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Archive by date: July 2008

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Climate war games

Nature reporter Jeff Tollefson is one contestant in a ‘climate war game’ taking place this week in Washington, where four teams representing China, India, Europe and the United States are negotiating a new deal on curbing global greenhouse gas emissions.

As Daniel Cressey reported yesterday on The Great Beyond blog:

"Today the participants woke up in the year 2015, and the outlook on global warming is significantly worse than it was just seven years earlier. ... Droughts, heavy rains, floods and other extreme weather events are on the rise. Some 250,000 refugees from Bangladesh are camped out on the border of India, two years after their country was ravaged by a typhoon." “It feels a bit like a grown-up version of Dungeons and Dragons to me, but I'm willing to give it a try,” says Tollefson.

If yesterday's roleplay scenario is anything to go by, it seems the EU and US may completely swap stances on climate policy by 2015! For an explanation of just how that might happen, check out Jeff's progress over on Nature's conference blog.

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Nature takes a closer look at coal in China

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A couple of weeks into the early reporting for a story on the prospects for advanced coal use in China, which I wrote for the latest issue of Nature, I started to get nervous. I had already talked to several Western researchers and observers, but our first major contact in China fell through (for reasons that were never entirely clear) and the dozens of emails I sent out to Chinese scientists and policymakers simply disappeared into a void.

But our thesis seemed sound, and everybody I talked to who had experience in China suggested that things would fall into place once I got on the ground, made a few contacts and then started working the network via cell-phone. In the end, we decided to give it a go.

Jane Qiu, a Nature correspondent stationed in Beijing, was able to set up several interviews in advance, and we had a clean coal conference in Shanghai as a backstop. And earlier reporting eventually paid off in a big way as a few key industry and university contacts came through, just days before I hopped on the plane.

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Slap on the wrist for 'Swindle'

A ruling came in yesterday on complaints about the UK documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle. On The Great Beyond, Katharine Sanderson notes that despite very negative headlines about the ruling,

you might say that Channel 4 got off pretty lightly for their documentary that suggested that global warming wasn’t caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Ofcom [the complaint board] charged the programme with misrepresenting certain scientists, which leads to those critical headlines, but ultimately the regulators said that the programme didn’t mislead viewers.

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A precipitous rise in extreme rainfall

cloudburst.jpgGlobal warming has been expected to bring not only droughts, but also floods, because what rain you get comes hammering down harder. And the downpours of the future now look to be even more drenching than expected.

A new Nature Geoscience paper (subscription required) considers the intensity of precipitation measured hour by hour for a century in the Dutch town of De Bilt. Theoretically, it’s thought that the intensity of rainfall, including the biggest cloudbursts, should rise by 7% for each degree Celsius that the temperature goes up. That’s based on a thermodynamics equation called the Clausius-Clapeyron relation - and it’s what you see if you look at extreme rainfall on the scale of days.

But it's the rainiest hours, not the rainiest days, that interest the paper's authors, Geert Lenderink and Erik Van Meijgaard of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. That turns out to make a difference.

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How to tell a climate story

Stop the presses! The rising profile of global warming and "unprecedented media emphasis on weather" are inspiring too many bright-eyed young meteorologists-to-be.

Score one backhanded hit for climate writers against "the tyranny of the news peg" (in Andy Revkin’s much-quoted phrase) and other obstacles to effective coverage.

Or sheer brute-force coverage, as some say. The Guardian today spends a special supplement worrying that the oversaturated public has "climate fatigue" (self-fulfillingly, I’m sure - their harping on this story is making me wonder if it's time to adapt The Economist's recession index to environmental journalism).

So how to tell a climate story that does manage to cut through the haze? That seems, a bit surprisingly, to be the central concern of a new indie docu-comedy.

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Nobelists talk energy

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Twenty-five Nobel laureates convened early this month on the island of Lindau, Germany, to meet with 567 talented young physicists from universities and laboratories around the world. After several lectures on Bose-Einstein condensates, high-energy particle physics, and carbon nanotubes, as well as presentations on biophysics from the winners of the 1988 Nobel prize in chemistry, seven laureates got on stage for a panel discussion of climate change and energy challenges.

