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Bangkok negotiations: US concedes on funding as accusations fly

At the ongoing pre-Copenhagen climate talks in Bangkok, the US has made a step towards resolving the deal-breaker issue of funds to help developing countries respond to climate change. The Guardian’s all over it, perhaps thirsting for some good news to break up the drumbeat of doubt we’ve heard lately on the climate policy front.

The slight but significant shift is that the US now agrees with developing countries that money for mitigation and adaptation should come through a new, single, independent fund administered at least partly by the UN. Before, the US had argued for sticking with existing funding bodies like the World Bank, an institution disfavoured by the global South for its policy of loaning, rather than aiding, money.

But critical questions on climate funding are still up in the air - not least the numbers to be written on the cheques. And on other issues, the US stands accused of putting on the brakes. As the AP reports, it is increasingly being recast in the familiar role of climate villain.

Details are few on the negotiations, which are sealed off from press. But an anonymous EU source told the Guardian last month that the US team is putting forward a new framework for the Copenhagen deal that would scupper Kyoto-style policy. Instead of working top-down to divide a global emission cut among countries, the US reportedly wants the deal to be a patchwork of national commitments, each with its own rules and timetables.

Add to this the long-running demand for emissions commitments from emerging economies like India and China, and they’ve got the developing world in a righteous fury. Yesterday, China was joined by the head of the G77 (which has grown from the eponymous 77 to a group of 130 developing states ) in a coordinated statement charging that rich nations collectively - not just the US - intend to kill Kyoto.

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Must-reads for Copenhagen

At the UN climate conference in Copenhagen this December, talk will turn to scientific, political and economic issues with a global reach and a long history — not easy to pick up from the daily news. We asked select experts on climate change what books we should be reading ahead of the big event.

Here's a peek at some well-informed desks, bookshelves and bedside tables. Read the full roundup here - and join in our pre-Copenhagen book club by commenting below.

When your last work led to an Oscar and Nobel Prize, anticipation is high on the sequel. And Al Gore's new book delivers, says Joe Romm, the voice of Climate Progress at the Centre for American Progress. Gore's Our Choice collects the most effective climate change solutions that policymakers could put in place now.

Tony Juniper, the campaigner and onetime director of Friends of the Earth, picks out Mark Lynas's Six Degrees (also a favorite of the Royal Society). The book vividly paints the changes expected as the world warms - revealing the practical implications of compromises we could see at Copenhagen.

A lively new book by an ex-oilman and geologist tells some of the insider history behind the UN talks - an eyewitness account of shifting views on climate change within the oil industry. Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell, says Brian Lovell's Challenged by Carbon is an instant tonic for 'climate change fatigue'.

Roger Pielke, Jr., a University of Colorado science-policy expert, argues that climate negotiators are failing to learn from history. He recommends the 1998 book Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott, which recites a litany of failed attempts at centralized planning.

Oliver Tickell's climate policy proposal Kyoto2 is just the thing a truly intelligent species would come up with, according to Mark Lynas, environmentalist and Six Degrees author. But it's nothing like what's on the table for December.

Can we 'solve the climate crisis'? In Why We Disagree About Climate Change, Mike Hulme of the University of East Anglia asserts that "climate change is not 'a problem' waiting for 'a solution'" but rather is an idea whose shape can differ completely depending on one's political and cultural biases. New York Times reporter and Dot Earth blogger Andrew Revkin recommends the book and sketches out its implications for Copenhagen.

In turn, Mike Hulme points to a book that looks beyond the usual dichotomy of climate change 'believers' and 'sceptics' to find a more fundamental split in thinking. John Foster's The Sustainability Mirage explores some crucial social and psychological realities of climate change that you won't be hearing much about during the conference.

Another good read when you want to lift your head from the trenches, the new book Whole Earth Discipline by Stewart Brand takes an overview of environmental issues in the twenty-first century. Former Nature editor (and sun-eater) Oliver Morton dubs it a lucid big picture put together with experience, wisdom and optimism.

Could you call yourself ready for Copenhagen without taking a look at the IPCC report? Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says their 2007 Synthesis Report - a sum-up of the masses of policy-relevant research reviewed by the three working groups - has perhaps been the panel's most effective report thus far in creating awareness across every section of society.


Here
are the book reviews in full. What do you think - are these the right reads to get ready for the conference? What others should be on the list?



Anna Barnett

Image: © iStockphoto / Pertunisas

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4 Degrees and Beyond: Adaptation to what?

If we are trying to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less but 4 degrees is possible even within some of our lifetimes, which world do we prepare for? Talks at today's session on adaptation took on the problem of the multiple futures that decision-makers have to face. Mark Stafford-Smith of CSIRO in Australia talked specifically about long-term decisions - such as planting and managing forests - where the best option depends on which way the climate goes later this century. If you expect strong mitigation that holds down warming, then you try to preserve today's forests and nurse them through, protecting them from fire and other threats. If a moderately high temperature is in store, forest composition will have to change and you can plant new species to facilitate that. With runaway climate change the best option could be opening up the forests to invading weeds and rapid, radical transformation.

This is no hypothetical choice. During February's raging wildfires in southeastern Australia, it appears that even the seed stores in the forest floor were destroyed in some burnt areas. Stafford-Smith recommends that conservation managers trying to bring these areas back to life should divide their efforts to follow all three approaches above. Such a hedging strategy may mean two-thirds of forest plans need to be abandoned and altered as the future unfolds, but it's better then putting all the trees in one basket.

Rob Swart of Wageningen University, The Netherlands, looked at hedging on a much larger scale - the plan Bs we could prepare in case of a true planetary emergency. From geoengineering schemes that risk severe side effects to extreme emissions reductions that would affect the climate only slowly and probably require tight government control, none of the options are attractive. But Swart thinks there should be an international process - separate and parallel to current UN climate policy - for countries to work out ahead of time how they would cooperate on such schemes. If left to a moment of panic, they're unlikely to be carried out thoughtfully and equitably.

Anna Barnett

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4 Degrees and Beyond: To flee the sea, or not to flee?

Immersing yourself in the impacts of extreme climate change can give rise to a certain amount of gallows humor. Conversation among my dinner companions last night turned to whether this week's 4 Degrees and Beyond conference or March's Copenhagen Climate Congress provided "more apocalypse for your conference fee". The far more serious question, of course, is how much upheaval and human suffering would come with the substantial warming that delegates here are contemplating. Some interesting talks today looked at the facets of sea level rise and population displacement.

Stephan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research had an intriguing update on a 2007 Science paper in which he'd come up with a new method for projecting sea level rise. Rahmstorf throws out any attempt to use complex climate models on this controversial problem and instead starts from scratch, with observed relationships between temperature rises and sea level rises. Now, working with Martin Vermeer of the University of Technology in Helsinki, he's upgraded the extremely simple equation he used in 2007 to an only slightly less simple equation - one that takes account of the rate of warming and the amount of water that humans sequester in reservoirs. They use this to reconstruct a remarkably faithful record the last millennium's sea levels.

Turning it to IPCC temperature projections, the team finds that sea level rise by 2100 could range, depending on the emissions scenario, from 0.75 to 1.9 metres, and a 4-degree world would likely see 0.98 to 1.3 metres of rise this century. A caveat: the recent sea-rise data that inspired and calibrated this equation and the past data that it explains don't include the full effects of melting ice sheets that could lie ahead. That means 0.75 to 1.9 metres may be a conservative estimate.

But if we're concerned with how creeping seas affect coastal populations, the amount of rise is not the only matter to settle. This was a key argument made by Francois Gemennes of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations in Paris. Gemennes' talk was based on a study of environmentally induced migration that I covered earlier this year. When it comes to climate refugees, he says, the numbers that are often tossed around - such as 200 million new migrants by 2050 - are based on the assumption that greater climate impacts will push more people around. What they aren't based on is empirical data about how populations respond to environmental change. But according to the recent EACH-FOR project - the first global-scale survey of environmental migrants - the size of impacts isn't the crucial variable at all: migration largely depends on policies making it possible for people to react to impacts by migrating. In particular, Gemennes argues, the poorest and most vulnerable will not be able to migrate unless they are given resources and exit routes - if we don't encourage migration as an adaptation strategy, they'll be trapped in the frying pan (or flooding delta).

The next event of the conference is a panel discussion on "4 degrees of climate change: alarmist or realist?", which I'll be tracking over on Twitter. Follow @annabarnett.

Anna Barnett

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4 Degrees and Beyond: How soon is it coming?

Unless major breakthroughs in policy, industry and individual behavior turn around our emissions trajectory pronto, this century could well see average global temperatures 4 degrees Celsius or more above their pre-industrial baseline. That's the starting point for the 4 Degrees and Beyond conference in Oxford this week. Here, 130 scientists and policy experts are taking a detailed look at a world warmed by twice the amount that's usually considered dangerous.

Putting weight behind the 4-degree premise was new modelling research presented this morning by Richard Betts of the UK Hadley Centre (press release, Guardian). Betts's team used a complex, coupled ocean-atmosphere model to simulate the IPCC's extreme-emissions A1FI scenario (the FI stands for fossil fuel intensive) - an emissions trajectory that's previously been run only on simpler models. It's time to take this scenario seriously, argues Betts, given that our emissions are running at the upper end of what the IPCC projected a decade ago.

They also tried out weakening climate sinks on land and sea - feedbacks that are increasingly apparent in recent research, Betts says. Depending on the strength of the feedbacks, 4 degrees of average warming could be reached well before 2100 - as early as 2060 in a worst case scenario, and in the 2070s according to the team's best guess. Regional warming would be far greater, they found - 7 degrees in many areas, up to 10 in western and southern Africa, and 10 or more in the Arctic.

Sessions afterwards started sketching out consequences in detail. Philip Thornton of the University of Edinburgh looked at agriculture in Africa, where projected impacts are predictably devastating, with yields falling over 50% for certain crops and crop failure years growing more frequent in many regions. Adaptations for this amount of change are a big question mark. Intensive agriculture in highlands - among the few spots that will benefit - may be one possibility for preserving the food supply.

