Curbing emissions, the old-fashioned way
Massive economic collapse is by no means the preferred method for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but there’s no denying that shuttering plants, halting shipments and laying off workers gets the job done. Indeed, the crisis is poised to provide a reprieve, however temporary, from the alarmingly rapid growth in emissions witnessed in recent years.
It’s too early to assess the overall impact, but New Carbon Finance, a branch of the London-based consultancy New Energy Finance, has put out a pair of analyses ( press releases here and here) that provide a little insight into what is happening in the United States and Europe. Emissions fell by 1.3 percent in the US and by 3 percent in Europe last year, according to NEF's calculations, and things look even better (okay, worse) in 2009.
The estimates are fairly simple in the United States. Gasoline consumption in the transportation sector fell by 3.2 percent thanks to the spike in oil prices. Emissions from the electricity sector declined by 2.4 percent due to lower industrial demand, more renewables and even less use of the nation's remaining oil-fired power stations. And given that emissions track fairly well with overall economic activity, this is just the beginning. Citing projections that the US economy could shrink by 1.6 to 2 percent next year, NEF says it could be several years before emissions return to previous levels.
The picture is more complex in Europe, which has not only a floundering economy but also an emissions trading system at work. NEF suggests the economic downturn is responsible for a little less than a third of the decline (due to reduced industrial output) and attributes the rest to the European trading scheme (including a shift away from coal and toward natural gas-fired electricity).
What all of this means in the long run is anybody's guess at this point. We might not have a global picture for some time, but it's safe to say that emissions in places like China and India and other rapidly developing economies will, at a minimum, slow their previously meteoric rise. On the other hand, the capital we need to fund clean energy technologies moving forward has dried up, and there could be less political will to institute regulations that are really going to drive that investment. The question might well be whether we'll be facing the right direction when we climb out of this hole a few years hence.