Though they were all admittedly speaking beyond their fields of expertise, the scientists offered unfiltered political and social advice.

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EPA trashes its own report

In case anyone doubted the Bush administration’s resolve on climate policy during these last lame-duck months, they’ve just used the thump of a 500-page EPA report hitting the bin to hammer it home.

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Nature Climate Café in Tokyo

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Following the G8 summit last week, which I covered for Nature News, I headed back to Tokyo (thankfully through the right airport this time) to join a panel on climate change at the British Council organised by our Nature Asia office.

The idea of the Nature Climate Café was to inform and engage a diverse audience in some of the issues around climate science and policy. Each of the panellists, including myself, Dr Seita Emori of the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan and Mitsutaka Fujita, a freelance journalist, gave a brief talk on climate science, climate prediction and communicating climate change.

I spoke about climate science and what we’re doing at Nature on communicating climate science and its wider implications. Emori san, who primarily works on climate prediction and is well used to engaging with the public and the media, is the host of a newly produced (and quite Gore-esque) simulation on climate change, available both in Japanese and English. He gave a visually compelling talk on the impacts of a warmer planet, while Fujita san challenged the audience with a thought-provoking exercise on how print and broadcast media differ in their communication of climate change.

Once the more formal talks were over, the audience had a chance to fire questions at us and that’s when we got down to the real discussions.

One of the issues that really popped out of this for me was the difference in how the mainstream media represents climate change in Japan and Britain (just to be clear I’m talking generalities here, so the Daily Telegraph is out). The general feeling was that on the whole the Japanese media reported the outcome of the G8 summit more favourably, with about a 50/50 split on whether it was a weak or strong statement, than the British (and international) media, who mostly gave it the thumbs down. A couple of people commented that this is likely due to Japanese journalists not challenging the status quo.

Also of interest was a question from the audience on whether journalists should include sceptics for balance when reporting on climate change, a point on which Fujita san and I differed somewhat. When asked, quite a number of the attendees were sceptical about the importance and/or cause of climate change, but then despite the fact that most British papers don’t feel the need include a random sceptic for balance, a recent poll suggests that the majority of Britons are still confused on the issue.

Also discussed was whether the G8 summit was successful. Emori san did a nice job of explaining the rationale for various emissions reduction targets and pointed out that all too often the media wrongly claims that the IPCC has called for a 50-80% cut on 1990 levels by 2050. None the less, many of the IPCC scientists have called for this level of reduction in their own capacity, which is a point I thought worth mentioning.

I personally found the panel extremely worthwhile. The audience was really engaged and interested, and we were bombarded with a range of questions afterwards from the importance of cows letting off methane to the role of solar variation. At my end, I found the translation a little tricky sometimes, but I hope it mostly worked in reverse and that we managed to make climate change that bit clearer for those who joined us.

Olive Heffernan

Image: Nature Climate Cafe. Credit: Chris Gilloch.

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Solar cells: thin is in

color solar_DONNA COVENEY MIT.jpgThin-film solar cell technology is starting to get hot. This week in Science, a paper by Marc Baldo and friends at MIT applies thin films, stuffed with organic dyes, to a piece of glass. This concentrates the light to just the edges, where small amounts of expensive PV materials can soak up the rays as much as they like. (see Nature news story)

This, the authors say, could provide solar power at, or below, the magic US$1 per watt that everyone in the industry talks about. But they had better get a move on because other firms are claiming to almost be there already. And the industry is full of competition for heavy investment, even in flaky economic times.

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Biodiversity vs. carbon sinks - an Oregon tale

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When I tell people I grew up in Oregon, they usually have one of two reactions. Some faces tense as they try to place the state on their mental US map somewhere around Nevada (actually it’s on the Pacific coast, above California). Others light up because they’re about to say, “Oh, it’s beautiful there!”

If you don’t mind drizzling rain or hay fever - so much grass seed is grown in my native Willamette Valley that in summer the local paper prints the pollen count next to the weather forecast - it really can be pretty nice. There's a new PNAS article straight out of that valley, balancing the benefits of conserving its various lovely natural landscapes - wetlands, prairie, oak savannah, and conifer forests.