Meanwhile in Finland - where you might expect balmier weather to be a boon - intense climate change may also prove a curse to farmers, reports Reimund Rotter of MTT Agrifood Research Finland. The picture there is complicated - the possible responses depend on many variables. A new type of barley that might compensate for losses to rising temperature or drought would only work in certain soil types, for example. But it's clear that the North as well as the South will have its problems with the radically different 4-degree world.

Anna Barnett

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Google Earth launches climate change tours

A newly launched series of Google Earth tours will map out the projected impacts of climate change worldwide and look at mitigation and adaptation options. Here's a brief intro, narrated in the light Tennessee drawl of Al Gore:

The full length intro is here, with more tours to come. Google is also inviting netizens to talk back about climate change on a new YouTube channel.

While you're playing with climate science layers on Google Earth, you may want to check out our interactive map of polar ice coring sites where researchers have extracted hundreds of millennia of climatic history.

Anna Barnett

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Climate summits underwhelming, say leaders

After a banner week of international summits, a great leap forward on climate policy has yet to materialize, and some players are expressing a growing frustration.

US President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao both gave big speeches at a UN meeting in New York on Tuesday, but they didn’t make any bold leadership moves.

Jeff Tollefson has a briefing in Nature News on what went down:

Everybody is looking for signs of progress from the two biggest emitters, who together account [for] roughly 40% of emissions, but neither president offered the kind of commitments needed to re-energize the talks. Obama was in the unenviable position of needing to make bold promises before the US Congress has weighed in on the issue. Nonetheless, he declined to acknowledge, let alone address head on, the challenges he is facing on the domestic front.

For his part, Hu largely underscored existing policies, promising to expand forests, produce 15% of the country's power using renewable energy and decrease energy intensity per unit of gross domestic product by a "notable margin" between now and 2020. All of these would substantially reduce Chinese emissions compared with baseline forecasts, and China is beginning to win some praise for its energy policies. Nonetheless, cumulative emissions are expected to continue rising, and Hu made no reference to any specific emissions targets or a date by which the country might try to stabilize its emissions.

As Jeff explains, almost everyone agrees with these statements, but they are old hat. And the clock is ticking. Says campaigner Steve Howard, founder of The Climate Group, in a New York Times story on the summit: “It was really great to have the vision, but with just 70 days left to Copenhagen, it is time to put some substance on the table. The two most important countries on this issue are being guarded in their positions.”

Obama’s speech did impress one observer, at least. Fidel Castro praised him as “brave” for acknowledging that the US has been slow to act on climate change.

Following closely was the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, which started yesterday evening and continues today. With financial policy expected to take up much of the agenda, hopes aren’t high for a climate breakthrough there either.

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Q&A: France unveils carbon tax

Over on Nature News, Declan Butler has a detailed briefing on the new carbon tax unveiled in France last week:

France is set to become the first major European economy to implement a carbon tax — a levy on activities that emit substantial amounts of carbon dioxide.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, announced on 10 September that the tax would come into effect at the start of 2010. The tax draws largely on recommendations made on 28 July by an expert panel commissioned by the government, and chaired by the former Socialist prime minister, Michel Rocard.

Nature discussed the tax with Jean Jouzel, a member of the Rocard panel, director of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute near Versailles, and also the French representative on the executive of the International Panel on Climate Change.

The French carbon tax will be levied at a rate of €17 (US$25) per tonne of CO2 — the current market price. Is that enough to change people's carbon-emitting habits?

What's most important is that a carbon tax of some sort is going to be introduced. Starting at €32 per tonne, as our report recommended, would have been more courageous. The economists on the panel considered that €40 was the minimum for the carbon tax to be effective in changing consumer behaviour, so €32 was itself already a compromise. It's true that the plan is to phase in higher carbon prices over time, but Sarkozy failed to give further details. In the longer term, by around 2020, we need to reach a price of €100–€200 per tonne.

Read the full interview here.

Anna Barnett

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Sunburnt Southern Hemisphere in 2095

NASA_ozonehole.jpgGlobal warming doesn’t just change the weather, it also affects the ozone layer. According to a detailed new modelling study, by 2095 the springtime UV index (UVI) could go up by as much as 20% on the southernmost section of the planet, as altered atmospheric circulation pushes more stratospheric ozone into the Northern Hemisphere. That’s nearly half the UVI increase caused by ozone-eating pollutants in the late twentieth century - but coming from climate change alone.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience this week (subscription), Michaela Hegglin and Theodore Sheperd at the University of Toronto used the Canadian Middle Atomosphere Model, which fully resolves stratospheric circulation, to project ozone changes under the IPCC’s medium-emissions A1B scenario. As climate change unfolded, the model showed increased atmospheric upwelling in the tropics, and what went up in the tropical stratosphere came down disproportionately on Earth’s northern half. As a result, even though the damage done last century by chlorofluorocarbons and other nasties is expected to heal in the next several decades, the ozone layer over the Southern Hemisphere will remain thinner than its pristine state circa 1965.

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Interview: Dieter Helm

climate.2009.86-i1.jpgOxford economist Dieter Helm co-edits an upcoming book, The Economics and Politics of Climate Change, that he says takes "a colder and harder look at the challenge". In a Q&A on Nature Reports Climate Change this week, Helm gives his take on a long-term strategy for reducing emissions. Here's an excerpt:


Where, in your view, has policy gone wrong?

Let's remember what lies behind Copenhagen. The Kyoto Protocol measures countries' production of carbon, not consumption. It's no accident the Europeans like Kyoto. It's a set of measures which, as they de-industrialize and production moves to countries like China, makes them look good. But the carbon consumption record of Europe, once you take those imports back, is pretty awful. That's why Kyoto looks like a success, and yet it hasn't caused even a blip in the emissions path.

Do we also need to re-think climate economics?

What we have learnt is that politicians tend to choose the most expensive options first. Faced with climate change, what's our solution? In Europe, it's to devote most of our energies to a rapid build-out of wind power. This is the sort of thing that makes nuclear power look cheap. Climate change is about the massive increase of coal burning internationally, especially the growth of China and India fuelled by coal-based energy — and America too, where the Obama plans are also small relative to the problem.

What exactly will windmills across Europe do to address that overwhelmingly dominant effect? Of course they'll play some role, but it'll probably take a couple of weeks for China to add sufficient new coal power stations to cancel out any renewables effort in Britain. It's time to grow up. It's time to realize that coal is where the core of the problem lies, and to think cleverly about solutions towards that.


Read the full interview here.

Anna Barnett

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Why a climate crisis is like an epileptic seizure

tippingpoint.bmpTipping points - those critical thresholds in a complex system where a small nudge can cause a catastrophic response - are perhaps the most fearsome threats to the Earth’s climate, but they also haunt ecosystems, financial markets, and even sufferers of medical conditions such as epilepsy and asthma. A fascinating review in Nature today (subscription) sketches out the mathematical patterns on which many of these instances seem to be based, and describes giveaway signs that might warn us to change course before the system tips.

One common warning sign, for example, is flickering between the pre-tipping point state and the post-tipping point state. In climatology, abrupt changes traced in records of the Earth’s past suggest the planet has regularly gone through tipping points, such as the sudden warm-ups that change glacial periods into deglaciations. Earlier this year researchers reported in Nature Geoscience that rapid flickering signaled the end of Earth’s most recent cold spell, the so-called Younger Dryas period. The authors of the new review, led by Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in The Netherlands, say that in a similar way, debilitating epileptic seizures can be preceded by frequent small symptomless seizures - the ‘flickers’ of the epileptic brain.

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Consumer boom in hotter seas

Mysis2kils.jpgAs warming starts to shake up marine food webs, ecologists say it may give an unexpected boost to some fisheries - but also make them more precarious.

This is one of the implications of a new experimental study in PloS Biology that takes a panoramic point of view. Rather than tackling complex food webs species by species, the authors look at how warming affects growth and metabolism across the board within the broad groups of organisms at the base of the web.

Mary O’Connor of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and colleagues turned up temperatures in outdoor containers holding phytoplankton, the ocean’s primary producers, and bacteria and zooplankton, the smallest consumers. Warming of two to six degrees drove up the productivity of phytoplankton, as expected. But consumers increased their growth even more. Zooplankton retain only about 10% of the biomass they eat, so total biomass declined as the hungry hordes munched on the phytoplankton.

Zooplankton are fish food. O’Connor tells New Scientist, "The effect could be translated up the food chain" to a gain in fisheries, but “that top-heavy food web structure could be less stable, and crash all together." The group found that the consumer boom was much greater when nutrients were added, so they suggest that food webs in nutrient-poor waters - such as the ocean surface - may be more resilient to climate change.

The study is timely: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center recently announced that world ocean temperatures were the hottest on record last month. The temperatures beat the 20th-century average by nearly 0.6 degrees Celsius. According to AP, meteorologists are attributing the record high to a combination of global warming trends, an El Nino phase just getting started, and other natural variation. Apparently, an unusual and unexplained weather pattern this summer is concentrating warmth over the ocean while land surfaces stay cooler.

And this won’t be a brief blip in sea temperatures:

Breaking heat records in water is more ominous as a sign of global warming than breaking temperature marks on land, because water takes longer to heat up and does not cool off as easily as land.

"This warm water we're seeing doesn't just disappear next year; it'll be around for a long time," said climate scientist Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria in British Columbia.

Anna Barnett

Image: Mysis zooplankton / Uwe Kils, Creative Commons license

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Time to unleash seabed methane?

methanehydrate.jpgA new reservoir of fossil fuel could be ready to tap much sooner than previously thought. R&Ders have been talking up natural gas extraction from methane hydrates - a solid form of the greenhouse gas, found tucked away beneath the sea floor where low temperature and high pressure keep it stable.

