The road from Bali
Now that the dust is beginning to settle on the road that will lead from Bali to Copenhagen in December 2009, where the world is set to agree a new global climate deal, and the euphoria of seeing the US yielding under global pressure has begun to fade, the question is emerging of whether Bali actually accomplished what it set out to achieve.
So, was Bali a success? I give my take on Bali on the latest Climate Podcast from Nature, which covers highlights from the two weeks of talks as well as a round-up on what was agreed at the eleventh hour.
On ClimateBiz, James Murray takes the pragmatic view that it’s too early to tell:
There are still plenty of reasons to be confident that a solid successor to Kyoto will be agreed in 2009, but at the same time any Chinese leader commenting in 200 years time on whether the Bali conference was a success or not may sadly be doing so from a coastal resort in the Himalayas.
Murray rightly points out that whether you judge Bali as a success depends on whether you had realistic expectations to begin with:
The fact is Bali has achieved everything it was ever going to achieve. This was always going to be a meeting about future meetings and the environmentalists and European politicians who worked themselves up into a frenzy of excitement over the prospect of getting emission targets agreed were always going to be left disappointed.
Over on Open Democracy, which features a diversity of informed views on the outcome of the Bali conference, Oliver Tickell of the Kyoto 2 initiative gives a far bleaker take on Bali:
And is the world saved? Far from it. It is going to hell in a handcart….If this is success, well, give me failure! At least failure would give us a chance to start again and devise an effective framework that really could cut greenhouse-gas emission effectively, while delivering the goods on adaptation, forests, soils, peatlands, farming and the decisive shift we need to a low carbon global economy.
Alun Anderson, former editor-in-chief of New Scientist, agrees with Tickell:
Was Bali a success? Absolutely not, unless you were one of the diplomats present who could reasonably define success as the avoidance of complete failure - and by a last-minute turnaround too.
But some remain optimistic. David Steven of Global Deal, who blogged from the Bali conference, remains optimistic that a commitment to emissions reductions from parties to the Kyoto Protocol, combined with a shift in the US administration next year, could hold the key to real cuts being agreed in Copenhagen:
By early 2009, each country should have indicated the depth of emission cuts it is prepared to put on the table. That will give the Kyoto club something very powerful to take to a new American president, desperate to heal rifts caused by the George W Bush administration. It will also provide the "leadership" that could unlock a contribution from the major developing countries.
Writing today in the New Statesman, climate change writer Mark Lynas shares this optimism:
In just one year, a new president will move into the White House, with a new climate policy. By the time negotiations conclude in Copenhagen in 2009, the political landscape could look very different, leading to a consensus on long-term targets that includes every government in the world.
Back to Open Democracy, where Saleemel Huq and Camilla Toulin of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) take a moderate view, highlighting the importance of the road ahead:
The devil is, as always, in the detail. That is why two years of almost continuous, tough negotiations are in prospect before a deal emerges in Copenhagen in 2009. It will need all of us - in business,NGOs, research, media, citizens - to keep a close watch on our leaders to ensure that they do not revert to defending narrow interests at the expense of the planet's and humanity's future well-being.
We’ll be bringing you more on the response to Bali on the next Climate Podcast from Nature, on Nature Reports Climate Change and here on Climate Feedback, so stay tuned!
Olive Heffernan
Comments
Comparing lifestyles in Bali and Davos……
Dear Friends,
This blog is helpful and refreshing. It becomes possible for people to see something clearly that is routinely obscured by the politicians, economic powerbrokers, celebrities, talking heads in the mass media and all the minions who benefit from unsustainable levels of per-capita overconsumption driven by the rampant spread of unbridled, seemingly endless economic globalization.
Perhaps someone in Davos in 2008 will notice what is being discussed in blogs like this one.
At the recent IPCC Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia quite a lot of criticism was directed at the lavish behavior of some of those in attendance. This is only a guess, but I am imagining that there is no place on Earth this year better than Davos, Switzerland to see so grotesque a “parade” of `virtuously’ rich, famous and powerful people living such a patently unsustainable lifestyle.
Sincerely,
Steve
Steven Earl Salmony
Posted by: Steven Earl Salmony, Ph.D., M.P.A. | January 16, 2008 10:15 PM
Some ideas on how to seek Economic Sustainability
1) Individual consumers need to consciously consume less of whatever it is that they consume. The government or NGOs should incentivate families to benchmark their current levels of consumption on various fronts, then reduce them. Consuming fewer air-miles each successive year should be high on our list of priorities, considering their huge addition to our individual carbon footprint. (As a cheap and effective alternative to flying, we may consider video-conferencing.)
2) Advertising aimed at making people buy more should be tapered off. Only adverts giving information should be allowed.
3) Roadside advertising hoardings should be reduced by 50%, and they should not be illuminated, as they use up precious energy for a relatively non-productive purpose.
4) Stop adding power generation capacities, whether thermal or otherwise. Freeze them at existing capacities and merely replace thermal capacities with wind-energy and solar generation capacities.
5) Stop registering new private vehicles. NGOs or government should incentivate people to give up private transport (for instance by giving them free passes on public transport with 10-year validity.)
6) Each year, taper off the numbers of private transport wheels by 10% or more, and enhance the capacity of public transport by 20%. This will result in a net improvement in the quality of transportation and reduced congestion each year. Also encourage biking and hiking by improving the quality of roadsides, and including rest facilities (lounges) every kilometre or two.
7) Enforce a one-child policy with both carrot and stick. This means that within the span of 60-70 years, population would go down by about 50%.
8) Build infrastructure for localised means of recreation such as playgrounds and stadiums, both indoor and outdoor. Encourage greater participation in physical and mental sporting activities by organizing competitions etc.
8) Civic and governmental efforts to improve quality of life are crucial to wean off people from the rat-race.
This is not saying that we shall have no more problems, and shall live happily ever after. Every situation and every lifestyle inevitably has its own set of problems... and we shall have to be alert and aware to deal with them as they arise.
Warmly,
Krish
http://globalwarming.rediffiland.com
http://friendlyghost.rediffiland.com
Posted by: Krishnaraj Rao | January 17, 2008 07:53 AM