Wetlands.jpgManaging land use to encourage these ecosystems can boost biodiversity and create carbon sinks that help mitigate climate change.

No, strike that: it can boost biodiversity or create sinks.

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The global warming signal minus the El Niño noise

Andrew Revkin of the New York Times has been wondering whether climatologists could help turn down the “rhetorical noise” on recent temperature trends:

Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short-term cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades-long graph of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short-term up-and-down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.

He queried Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate, who’s pondered how to reduce the noise (and beat the rhetoric) on climate trends before. Schmidt thought of the recent Nature paper in which David Thompson et al. removed ENSO fluctuations from the sea surface temperature record (and uncovered an abrupt 1945 temperature drop that they traced to buckets used to collect seawater after World War II).

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G8 Hokkaido Summit: developing nations reject deal

Toyako, Japan

The climate vision put forward by G8 leaders here in Toyako, Japan yesterday has recieved widespread criticism for failing to make clear its commitment to cutting greenhouse gases.

Developing nations, led by China and India, rejected the deal outright ahead of today's major economies meeting where they met with G8 nations to discuss targets for greenhouse gases and the respective efforts that would be required of rich and poor nations, as well as emerging economies.

Despite the inclusion of a goal for 50% cuts by 2050 in the G8 declaration, it's not at all clear what this alledged target means. If, as suggested by Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, they are intending to cut emissions by 50% of current levels, then that's not nearly as ambitious as cuts based on a 1990 baseline.

The statement, which seems purposefully vague, also fails to clarify which nations would have to make the deepest cuts in emissions to reach this global target of 50% and whether the target would be legally binding. Responding to the offer, Mexico, Brazil, India, China and South Africa said yesterday that G8 nations should slash their emissions by 80% by 2050 and set firm nearer term targets if they are to agree on a global deal.

As a result, US President Bush's meeting of major economies made no progress beyond their meeting held June in Seoul.

I've reported the full story for Nature News and will provide a link here once it's online. All for now...it's getting really late here...


Olive Heffernan


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G8 Hokkaido Summit: Mass media confusion over climate proposal

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Toyako, Japan –

At about 4pm today, just over half way into the the latest gathering of the G8 Summit, leaders released a draft communiqué on climate change.

In the run up to the Summit, it looked as though the more immediate problems of oil prices and global food shortages would bump climate change off the G8 agenda. But with climate change having taken centre stage at the talks, the mood has been reasonably hopeful that a statement due for release today would go somewhat beyond the agreement made by the same clique of rich nations last year in Heiligendamm, Germany.

Yet the proposal seems to simultaneously take a step forward and backward, which perhaps would explain the wide variety of media reports, some calling it a success, others highlighting its flaws and others perhaps undecided – see this report from the BBC, which appears to have been republished (Google link reads: G8 agrees tough action on climate, but header reads: G8 aims to halve greenhouse gases).


I’ve reported the full story for Nature, but in brief, the down side is that the document seems to actually take a step back from last year’s declaration by the G8 to ‘seriously consider’ cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 50% of 1990 levels by 2050. This agreement, which unlike its predecessor includes the US, commits to a vision of halving emissions by 2050, but doesn’t specify a baseline year. When questioned on the baseline year, Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda said earlier today that it was 2005, rather than the UN framework year of 1990.

And despite international pressure to set specific, clear nearer-term targets for reducing emissions, the statement merely recognizes ‘aspirational’ mid-term goals, with no mention of dates or the level of cuts needed. Given that seven of the G8 nations agreed to work toward cutting emissions by 25-40% of 1990 levels by 2020 in Bali last December, its seems that they’ve had to make a large concession to appease the US in this forum.

On the plus side, though, the US has agreed to the declaration, which is a small step forward from last year. And the document does recognize the need for mid-term targets, even if it hasn’t been specific on what those should be or what ‘mid-term’ means.

Tomorrow, the statement will be rolled out as the basis of discussions with eight other ‘big polluting’ major economies, who will join the G8 for the major economies meeting. Opinion here is divided on whether the draft communiqué goes far enough to meet their expectations of the big eight.