Following an enthusiastic Congressional testimony, Ray Boswell of the US Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has a commentary in Science on hydrates’ potential as an energy source. But methane hydrates are also making headlines this week as a worrying harbinger of climate change. Some scientists have warned that ocean warming could destabilize hydrates and send methane gas bubbling into the ocean. Now a team led by Graham Westbrook of the University of Birmingham has spotted over 250 such gas plumes near Svalbard, Norway - echoing a similar observation from a group in Siberia earlier this year.

Much of the released gas dissolves in the water column, but any portion that reaches the air could amplify warming.
By drilling for hydrates, could we wake a sleeping giant? Boswell doesn’t tackle this question head on, but he offers some relevant points.

First off, hydrates in the Arctic - where gas plumes have been seen - are hard to get at. Before they go messing with the permafrost lid that protects the vast northern stores of methane, prospectors will find more enticing targets, says Boswell. Specifically, it’s hydrates found in sandy deposits in the Gulf of Mexico that are raising hopes at NETL.

Hydrate-bearing sands were first spotted off Japan in 1999. By recent estimates the Gulf of Mexico holds 190 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in such sands - over 300 times the amount of gas the US burns annually. An April expedition to probe the Gulf's deposits found promising pockets of highly saturated hydrates. There are technical and economic hurdles to extracting this gas, says Boswell, but many could be overcome with existing technology. That's a big difference from the hydrates known a decade ago, which were dispersed across muddy fields or packed into solid mounds.

Methane from sandy hydrates may also be easier to control. Boswell writes:

These resevoirs are commonly buried many hundreds of meters below the sea floor and enclosed in a matrix of impermeable sediments that help to prevent the escape of released methane. The most prospective gas hydrate deposits are also those that are most effectively buffered from environmental change.
In other words, drillers are keen to avoid the escape of methane - they want to get it to customers who’ll burn it.

Speaking of which, does the world need another fossil fuel reservoir? Not if you’re hoping our supplies will run out in time to save the climate. But with the world facing dwindling oil reserves and a sluggish start on renewables, Boswell implies the gas could fill an important gap: “hydrates may offer an important ‘bridging’ fuel that will help ease the transition to the sustainable energy supplies of the future.”

Anna Barnett

Image: Methane actively dissociating from a hydrate mound / National Energy Technology Lab

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China cuts methane emissions from rice fields

news.2009.833-2.jpgRice paddies produce an estimated 20% of the methane released by human activities. But according to data presented at a Beijing climate conference last week, a switch to certain farming practices could erase most of those emissions. Jane Qiu reports on the research over at Nature News.

Earlier this year, Xiaoyuan Yan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and colleagues came out with a notably low estimate of global rice-paddy methane emissions. Unlike other surveys, this one took into account the methane-busting practices of draining paddies mid-season and applying rice straw between crops.

Qiu’s story highlights work from a different American-Chinese team - Chris Butenhoff and Aslam Khalil of Portland State University and Xiong Zhenqin of Nanjing Agricultural University. Mid-season paddy draining has been common in China since the 1980s, the group points out, because it increases rice yield and saves water. By looking at the spread of paddy-draining and straw-strewing practices and at experiments that show the effects of such techniques, the researchers estimate that methane emissions from Chinese paddies have fallen nearly 70% from 1980 levels.

The catch? Drained paddies emit more nitrous oxide, another potent greenhouse gas. Still, the net effect is equivalent to taking 270 million tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere annually. But outside China, mid-season drainage is not commonly practiced. Low-hanging fruit, anyone?

Anna Barnett

Image: Punchstock

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When money grows on trees

climate.2009.78-i1.jpgIn this year’s series of UN climate talks - the latest of which took place last week in Bonn - one of the issues negotiators are sinking their teeth into is a source of greenhouse gases that has previously been sidestepped. Chopping and burning trees causes an estimated one-fifth of global emissions, and slowing down deforestation could be the cheapest and quickest way to keep a substantial load of gas out of the atmosphere. With this in mind, the Bali meeting in 2007 called for a decision on forests to be made by the time the 2009 talks wrap up in Copenhagen this December.

But deciding to do something about it and agreeing on what needs to be done are two very different matters, as Mark Schrope writes in a feature on Nature Reports Climate Change this week. He explains:


Some of issues raised are rooted in serious ethical and environmental concerns, such as how to protect indigenous people and ensure compliance. But much of what was being mulled over boils down to money: adequately addressing deforestation will require a new flow of billions of dollars from developed to developing nations. Developing countries are scrambling to position themselves to receive as much as possible, while developed nations are doing their best to ensure they get what they want from their investments. The result is a complex debate that is likely to grow more heated as countries move from stating their positions to settling on an agreement that everyone can live with beyond December.

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Timeline: Ice memory

Some of scientists’ gravest concerns about future climate change are rooted in the past. Records studied by paleoclimatologists reveal that the more extreme possibilities for this century and beyond — temperatures soaring, ice sheets vanishing, fertile lands withering into deserts — were realized previously on Earth when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels surged. At this summer's AGU Chapman Conference on Abrupt Climate Change, researchers described this turbulent history through all manner of proxies - ice, tree rings, corals, marine and lake sediments, among others. But few talks went without a slide showing the wiggly line of a deep ice core.

Each proxy has its own merits, but ice cores offer records of climatic history whose detail and completeness are unmatched. Their data stretch back 800,000 years and are conveniently located in some of the world’s most climatically sensitive regions. Two new features on Nature Reports Climate Change pay homage to the work of scientists who, over the last few decades, have been tireless in their efforts to extract clues about the Earth’s past climate from air bubbles, isotopes and dust particles trapped in ice.

First, a timeline of deep polar cores documents in fine detail the discoveries of scientific pioneers, from the first efforts to read ice records through to today’s hunt for ice a million years old or more. Complementing this chronology of scientific discovery is an interactive map layer for Google Earth. This virtual tour takes you to the sites where polar researchers have holed up year after year, drilling thousands of metres of Greenland or Antarctic ice before hitting bedrock. In the window below, spin the globe to the pole of your choice, zoom in and click on the map points to see the drilling stations. For a full-size view and more navigation controls - plus a built-in web browser window where you can check out the timeline - download the map layer here and run it in Google Earth, which you can download here.

As I highlighted earlier on the blog, this month's issue of NRCC also features an exclusive interview with world-renowned glaciologist Lonnie Thompson. On his quest to understand how ice is changing atop the world’s mountains, Thompson has spent more spent more time above 20,000 feet than any other human being; he's currently with a team at the Quelccaya glacier in Peru, racing to bring back ice that is rapidly being lost to climate change. The American Museum of Natural History has put together a great video on his work.

Such endeavours come with scientific challenges as well as personal ones. As understanding abrupt climate change becomes increasingly crucial, ambitious plans for studying these icy environs will be ever more important.

Anna Barnett

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Cloud shields breached by warming

clouds.jpgBlankets of low clouds shield and cool the Earth’s surface - but in a warming climate, will this safety blanket thicken, or will it deteriorate? That question has bugged climatologists for decades. A paper published in Science today (subscription) now offers convincing evidence that warming leads to fewer clouds, and thus exposure to more warming.

The positive feedback effect was observed in the northeast Pacific Ocean, where the relationship between short-term local meteorological conditions and cloud cover is fairly well understood. In contrast, scientists hadn’t previously said much about how this relationship plays out on a decadal scale - in part because any long-term data set would be viewed askance. Satellite cloud records go back only 25 years, and their accuracy can be wrecked by instrument drift and data gaps. Another type of cloud data, eyeball observations made from ships, is considered suspiciously subjective.

But in the new study, Amy Clement of the University of Miami and colleagues looked at both types of measurements from the northeast Pacific and found they were remarkably consistent. Clement says in a press release,

"The agreement we found between the surface-based observations and the satellite data was almost shocking. These are subtle changes that take place over decades. It is extremely encouraging that a satellite passing miles above the earth would document the same thing as sailors looking up at a cloudy sky from the deck of a ship."

The data showed that over the climatic ups and downs since the 1950s, periods of warming have dispersed the clouds. The authors then compared 18 global climate models to see if they could match the observations. Of these, just two showed the correct relationship between temperature, circulation and clouds - and only one of the pair, from the UK’s Hadley Centre, also responds to greenhouse gas forcing in a manner that matches the average response of the 18 models.

The Hadley model also happens to be one with highly sophisticated methods for simulating clouds, so it may point the way to incorporating the group’s discovery into future models.

Anna Barnett

Image: Jason Pratt, Creative Commons License

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IMO stalls decision on shipping emissions

cargoship.jpgThere’s an update over at Nature News on efforts to get a regulatory handle on carbon dioxide emissions from the shipping industry. I noted last month, when the International Maritime Organization was taking criticism for not moving faster on the issue, that an IMO official had said a July meeting might come up with ideas.

No such luck. The meeting wrapped up last week, and though progress was made on regulating pollutants that harm air quality, the issue of climate went unresolved. Although ships emit a variety of greenhouse gases, CO2 is the main culprit, outweighing other sources by almost ten-thousand-fold.

The accusation in June was that the IMO should have taken control of ships’ carbon footprints - a duty assigned to them by the Kyoto protocol - well before the Copenhagen conference. Coming to the IMO’s defense, an industry representative says they’ll find it easier to do it after December:

"The fact that the IMO cannot come to such agreement this year doesn't mean in any way that it's somehow hopeless," says Bryan Wood-Thomas, vice-president for environmental policy at the World Shipping Council, a trade group that represents about 90% of the cargo-container shipping industry. "Quite to the contrary, I think it will arrive at an agreement in the next year and a half," he says — once countries assess whether the results of the Copenhagen meeting change the context of the IMO's climate negotiations.

But if the IMO doesn't make this switch from crawl to sprint, the European Commission has said it will impose regulations on its own. The full article has more details.

