Using data on 6,500 droughts, floods and other disasters dating back to 1980, Oxfam predicts another 133 million people will be in peril by 2015. Dealing with this will require an increase in aid spending from 2006 levels of $14.2 billion to £25 billion a year.
“Any such projection is not an exact science, but what is clear is that substantially more people may be affected by disasters in the very near future, as climate change and environmental mismanagement create a proliferation of droughts, floods and other disasters,” says the new report. “And more people will be vulnerable to them because of their poverty or location.”
In addition to those people directly impacted by disasters, others will be put at risk by climate-related conflicts when climate change exacerbates more traditional security threats, says the ‘Right to Survive’ report. The projections are made by smoothing out the extremes of the historical disaster data and fitting a straight trend-line up to 2015 (graph below).