Olive Heffernan

Image: G8 leaders at working lunch on climate change. Image courtesy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

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Parched Australia told to trade emissions

Muja_Power_Station.jpgRoss Garnaut, the down-under equivalent of Nicholas Stern, offered up a draft report Friday on the costs of climate change in Australia and an emissions trading scheme for dealing with it.

The reaction? Garnaut mania, says Daniel Cressey on The Great Beyond. The report's server was overloaded at the time of this blogging - despite the gauntlet of rewrites that still stands between this document and actual legislation, as Daniel points out.

If global warming goes unmitigated, Garnaut figures projected GDP will drop 4.8% and real wages 7.8% by 2100. Agriculture is one sector set to take a beating - and that's in the context of droughts that have already dug into Asia's rice supply (thanks to Grist for link; more on climate, energy and global food supply here).

The proposed emissions market has a broad scope, including transportation and petroleum products. It won't be a revenue-raiser though - households are supposed to get half the proceeds to offset rising prices, businesses another 30% against international competition, and the last 20% goes to developing and commercializing new technologies. For wonkier details, see Reuters' factbox.

Worth noting: At the national level, what Garnaut's recommending is a short-term band-aid plan. From the report summary:

Australia's mitigation effort is our contribution to keeping alive the possibility of an effective global agreement on mitigation.

(A bit bleak, no? Other countries have called their climate policies leadership, not life support.)
Any effort prior to effective, comprehensive global agreement should be short, transitional, and directed at achievement of global agreement.

Australian carbon trading won't make the difference between ruin and recovery, says the report - only a global emissions market will. For any hint of progress on that front, look to this week's G8 summit, where Olive Heffernan is blogging from Hokkaido for Climate Feedback.

Anna Barnett

Image: Coal-fired power plant in Western Australia. If carbon consumption goes unmitigated, says the Garnaut report, coal-addicted Oz can expect quadrupled emissions, mostly from power. Credit: Nachoman-au on Wikimedia.

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G8 Hokkaido Summit: Tale of the unexpected

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Toyako, Japan-

Tomorrow, delegates are expected to finally get down to the real discussions here at the G8 Summit in Hokkaido, with climate change scheduled as the topic of a working lunch. Experts here are musing over the various ways in which leaders could move forward on the issue.

Kim Carstensen, Director of the Global Climate Initiative for conservation organisation WWF International, said that they hope that constructive proposals being put forward by developing nations, such as India,will spur concrete engagement from rich nations. Specifically WWF’s position statement echoes recent calls from scientists for at least 80% reductions on 1990 emissions levels by 2050, though in reality Carstensen says he’s be happy if they agreed to at least 50% cuts by mid century.

Also monitoring the talks here is Philip Clapp, Deputy Managing Director at the Pew Environment Group, a non-profit organization in Washington DC. According to Clapp, a new proposal put forward by developing nations, however, is being considered by negotiators. The proposal, expected to be issued as a formal statement here tomorrow afternoon, could be the key to resolving the issue of how to bring developing nations on board a deal with emissions targets while ensuring rich nations take the lead.

In the proposed deal, developing nations including China would be willing to slash emissions by 50% of 1990 levels by 2050 if unindustrialized nations are willing to agree to a clear specific emissions reduction target by 2020. And given that they haven’t said what the 2020 target would be, the idea would likely be acceptable to many of the delegations here – with one exception; the US.

“It would have to be some sort of package”, says Clapp, who remains optimistic that an agreement could be reached. It will be a “difficult agreement”, he says, and is “entirely depends on what President Bush is willing to give. If the President wanted to enumerate he could have an historic agreement. If not, then this is the end of the road for him on climate change”.

But as Clapp acknowledges “Presidents do some unexpected things when faced with the end of their terms”.

Olive Heffernan

Image: US President George Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda meet today at the G8 Summit in Hokkaido

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G8 Hokkaido Summit: Report from a remote outpost

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Toyako, Japan-

I finally arrived at the G8 summit this morning after somewhat of an arduous journey. Not that I didn’t think it would be a schlep to Hokkaido from London, but I hadn’t quite bargained on the detour that was in store.