Anna Barnett

Image: Flickr user "helmuts", Creative Commons license

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Unknown climate culprit for Palaeocene-Eocene warming

wetlands.jpgA reconstruction of the Earth’s climatic history during a key hot period 55 million years ago has highlighted a yawning gap in our understanding: this period’s rise in carbon dioxide accounts for just half of its warming. Some as-yet-unidentified climate feedbacks could be at work, the scientists behind the research conclude.

The era under scrutiny is the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Paleoclimatologists believe that the PETM could mimic our own future climate, because it’s thought to have kicked off with a pulse of carbon dioxide roughly equivalent to what humans are currently pumping out by burning fossil fuels. In a study published in Nature Geoscience (subscription), Richard Zeeb of the Universtiy of Hawaii and colleagues make a new, more precise estimate of the PETM’s carbon dioxide release based on ocean sediment records.

The increasing carbon levels caused ocean acidification that dissolved deep-sea carbonate compounds. By using measurements of this process along with a carbon-cycle model, the team inferred that during the period’s initial CO2 spike, no more than 3 billion tonnes of the gas was released over 5,000 years. Even before then, the planet looked like a greenhouse – it had a much warmer climate than today and about 1,000 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere. Over the main phase of the PETM, the group estimates the CO2 level rose to 1,700 parts per million.

But according to the IPCC’s best guess at climate sensitivity, that 70% rise should have pushed up global temperatures 3.5 degrees Celsius at most. Other proxy records indicate, though, that temperatures soared by 5 to 9 degrees. In other words, the consensus climate sensitivity - the value, devilishly hard to pin down, for how much warming will result from a given greenhouse gas increase - doesn’t seem to be holding.


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Interview: Lonnie Thompson

Q&A_AB.jpg
At the AGU Chapman Conference last month I met up with Lonnie Thompson, the alpine glaciologist who has spent more time above 20,000 feet than any other human. Despite being interrupted by last-minute demands from Peruvian customs officials - he was squeezing me in before taking off for a new expedition in the Andes - an unphased Thompson carefully laid out the past and present-day climate change that his work has uncovered. Here's an extract:


What information can you garner from glaciers?

Glaciers are like sentinels, and they're telling us that the system is changing. The first thing we look for in the ice is radioactivity from thermonuclear bomb tests in 1962–1963 and 1951–1952. Back in 2006, we drilled three cores in the southwestern Himalayas. At 6,050 metres, where those glaciers reach their highest elevation, we found that neither of these radioactive layers was preserved. The glaciers are being decapitated. Not only are they retreating up the mountain slopes, but they are thinning from the top down.

This same scenario is playing out on Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa. When we drilled there in 2000 we found the 1951 test preserved, but not the 1962 test. We've since continued to monitor those glaciers and we know that we've lost three metres of ice since 2000. If we had waited until this year to drill, we would not have found the 1951 bomb horizon, because that has now been lost.

What does that mean for climate science?

Once a glacier melts, the history it contained is gone forever, so there's an urgency in trying to collect the records before they are lost.

The loss of tropical glaciers is very telling because they're in such sensitive places. Half of the surface of the planet lies between 30° N and 30° S. That's where the heat that drives the climate system is received. It's also where 70 per cent of the 6.7 billion people on the planet live.

What's the effect on people as these glaciers disappear?

After this meeting, we're headed to Peru to drill new ice cores at two sites. That country contains 75 per cent of the world's glaciers. Eighty per cent of its population is in the desert on the west coast, and 76 per cent of the electricity comes from hydropower, from streams that are fed by glaciers in the Andes, all of which are retreating. Those changes are impacting the ability to produce hydropower, to irrigate crops in the desert and to provide municipal water supplies.


Read the full interview here.

Anna Barnett

Image: © Thomas Nash 2000. All rights reserved.

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Climate equity with an economic twist

For the better part of two decades, international climate policy has held industrialized countries responsible for the world’s carbon habit. But today developing-country emissions make up more than half the world’s total and are climbing faster than emissions in the wealthy North. A paper just out in PNAS offers a new argument that aims to bring these troubling emissions into the fold of a global climate deal - while preserving a sense of equity and the right of the planet's poorest to seek prosperity.

The work comes from Princeton’s Shoibal Chakravarty and a team of colleagues including Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, who previously brought us the handy concept of stabilization wedges. The principle: instead of asking the wealthiest nations to shoulder the burden of greenhouse gas cuts, ask the wealthiest individuals in both developed and developing countries to do so.

They aren’t suggesting that the UN hand out carbon ration cards or ground private jets. Instead, nations would be given emissions targets based on how many high-earning, high-emitting citizens they have. That means that although developed countries would still have to cut their emissions most quickly, developing countries with a growing middle class, such as China, would also be required to veer away from business as usual.

While Reuters headlined their story “New climate strategy: track the world's wealthiest”, Scientific American hits the real bottom line with “Who's to Blame? Making Poor Nations Share the Cost of Fighting Climate Change”. Socolow says, “I think the world understands that ... the size of the job required and the speed at which we have to proceed is incompatible with a further granting of a free pass to the developing world.”

But for those countries to relinquish their free pass, they would have to see the burden sharing as fair. That’s where the paper’s economic formula comes in.

Chakravarty1.bmpTake a country at any point in the future, say the authors, and you can estimate how its projected greenhouse gas emissions are distributed among its citizens by assuming that people with higher incomes emit more. You then put all these high and low emitters of the world into a single distribution and chop off the top of the curve (see right) - taking out a bigger or smaller section depending on how much gas you want to exclude from the atmosphere. This yields a recommended ceiling on individual emissions - in this example, about 10.8 tons CO2 per person per year - that applies equally to all countries. To then come up with a national target, follow the cartoon below.

Chakravarty2.bmp The authors also try a scenario with an added twist: an emissions floor as well as a ceiling. The idea here is to alleviate extreme poverty by letting people who are now using less than, say, a ton of CO2 per year come up to that low level. The group at first had doubts about this complication, says Socolow, “but we found that if we allow fossil fuels where they’re useful, the extra work that the rest of us have to do is very small.”

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Q&A: Observing the scars of the Arctic thaw

Jane Qiu has an interesting interview on Nature News with aquatic ecologist Breck Bowden of the University of Vermont, who is heading up new research looking at what happens when thawing ground in the Arctic begins to fall apart. Here's an excerpt:

Last week marked the start of a US$5 million project to study the effects of thawing permafrost on ecosystems in the Arctic. Based at the Toolik Field Station in northern Alaska and sponsored by the US National Science Foundation, the project will look at the impact of thermokarsts — the scars and pits left behind as melt water from permanently frozen ground leaks away, and soil and rock collapses in its wake.

The project was inspired by a serendipitous discovery in 2003, says Bowden:

My colleagues and I were flying over the high Arctic in search of research sites. We noted that the Toolik River was brown and muddy, which was odd as it hadn't rained recently. As we went further upstream, we came to a tiny stream that was washing tons of thermokarst sediments into the river. We were astounded how this tiny feature was influencing the river 40 kilometres downstream. The volume that had been displaced was enough to smother the bottom of the entire river. The sediments would release a lot of nutrients normally locked up in permafrost into freshwater cycles. That's got to have a significant impact on the ecosystem.

Read the full interview here.

Anna Barnett

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Twittering the World Conference of Science Journalists

Over 800 science communicators from around the globe are heading to London's Central Hall this week for the World Conference of Science Journalists. I'll be there picking up news and issues on the climate beat, and reporting back via Twitter. Follow me @annabarnett.

Anna Barnett

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AGU Chapman Conference: Megadrought in Dixieland

DesotoA never-before-seen megadrought made an appearance this morning at the last day of the AGU Chapman Conference. Paul Aharon of the University of Alabama says his latest observations are the first to suggest that drought affected the southeastern United States from about 13,000 to 11,800 years ago - during the so-called Younger Dryas cool period.

The evidence comes from the De Soto Caverns in Alabama. This cave has already offered up rich history of a non-palaeoclimatological kind: it holds a Native American burial ground and an abandoned moonshine distillery from the 1930s, when good-timing Alabamans used to shoot down the stalactites.

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AGU Chapman Conference: "They walked away"

Leilan Lower Town 1991 Kite.jpgAt the AGU Chapman conference today, Yale archaeologist Harvey Weiss took the prize for an abrupt climate change picture worth a thousand words. Excavating an Akkadian palace in Tell Leilan, Syria, in 2006 and 2008, Weiss's team found one room with a grain storage vessel smashed on the floor. Lying next to it were a standard litre measure used for rationing grain, and the tablet on which a bureaucrat had been recording the rationing. The artifacts date from about 2190 B.C., when cities and towns of the Akkadian empire in Mesapotamia were being abandoned en masse as the region suffered crushing drought.

"This site is the Pompeii of ancient Mesapotamia," says Weiss. "They walked away."

Weiss reviewed evidence that a rapid change in storm tracks in the North Atlantic - yet to be satisfactorily explained - dried out the Tigris and Euphrates valley 4,200 years ago. And that valley wasn't alone. Around the same time, deflection of the Indian Monsoon hit the Nile with a drought, and Egypt's Old Kingdom went down. The extreme events are also mirrored in North America from New Jersey to the Yukon. In a separate talk today, glaciologist Lonnie Thompson showed a new ice core data* from Huascarán in Peru, the highest tropical mountain, with a huge spike in dust deposition around this time. The dust probably blew off an aridifying West Africa, Thompson says.

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AGU Chapman: Could seafloor vents control atmospheric CO2?

050104114942.jpgAs the Earth has alternated between glacial and inter-glacial periods, the steep climatic ups and downs have gone hand in hand with changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. But where was the CO2 going to and coming from? Scientists have pointed to the ocean – currently a vast sponge for the greenhouse gas.

But a talk at the AGU Chapman Conference today by palaeoclimatologist Lowell Stott of the University of Southern California suggests a radically different reservoir: pools of liquid carbon dioxide trapped in seafloor hydrothermal vents.

These pools were spotted in the mid 2000s unleashing bubbles of liquid CO2 from the Okinawa trough in the Pacific Ocean (see the video here).

The CO2 pools form when one oceanic plate buckles under another and carbonates in the sediment break down under the intense heat. Perforations around underwater volcanic vents can allow CO2 droplets to escape and bubble up to the surface, but where the seawater is cold enough it effectively freezes the CO2 into a solid, or hydrate, form that acts as a lid. NOAA has a further explanation and diagram.

Stott points out that the carbon isotope signatures in some mid-latitude ocean sediment don’t tally with the conventional view of carbon entering the ocean system via photosynthesizing algae. The chemistry of the sea-vent carbon is a much better match, he argues. What's more, unpublished work by Stott and colleagues shows that past changes in deep sea temperatures around the vents would have been sufficient to destabilize hydrate caps and thus modulate the vents' release of CO2 in time with the rising and falling atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

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AGU Chapman: Meridional madness

abrupt_climate1_f.jpgToday's theme at the AGU Chapman Conference on Abrupt Climate Change is that big baddie of climatic tipping points, the shutdown (and rebooting) of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC. Could this massive system go down again? Tom Delworth of NOAA took on that question and offered up some interesting new modelling evidence.

When running strong, AMOC carries heat from the Southern Hemisphere northward. It's thought that some of the past coolings under scrutiny here stem from slowing or stopping of this conveyor belt. AMOC's future change in response to greenhouse gas increases was recently considered in an assessment report on abrupt change by the US Climate Change Science Program, which Delworth helped author.

While some state-of-the-art models suggest the circulation could slow this century - a 25-30% decrease is the report's best estimate - not a single one forecasts another shutdown in that time. That led the US panel to evaluate AMOC shutdown as "very unlikely", in the parlance of the IPCC - meaning a less than 10% probability. The lack of support from models meant they couldn't set the likelihood any higher, says Delworth - but on the other hand, the possibility of flawed simulations kept them from setting it lower, at "extremely unlikely". But Delworth's new work validates the model results.

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AGU Chapman: It's all about the bumps

A scant 21,000 years ago, Columbus, Ohio, was blanketed by the Laurentide ice sheet. Today it is home to the Byrd Polar Research Centre at Ohio State University, where this morning I sat in a glacially air-conditioned lecture hall watching an animation of that sheet flickering rapidly back and forth across Columbus and the rest of the northern parts of the continent. Such strobe-light climate change from the Earth's past is the focus of the AGU Chapman Conference on Abrupt Climate Change, being held here this week.

Though it's a fairly small gathering of 150 experts, it doesn't have the annual reunion feeling of some meetings; many of the people here seem never to have met before. We've got palaeoscientists of various persuasions: they reconstruct climatic history via models, ice, sediment, or - as geochemist Henry Pollack described his work on borehole temperature records to me over hors d'oerves - by "taking the Earth's temperature through its rectum". (Jokes about giant thermometers ensued.)

The common thread is figuring out what caused abrupt changes in the past - and what that implies about the prospects for their return. Says Richard Alley, a Penn State glaciologist and IPCC author, "The IPCC reports are the most optimistic thing we can put forward, because the projections are smooth. If you look at any palaeo record, there are bumps. This meeting is all about the bumps."

One innovative study on show today applied the models behind those smooth future projections to the bumpy past record. Bette Otto-Bliesner of NCAR says her group's research is the first to feed palaeo data into an IPCC-style coupled global climate model and run it continuously for several thousand years during the last deglaciation - rather than just taking snapshots in time, as was done previously. Having given the model instructions about what the greenhouse gas levels, sea ice extent, and meltwater flows should be, they found that it beautifully reproduced the bumpy North Atlantic temperature record.

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Report disperses migration myth

migrationClimate change and other environmental problems worldwide are driving migrants from their homelands - but not necessarily onto European and North American shores, as is commonly assumed. The first worldwide survey of climate refugees suggests that most of the displaced won’t make it further than nearby villages or neighbouring countries. The new findings went into a report released yesterday at UN climate negotiations in Bonn - I've covered them in a news feature here.

"There's been a bit of political rhetoric saying we're going to have waves of migrants at our doorsteps, rushing into Europe and North America," says Koko Warner of UN University, the report's lead author. Concerns about these huddled masses came up in a Commentary Warner co-authored in Nature Reports Climate Change last year.

In April, she and a team of collaborators from across Europe wrapped up two years of research, which involved interviewing migrants on five continents for the European Commission’s EACH-FOR programme. "What we found is that the people whose livelihoods are most sensitive to the environment also tend to be the ones who may not have the means to move very far," Warner says.

Instead, says the report, they could be stuck in destinations that are “as precarious as the places they left behind.”

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Visualizing the assisted migration argument

Formerly a taboo topic among conservationists, ‘assisted migration’ or ‘managed relocation’ – literally moving sensitive species to new habitats in order to save them - has recently started to come in for serious consideration. A paper out in PNAS this week offers a quick and innovative way to evaluate candidate species with new visual tools.

Some of the paper’s authors, including Stephen Schneider of Stanford, California and Jessica Hellman of Notre Dame, Indiana were part of a meeting last year on how to make such decisions, which we covered in a news feature at Nature Reports Climate Change.

The authors analyze the possibilities for three candidate species:
diamonds.bmp

Image courtesy of PNAS.

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Shipping emissions up in the air

Commercial ships steaming through international waters are pumping out increasing amounts of greenhouse gases that are out of the reach of the Kyoto Protocol and national regulatory schemes. A new report from the UK parliament’s Environmental Audit Committee warns it could take years to bring these emissions under control.

The UN’s International Maritime Organisation - tasked under Kyoto with figuring out how to regulate emissions from shipping - has failed to move fast enough, says the report. An IMO meeting on the issue held in October 2008 did not get as far as formulating a proposal that could be part of the negotiating text for a new global climate deal, now under discussion in Bonn.

Not that it’s a simple problem to solve. To deal with gases released on international routes, either various countries must divide responsibility, or else the gases have to go into a separate “international” basket that’s regulated on its own somehow. Both are thorny approaches. Nevertheless, says the committee:

There can be no excuse for the lack of progress within the International Maritime Organisation since the Kyoto protocol was signed. That the IMO has yet to reach agreement even over the type of emissions control regime to take forward, let alone decide any details, suggests it is not fit for purpose in this vital area.

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Development community must accept uncertainty

Uncertainty in regional climate projections isn’t going away, and that’s an inconvenient truth the development community will have to face, says Christoph Müller of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany.

Müller recently authored a report on expected climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa, at the behest of the German Development Institute (GDI), a Bonn-based think tank. A top recommendation of the final report, published 24 April and presented at the IHDP conference last month, is that adaptation strategies should not be motivated by specific impact projections, but instead should work on reducing vulnerability to environmental change in general.

An expert on climate impacts on agriculture and land-use, Müller found while scoping the report for GDI that there was a mistaken assumption by development experts that many of the current uncertainties in predicting climate change will soon clear up. “In the adaptation community, they often have the feeling that if we wait for another five years, we will know exactly what the weather will be,” he says.

So he turned the focus of the report around from cataloging impacts to dealing with uncertainty. “This report basically is trying to raise awareness that you will never get very accurate projections of what you will have to adapt to. Don’t wait for that. You have to adapt to uncertainty,” says Müller.

I talked to Müller to find out more about what adaptation planners in sub-Saharan Africa are up against and how they might tackle changes they can't forsee. What climate models agree on is that the continent will warm a bit more than the global average - roughly 2.0 to 4.5 degrees centigrade, according to three emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“But that’s where the certainty stops,” he says. Precipitation projections, for example, are important for many impacts studies - of freshwater availability, agricultural production, and development of water-hungry industries - but global climate models differ wildly on precipitation in African locales. “There’s maybe only a few locations in sub-Saharan Africa where you don’t have a scenario that says it’s going to get significantly wetter and another scenario that says it’s going to get significantly drier,” Müller points out.

A particular problem for sub-Saharan Africa is that observational data from meteorological stations is sparse, and many stations formerly sending out data have stopped ('historical' stations on map, below) - making it hard to produce local projections. This is usually achieved through a technique called ‘downscaling’, which involves using weather statistics and interpolating data to add details between the distant grid points of a global climate model. But without recent observations to constrain the calculations, it becomes near impossible to fill in this extra information with any degree of accuracy.
GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png


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Ones that got away

"There is significantly more risk [from inaction] than we previously estimated... There's no way the world can or should take these risks."
Ronald Prinn of MIT, co-author of a new modelling study showing that the climatic consequences of business as usual could be twice as bad as expected.

“They’re hoping that if you ask for 1 per cent, you may get a small fraction of a per cent.”
China's demand that industrialized countries cut emissions 40% by 2020 is not being taken seriously by anonymous policy wonks.

“Right now we’re probably seeing like 10 to 15 résumés a month. But back during Wall Street bonus time, we were seeing two to three times that.”
Evan Ard of the carbon brokerage Evolution Markets says Wall Street professionals have been scampering to join the few US carbon trading firms - especially after the year's bonus season, when traders can make tracks with their fat checks.

"I'm sure that they've gone into a less-than-functional building, but... surely in the whole of central London they could have sourced an up-to-date office block that they could be proud of?"

Greg Clark, shadow climate change secretary of the UK Tory party, on the new Department for Energy and Climate Change receiving the lowest possible score for energy efficiency.


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US climate poll: the difference a year makes

A survey out this week categorizes Americans according to their attitudes towards climate change - and the two most skeptical camps seem to be shrinking while worry becomes the mainstream view.

The authors, Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale and George Mason University's Edward Maibach and Andrew Light, report that “Global Warming’s Six Americas” now break down as follows:

6americas_fig1.jpg

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Ones that got away

Climate-change envoy Morley sacked over £16,000 mortgage
Sacked UK MP Elliot Morley is under pressure to resign as the chairman of the Energy and Climate Change Committee, following allegations that he claimed £16,000 of taxpayers' money for a mortgage that no longer existed.