Having handed over the logistics completely to our trusted travel agent, I sort of hoped I’d end up in the right place. On taking off from Tokyo, though, I decided to plan my journey from the airport (somewhat late, maybe, I know!) and realised I was headed for a remote outpost nearer to Russia than the location of the G8 Summit. Though still in Hokkaido, Wakkanai is a small fishing port known for spotting harp seals and drying kelp; it’s about as far north as you can go in Japan, some 60km from Russia, and a good eight hours overland from my intended destination.

Luckily for me, an Italian reporter and a Nigerian sherpa had found themselves in the same predicament, and so we shared the long trip back, which was fun, if a bit like something from an Aki Kaurismaki film.

It certainly seems that the organisers of this year’s summit went of their way to host it in a remote location where the customary protests that accompany the event could be kept at a distance. Few protestors reached the resort of Toyako itself, where world leaders arrived yesterday, but more than 1,000 marched in Sapporo (the city I should have flown in to!) over the weekend.

The media are for the most part more than an hour away from the actual event in mountain lodges, and security measures for photo opportunities are super tight. Today has largely been taken up with formalities such as meetings between individual heads of states, photo shoots and fine dining experiences (whilst discussing world food shortages, no doubt).

But talks should get down to details tomorrow…

Olive Heffernan

Image: Train station at Wakkanai, Hokkaido

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One earth, one US agency

240px-The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17.jpgThe next US president should merge two huge government research agencies to bring forth a new independent and comprehensive Earth science body - that’s the idea put forth in a commentary by former agency heads in Science yesterday (subscription required). They call for NOAA and the USGS become a single Earth Systems Science Agency, ESSA.

That merger would ring a few nostalgic bells, since NOAA was once also called ESSA (for Environmental Science Services Administration). And it would bureaucratically marry the atmospheric and ocean research at NOAA to the terrestrial, freshwater and biological studies at the USGS. To face the daunting agenda of “climate change, sea-level rise, altered weather patterns, declines in freshwater availability and quality, and loss of biodiversity,” the authors say, the US needs massive scientific support from an integrated, streamlined institution - one as seamless as the Earth system itself.

But would ESSA really produce better science? The proposal’s authors have tempting suggestions for changes under a new agency, not least upping the amount of money that would leave the building: grants to outside researchers total a few percent of current NOAA and USGS budgets, they told me, but they want the sum to be at least 25% at ESSA. They also call for Big Science modelling and monitoring programs, and even for research into breakthrough green tech, a la DARPA.

Such plans would have to be hashed out over and above the decision to put ESSA together, however. Meanwhile, trying to mesh the USGS and NOAA missions could have interesting effects. What would happen, for example, to NOAA's marine fisheries programs? NOAA is housed in the Department of Commerce, where commercial fishing interests are sometimes seen to clash with conservation. Mark Schaefer, former USGS director and the ESSA proposal’s lead author, said creating the hoped-for independent, nonregulatory agency might mean moving fisheries regulation to the Fish and Wildlife Service in the Department of the Interior, where protecting natural resources is key.

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G8 Hokkaido Summit: Climate Feedback coverage

Next week, here on Climate Feedback, I'll be reporting directly from Hokkaido, Japan's nothernmost island, where leaders from rich nations and emerging economies will be meeting to discuss some of the world’s most pressing problems.

Gathering from July 7-9 will be the Group of Eight (G8) - an exclusive but informal bloc of nations, comprising the world's seven leading economies Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Russia. This year's summit will extend to an additional eight industrialised nations on the final day to facilitate US President George Bush’s Major Economies Meeting.

Climate Change is expected to top the agenda of both meetings. Pressure is on G8 delegates to go above and beyond the political breakthrough of the 2007 Summit in Heilegendamm, Germany, where leaders agreed to seriously consider slashing emissions by half of 1990 levels by 2050. And George Bush seems keen to leave some sort of a legacy on tackling climate change through this meeting of major economies (or just any sort of a legacy other than Iraq actually).

But are binding emissions a realistic expectation of the G8? Will oil prices and global food shortages bump global warming down the agenda? And what progress on climate change is likely under the current US administration? I've written a preview in this week's Nature on what's being hoped for, and expected, from what should be a very interesting round of talks.

Tune in here from next Monday to follow the events as they take place.

Olive Heffernan