“This man spent all his long ministerial career defending the environment, and lost his job by trying too hard to save it.”
Independent reporter Michael McCarthy comes to Morley’s defense.

“In a competition for resources it cannot be ruled out that military force could be used to resolve emerging problems that would destroy the balance of forces near the borders of Russia and her allies.”

A strategy document steps up Russia’s rhetoric on disputes over the thawing Arctic.

"It's a legislative Susan Boyle. Everyone underestimated it until it started to sing."
Ed Markey, chair of the US House subcommittee on climate change, compares the draft cap-and-trade bill to a contestant on Britain's Got Talent.

“China's controversial railway to the remote and restless mountainous region of Tibet could be threatened by global warming.”
Reuters reports that melting permafrost could undermine the tracks into Tibet.

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Calling all wannabe climate cops

police.jpgIf the UN conference in Copenhagen succeeds in hammering out tough limits on greenhouse gas emissions around the world, how can they ensure that nations will keep their climate vows in good times and bad, for better or for worse?

The Guardian’s Julian Borger flags up a new report, commissioned by the British government in preparation for the negotiations, that recommends sweeping changes to international institutions so that the policing can begin.

The authors, Alex Evans and David Steven of the Centre on International Cooperation at New York University, say this would include the creation of powerful new UN bodies. They suggest an “International Climate Control Committee” that would do for climate policy what the International Monetary Fund does for fiscal policy, pulling together and auditing data about how well countries are performing. A bit more glamorously, they also envisage a “coercive inspection regime” that - like the International Atomic Energy Agency hunting for nuclear weapons in the works - could show up unannounced to sniff out any illicit emissions.

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Ones that got away

"The pika is the fire alarm."
Environmental attorney Greg Loarie argues that this temperature-sensitive, adorable mammal should be protected as an endangered species because of the threat posed by warming.

"China used to think the developed world is not serious. But now they know the US is on the pitch and ready to engage with them. It has made a real difference to what China is saying."
Ed Miliband, back from a meeting with senior officials in Beijing.

"When you say ‘global warming,’ a certain group of Americans think that’s a code word for progressive liberals, gay marriage and other such issues.”
Robert M. Perkowitz, founder of the environmental marketing firm ecoAmerica, says the term “our deteriorating atmosphere” would resonate better.

“[Will] global warming … make the hairy, meat-eating wolf spiders of northeastern Greenland bigger[?]”
National Geographic gets the creepy-crawly angle on climate change.

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Hard times for climate plans in Australia and Canada

After months of saying that recession wouldn’t stop climate policy plans in Australia, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced yesterday that the country’s cap-and-trade program is in fact going to be delayed a year and will not roll out until July 2011.

As Roberta Kwok wrote in Nature last month, Rudd’s Labour party government had called for a 5% emissions cut from 2000 levels by 2020 - to be raised to 15% if an ambitious global climate deal is reached in Copenhagen - but the proposed legislation was under fire from both the right and left. The Financial Times notes that Greens in the Australian Senate had demanded a 40% cut with a global deal, while conservative opposition parties wanted the plan delayed to cushion the impact on businesses. Rudd met the Greens halfway, raising the conditional 15% target to 25%. Industry got extra soothing with a new tweak: fixed carbon prices for the first year (The Age has details).

Rudd, who had called any delay in cap-and-trade “reckless and irresponsible”, now says "I believe (this) is the most sensible, rational, balanced response to a fundamental change in economic circumstances."

Halfway around the world, British Columbia may also be about to take a U-turn on a climate policy milestone. Nicola Jones reports in Nature today that the province has been uneasily bearing the burden of North America’s first carbon tax. The BC Liberal Party started the tax in July, but their challengers in an upcoming election on 12 May are against it. Jones writes:

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CDM crunch continues

In April I reported that economic and political pressures were beginning to impact the UN carbon-credit programme that supports clean technology projects in the developing world, otherwise known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The full story is also in the latest issue of Nature Reports Climate Change.

Now, for the first time in two months, fresh data are being reported on the number of new projects entering the programme's approval process. While the dip in project submissions that I wrote about has turned out not to be as bad as it looked at the end of February, the figures from the UNEP Risoe research centre confirm that the CDM is likely to do less in the long run to cut greenhouse gases that was expected pre- credit crunch.

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IHDP: the Bonn Declaration that wasn't

Some of my fellow Open Meeting attendees were musing at dinner about how many Bonn Declarations exist. The top ten Google results point to six different texts named after the eminent city. The organizers of this conference originally proposed to add yet another Bonn Declaration to the list, one laying out the way forward for research on human dimensions of global change. But it turned out not to be easy to articulate a common vision that the motley group gathered here - who work on everything from emissions scenarios to development policy to the sociology of knowledge - could accept.

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IHDP: No time for pessimism, says small islands leader

Dessima_Williams-2900.jpgA group of ambassadors from the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) stopped by the IHDP conference yesterday and held a panel discussion on dealing with the leading edge of dangerous climate change. For AOSIS countries that stand to be swallowed by rising seas or devastated by droughts and storms, their continued existence is on the line in this year's climate negotiations. At the UN meeting here in Bonn in March, the group issued a statement saying, "The survival of the small island states should be the benchmark for the success of the Copenhagen agreement." I nabbed AOSIS chair Dessima Williams of Grenada for a quick interview on the island states' agenda.

What kind of agreement is needed for small island states to survive?

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IHDP: From London to Ibadan, 'it's not our problem'

Yesterday I caught a speedy summary of the climate vulnerability of Nigerian cities that included a glimpse into public perceptions there. Felix Olorunfemi of the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research surveyed 300 people door-to-door in the city of Ibadan and found that awareness of climate change was low, that it was seen as a complex and abstract problem, and that knowledge of such environmental problems wasn't correlated with action taken to address them.

What was striking about this 'not our problem' attitude was that it also cropped up in another case study during the same session. Research presented by Johanna Wolf from the Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia revealed it among people whose lives may in fact be directly at risk from global warming: elderly English pensioners.

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IHDP: Blasé economics

Popping up at the IHDP conference are signs of a certain gap in perception of climate change risks - one that economist Frank Ackerman pointed to in a letter to NRCC recently. "Climate change can't be both a fundamental threat to the conditions that support human life, according to scientists, and a mid-sized policy puzzle that can be solved by an adjustment in tax rates, according to economists," Ackerman wrote.

Much of the social and environmental research on offer here falls into the "fundamental threat" camp. But the blasé attitudes of some mainstream economists came up after last night's roundtable on ways forward for social science in the 21st century - and made a bold showing in a plenary talk today.

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IHDP: should 90% of climate change research be social science?

I'm in the hall that once housed the West German Parliament, a glass-covered fish tank of a building on the Rhine, which nowadays has become the Bonn World Conference Centre. For the next four days, the politicians' microphone-studded desks will be lined by experts in the field of 'human dimensions of global change' - given the impressively broad nickname 'human dimensions' among this crowd. About 1,200 participants are here to give 800 talks that make up the Open Meeting of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), a research arm of the UN.

One of today's opening keynotes was from Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research. After a daunting rundown of climate change threats, Schellnhuber - a physicist in a sea of human-dimensioners - urged social science to take the front seat on the problem. "Speaking as a natural scientist," he said, "I think 90% of research [on global change] will have to be done by the social scientists."

Physicists, he told me at the coffee break, can describe climate threats increasingly vividly and can tell decision-makers that technological solutions are out there. But it's up to social science, he says, to figure out how we bring about massive economic and social transformation on a tight deadline.

Case in point: feeding solar power from the Sahara where it's plentiful to Europe where it's highly in demand, one of Schellnhuber's favorite ideas. "All the technical problems have been solved," he says, "but it cannot be done." We don't have the legal framework, the transboundary agreements, the international will for this mode of energy delivery.

This is where policy experts, economists, and even anthropologists come in. But, he says, "I don't think the social science community has grasped the scope of the challenge." Operating on the basic principle that all groups are different, 95% of social science papers are local case studies, not global-scale work, he says. And indeed, there are an awful lot of case studies among this week's 800 talks. It remains to be seen whether the picture emerging from the conference will be piecemeal or planet-wide.

Anna Barnett

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Ones that got away

“We don't have the luxury of taking any approach off the table. We might get desperate enough to want to use it.”
US science advisor John Holdren comments on the possibility of using geoengineering to tackle climate change.

George Will’s colleagues get tired of his disinformation.
Washington Post reporters Juliet Eilperin and Mary Beth Sheridan contradict columnist George Will in a news story (and everyone notices).

“It’s a matter of survival for us, also. So we are among the most vulnerable countries, economically.”
Whereas many countries are concerned about the threat of climate change, Saudi Arabia concerns itself with the threat of climate change policy.

“It's like being lost in the desert, miles from anywhere and eating your own legs to sustain yourself during your search for help.”
Ed Gillespie comments on Tesco’s ‘flights for lights’ initiative on the Guardian’s Ethical living blog.

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Ones that got away

"If wind energy were the one practical and affordable answer to global warming then I would grit my teeth at the loss of the countryside and accept it. But I know that windfarms are no answer to global warming in northern Europe."
James Lovelock's retort to UK environment minister Ed Miliband’s claim that it should be "socially unacceptable to be against wind turbines in your area - like not wearing your seatbelt".

"We are in a dilemma. We want to support Obama - we know he has political difficulties. But we want him to know he has to do more."
A European delegate to the UN climate negotiations in Bonn this week.

"The creation of Arctic forces reflects a normal desire to protect our territory."
Polar scientist Artur Chilingarov on Russian plans for new military units patrolling the country's northenmost reaches - where thawing is sparking disputes over rights to resources.

"Any delay in fighting global warming would be detrimental to our economic stability - costing us billions of dollars and dampening the state's most important economic sectors."
Linda Adams, secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency, sums up a new report on projected climate change impacts in the state.

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Pancake ice takes over the Arctic

pancake-ice.jpgLast week I blogged on new research into shrinking Arctic summer sea ice. But as just reported at Nature News, climate change is not only "making Arctic sea ice disappear — it's also changing the type of ice that forms".

Nicola Jones writes that a patchwork of 'pancake ice' is becoming more common as the Arctic Ocean opens up and grows choppier. Because pancake ice is thinner and patchier than the usual think multi-year sea ice found in the Arctic, more sunlight is now reflected from the sea surface in the region, causing concern that it could accelerate local warming. It could have other knock-on effects on ocean circulation, ice growth and air temperature. More details in the story here.

Anna Barnett

Image: Pancake ice / Glenn Grant, National Science Foundation

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Reconciling sea ice models with reality

ngeo467-f1.jpgThe Arctic has been losing summer sea ice fast. At the end of the melt season in September 2008 the ice extent was barely above its record low of 2007, even after a much cooler summer. Most climate models did not anticipate the pace of this ice disappearance and still can’t replicate it. And as shown in the figure above, the futures projected by models are all over the map.

But researchers are reporting this week that there may be a way around the problems with modelling sea ice. With a new method for using observations to constrain climate projections, they find that the summertime ice is going, going, and set to be gone well before 2100.

The study was published in Nature Geoscience (subscription) by Julien Boé and his colleagues at UCLA. They calculate that the models showing the fastest future ice loss are also the most realistic about the recent past - something you could guess at by looking at the graph above, where the actual ice trend is shown as a black line. So rather than simply averaging across models, their technique teases out the most likely future sea ice evolution using the differences between the models that show the 1979-2007 ice extent most accurately and those that perform less well at reproducing past trends (if you’ve a yen for statistics it’s worth checking out the paper itself - the method is explained in a neat graphic). They project, based on a moderate emissions scenario, that September sea ice will most likely disappear between 2066 and 2085. That is sooner than even the most pessimistic models suggest on their own (see graph again).

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Ones that got away

Skeptics Dispute Climate Worries and Each Other
The New York Times reports that climate skeptics at the Heartland Institute's conference this week are “showing signs of internal rifts and weakening support".

EPA moves on Obama climate policy
Having set in motion a proposal for a national greenhouse gas emissions reporting system, the EPA plans to declare the gases a danger to human health next month.

"To see the effect of this recession, if it's reducing emissions, I'd say it would take one to two years to see that signal properly in the atmosphere. I don't think we've seen any signal yet.”

An economically-driven emissions slowdown might not show up until 2010, says Paul Fraser of CISRO.

"We always knew the DOE's logic was flawed. Now it turns out their math was wrong too."
Democratic Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois. Investigating what killed the government’s FutureGen carbon capture project, the US House Science committee uncovered a $500 million budget error at the Department of Energy.

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Ones that got away

"I don’t want to bring home a dead-on-arrival agreement. We tried that. It didn’t do the world a lot of good."
US climate envoy Todd Stern dismisses stringent 2020 emissions targets proposed by the EU, saying he will push for a Copenhagen agreement that the US Senate can ratify.

"Because tropical forest lizards aren't very heat tolerant and they live in environments that are already warm, any further warming could push them over the edge."
The narrow temperature range of tropical forests has left lizards who live there poorly prepared for climate change, says ecologist Raymond Huey.

Even hybrid vehicles emit carbon dioxide when blown up.
FOX's drama '24' is going green and carbon-offsetting its explosions.

"Thankfully it was sort of, I think, organic and non-toxic."
On his way to a low-carbon energy summit, UK business minister Peter Mandelson was doused with green custard by a woman protesting the Heathrow third runway plan.

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A sleeping giant?

methane.jpgOne noteworthy observation at December’s AGU conference – the latest and largest ever gathering of earth and space scientists – was the attention being given to a threat conceivably worse than carbon dioxide. In numerous talks, during poster sessions and over coffee, scientists were discussing methane – a greenhouse gas with a warming potential 25 times that of CO2.

Researchers have long speculated that climate change will unleash vast stores of the gas from where it lies frozen beneath the sea floor and locked up in the Arctic, triggering rapid warming.

Until recently, however, there has been little cause for concern. But that could all be changing, reports Amanda Leigh Mascarelli in a feature online today (no subscription required). Several observations made in 2007 to 2008 and reported at the AGU suggest that we could be in danger of waking a sleeping giant.

For one, a group of researchers working in the shallow waters of the Siberian Shelf noticed that their methane measurements were usually high compared with previous observations made in the same location. Added to that, they saw large rings of gas — sometimes as wide as 30 centimetres in diameter — trapped in ice, as well as plumes bubbling to the ocean surface over hundreds of square kilometres.

Then a separate group of scientists reported that global atmospheric concentrations of methane had spiked in the same year, following almost a decade of stability. While scientists can’t say whether either of these observations are anomalies or part of a long-term trend, they are certainly paying closer attention to the problem than ever before. “If there’s a ticking bomb in the room, you’d like to know the possibility of it going off,” says geochemist James White of the University of Colorado. “The fact that it’s there at all is unnerving.”

Mascarelli’s feature gives the low-down on the latest science – from the role of methane in past warming events to projections of what might occur in the future – and looks at what experts are doing to avert the problem. Some intriguing approaches abound, from parts of re-wilding Siberia with large animals that literally stomp the permafrost to keep it intact to using natural methane leaks as a power source for remote villages.

But if understanding the methane problem sounds like all work and no play, think again. Katey Walter of the University of Alaska, whose work is featured by Mascarelli, has produced some amazing videos while studying methane bubbling up from lake bottoms in the Arctic. Here her team drills through lake ice, then lights the escaping methane.

Anna Barnett and Olive Heffernan

Image: The average atmospheric concentration of methane shot up suddenly in 2007, having remained stable for a decade. Data shown are from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, courtesy of Matt Rigby.

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Ones that got away

“15 percent of all Washington lobbyists spent at least some of their time on global warming in 2008.”
The Center for Public Integrity, an investigative journalism organization based in Washington DC, reports that the number of lobbyists working to influence US federal climate policy has ballooned 300% in five years.

"We want to switch the current perception of Bangladesh from the iconic vulnerable country — where all these journalists fly to to see vulnerability — to make it the iconic adaptive country, so everyone flies there to see how they are coping."
Saleemul Huq's pitch for the new International Centre for Climate Change and Development that he plans to start in Bangladesh.

"The CDC considers climate change a serious public health concern."

This opinion goes on the record as US Congressional testimony for the first time, after being censored by the Bush administration in 2007. Howard Frumkin of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gave the testimony Wednesday.

Ag smarts versus cow farts
The Australian agriculture ministry will invest $27 million to fight methane emissions from livestock.

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Untangling aerosol effects

When it comes to describing how human activities are altering the Earth’s climate, aerosol emissions can tie your tongue in knots. Airborne pollution particles grouped under the "aerosol" heading come in a wide assortment - and some, as this NRCC article explains, tend to absorb sunlight and heat up the atmosphere, while others are more reflective and cooling. On top of that, it’s been thought to make a difference whether this potpourri of pollutants ends up drifting in clear skies or above clouds. Coming in now are the first experimental data that show just how important the effect of cloudiness is.

A study out this week in Nature Geoscience (subscription) uses a new type of satellite data to look at the smoky haze wafting above the southeast Atlantic, mostly from fires in southern Africa, during July-October of 2006 and 2007. The findings confirm what models had suggested: aerosols over cloudier patches of ocean have a net warming effect, but they switch to cooling over unclouded ocean.

Simply put, a veil of aerosols darkens white clouds, but it lightens the dark surface of the sea, and this difference in reflectivity swaps the outcome. The authors, led by Duli Chand of the University of Washington, estimate that 40% cloud cover is the turning point where the southeastern Atlantic’s aerosol cocktail starts adding to greenhouse warming rather than subtracting from it. Cloud cover in the study averaged 48%, and the spatial distribution of clouds and aerosols also overlapped significantly. The overall warming that this produces is about three times what it would be if clouds and aerosols were floating around independently instead of near each other, the group finds.


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Ones that got away

Climate change 'could reverse malaria patterns'
At the AAAS meeting, researchers say daily temperature fluctuations altered by climate change could kill off the malaria parasite in some areas and introduce it in others.

“I think that it is possible for us to create a set of clean energy mechanisms that allow us to use things not just like oil sands, but also coal.”
Obama touts carbon capture and storage. After a discussion with Candian PM Stephen Harper on importing oil from Canada's tar sands, the White House announced a forthcoming US-Canada pact on clean energy technology, including CCS.

"If we can build [a zero-emissions] station in Antarctica, we can do that elsewhere in our society.”
Alain Hubert, project director of a new Antarctic research station that runs on wind and solar power.

“According to the University of Illinois' Arctic Climate Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979.”
Washington Post columnist George Will dismisses global warming threats.

"It is disturbing that the Washington Post would publish such information without first checking the facts.”
The Arctic Climate Research Center responds that global sea ice levels are 1.34 million square kilometres less in February 2009 than in February 1979. (h/t TPMuckracker, where there’s more Will-debunking on offer)

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Interview: David Crisp

QA_AB.jpg
Due to launch 24 February, NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory will measure carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere with a precision high enough to detect the origin and fate of carbon emissions. In a Q&A on Nature Reports Climate Change today, principal investigator David Crisp explains why we need to put this greenhouse gas under satellite scrutiny:

From ground-based monitoring stations, we know that slightly less than half the carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere in the last 50 years has actually stayed there. But there aren't enough ground stations to tell us where the carbon sinks are. About a quarter is being absorbed by the oceans and by trees, but we don't know where the rest is going. Now, one might worry about whether these sinks will continue to be sinks. It'd be nice if we could study them and determine whether they're going to continue to do us this wonderful favour.

Sink studies on the ground are already turning up surprises, like the finding in a Nature paper this week that undisturbed tropical forests seem to be absorbing much more carbon than expected. Crisp says researchers can get a more complete picture from space, where “we can observe the entire Earth using the same instrument.”

On top of the scientific value, he says, "If we can identify sources and sinks of CO2, I'm sure we're going to discover some low-hanging fruit for policymakers."

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Greenhouse gases up for a rethink at the EPA

Last week I noted that the new bosses in Washington DC, in their swift stride towards distinctly post-Bush environmental policies, had yet to touch the outgoing administration’s 11th-hour battle against applying the Clear Air Act to greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.

They didn’t maintain the suspense very long.

Yesterday the new administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Lisa Jackson, said the EPA would put up for review a December memo on the issue from ex-EPA admin Stephen Johnson - and that the agency is set to announce new thinking on this type of regulation.

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New Arctic feedback: vicious peat circles

peatcircles.jpgResearchers have discovered new hot spots for emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide: barren patches of peat dotted across northern tundra. And warming in the Arctic - just as it threatens to multiply emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost and drying bogs - could accelerate the output of this lesser-known climate change culprit, according to a study in Nature Geoscience this week (subscription).

Nitrous oxide is the other other greenhouse gas. In the new paper, Pertii Martikainen of the University of Kuopio in Finland and colleagues call it third most important behind carbon dioxide and methane, noting that it contributes a reported 6% to global warming. It’s not been considered a player at all in the Arctic, where the few scientists who’ve looked for the gas have found negligible emissions. But that’s because they’ve been looking in the wrong places, say Martikainen’s team.

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Ones that got away

"It is an idea whose time has come and I would like to make it happen."
A National Climate Service to provide information on local climate change impacts gets thumbs up from Jane Lubchenco, nominated head of NOAA, at her Senate confirmation hearing.

"The art world is made of materials that bugs like."

Jose-Luis Ramirez of UN University on how climate-driven ecological changes threaten art treasures of the tropics.

"Overplaying natural variations in the weather as climate change is just as much a distortion of the science as underplaying them to claim that climate change has stopped or is not happening."
Scientists making exaggerated claims of catastrophic change distract from the genuine threat of global warming, says the UK Met Office's Vicky Pope.

Northern Ireland environment minister receives no-confidence vote
Sammy Wilson, who has denied human-caused climate change, was censured after he banned a TV ad for emissions cuts.

"Without a massive turnaround in policies, aside from the tragic loss of life and property, we will be asking firefighters to put themselves at an unacceptable risk."

The United Firefighters Union of Australia calls on PM Rudd for tougher climate policy to avoid more frequent bushfires.

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Ready to be regulated? Join the queue.

airplane-over-skyscrappers.JPGSigns of our interesting times: airlines and oil companies are apparently now queuing up to have their greenhouse gas emissions regulated.

A communiqué to the upcoming UN climate conference in Copenhagen has been signed by three European airlines and an Asian one - British Airways, Air France/KLM, Virgin Atlantic and Cathay Pacific - along with the European airport operator BAA. Calling themselves the Aviation Global Deal Group, they say they recognize “the need to find a global solution to our emissions that meets environmental and developmental needs whilst ensuring a level playing field in our markets.” Namely, they want carbon dioxide emissions from aviation to be regulated with a sectoral approach that applies to their overseas competitors.

As things stand, the EU’s emissions trading scheme is due include plane exhaust starting in 2012, which should make it more expensive to fly through Europe. For long-haul flights from Asia by carriers like Cathay Pacific, the EU will count total emissions rather than just gases released in European airspace, Reuters notes.

Across the pond, the New York Times reports that oil companies are in much the same mood, aiming to shape low-carbon policies they see as inevitable under Obama.

Anna Barnett

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Dirty money: US agencies rethink fossil fuel funding

The LA Times reports that two US federal agencies in the business of financing international fossil fuel projects like oil refineries and power plants have agreed to start scrutinizing the carbon output of these big emitters.

Export-Import Bank of the United States and the Overseas Private Investment Coporation - finance agencies that help drive US exports and aid development overseas - had been fighting a seven-year lawsuit by Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and four US cities. The plaintiffs argued that carbon dioxide emissions from projects funded by the two organizations are hurting these cities economically: “global warming, the suit argued, influences Santa Monica's water supply, the sea level near Oakland's airport and the snow on Rocky Mountain ski slopes” near Boulder, Colorado, according to the LAT story. They said these impacts should have been assessed ahead of time under the National Environmental Policy Act, the seminal US environmental law.

The agencies settled the suit Friday, a few weeks into Obama’s tenure - no coincidence, suggests Bill Hewitt over on his blog. “There’s a new sheriff in town,” agrees Salon’s Andrew Leonard, pointing out that last week the Obama EPA started its own lawsuit over a coal power plant upgrade in Kansas that allegedly failed to add in required pollution controls. The finance agencies’ settlement is intriguing because the battle they're conceding is reminiscent of others that Bush’s people fought tooth and nail until their very last days. Earlier in this suit over fossil fuel funding, says the LAT, the Bush administration argued that "alleged impacts of global climate change are too remote and speculative" to be part of project reviews. We heard essentially the same rationale in December when they pre-empted the possibility of using impacts on endangered species as the basis for limiting emissions. A parallel struggle over regulating power plant carbon footprints under the Clean Air Act (see this post and subsequent developments) has yet to be addressed by the Obama team.

The settlement has the agencies committing $250 million each to renewable energy projects, reports the LAT. Friends of the Earth announced that the EIB has promised to take emissions into account when evaluating new ventures and to develop a carbon policy, while OPIC will aim to reduce its projects’ greenhouse gas emissions 20% over the next ten years. That could add up: an earlier LA Times investigation (h/t DeSmogBlog), based on data from Friends of the Earth, counted up at least 12 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from just a subset of the projects the two funded in 1993-2006.

Anna Barnett

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Ones that got away

"I don't think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen. We're looking at a scenario where there's no more agriculture in California."
US Energy Secretary Steven Chu warns of the threat posed to vineyards and farms from warming.

"The phase-out law will be abolished. The ban in the nuclear technology law on new construction will also be abolished."
Citing concerns about climate change and energy dependence on Norway and other suppliers, the Swedish government plans to overturn a nearly 30-year-old moratorium on new nuclear power plants.

"What's important is the UK's impact on global warming and that includes other issues like aviation and consumption."
Green Alliance director Stephen Hale, criticizing the government for not counting imports, shipping and aviation in figures that show greenhouse gas emissions falling 1.7% in 2007.

"I have relearned a basic lesson re interviews – which will have to be fewer and more guarded."
Climate scientist James Hansen becomes wary of the media, following the upset over his refusal to back protesters opposing the expansion at Heathrow airport.

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Ocean acidification disorients fish, riles up scientists

clownfish.jpgI may need to start a file for ‘ocean impacts we hadn’t thought of’. First there was the projection that the seas will get noisier as a result of ocean acidification, which whale conservation groups were running with at a UN conference in December. Now researchers report in PNAS that ocean acidification may make fish larvae lose the sense of smell they use to find a home.

Most coastal marine species are swept out to sea during their larval stage and have to find their way to a habitat they can settle down in. Orange clownfish - yes, that’s the famously lost fish from Finding Nemo - must get back to reefs, often ending up in the same ones where they hatched. Philip Munday and Danielle Dixson of James Cook University in Australia have been studying olfactory cues the clownfish may follow.

But they and their colleagues report that clownfish larvae reared in aquariums at pHs of 7.8 and 7.6 don’t respond to smell tests the same way as control fish. These pHs are low compared to the 8.15 the fish live with today, but a business-as-usual rise in carbon dioxide emissions could take the ocean to 7.8 by 2100 and 7.6 in the following century.

Larvae reared at pH 7.8 favour the pungent smell of a swamp tree that clownfish normally avoid. They also fail to discriminate between the smells of their parents and other adults, suggesting that acid-addled Nemos might end up inbreeding more often. The pH-7.6-reared fish don’t swim toward any of the tested scents, suggesting they've stopped smelling altogether.

It’s not just clownfish that smell their way home. If acid damages fish's olfactory capabilities the researchers say, many other coastal marine species could be affected.

One question the paper doesn’t take up is whether an ocean pH of 7.6 would leave any reefs for clownfish to come back to. The danger to reefs, and other better-known impacts of acidification, have meanwhile been highlighted in a declaration by 155 ocean scientists from 26 countries - and they want action.

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Ones that got away

“If someone’s basement floods and they lose their job on the same day, it is certainly an unlucky day. But they would not wait until they found a new job before pumping the basement and fixing the leak.”
EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Ditmas channels Joe the Plumber in an open letter to Obama on climate policy (h/t Green Inc.), the day before the EU unveiled its pre-Copenhagen proposal.


"Just days after taking office, US President Barack Obama has appointed a climate envoy and cleared the way for new rules to force automakers to produce cleaner cars.”

UNEP on Obama’s first week, which put a California vehicle emissions law blocked by Bush back up for review.

“It is foolhardy to demonise all biofuels as unsustainable and environmentally damaging when some, which are already on the market, can play an important role, right now, in helping us to tackle climate change.”
Responding to the UK’s new target of using 3.25% biofuel for vehicles in 2009-2010 - a bit more than the 3% a recent government review recommended - Jeremy Woods at the Royal Society defends plant-derived power.

Global renewables agency launched as support falters
The US and UK decline to sign onto the International Renewable Energy Agency. London is thought to be concerned that the new body will undermine the International Energy Agency.

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The ocean's next 100,000 years

baltic.JPGCarbon dioxide emitted today - and the warming it causes - could stick around for centuries or millennia, reported Mason Inman over on Nature Reports Climate Change not long ago. New research (subscription) published online in Nature Geoscience this week looks at the impacts of CO2 emissions on the global ocean over a timescale even longer and less imaginable.

Because warm water holds less oxygen than cold water, oceans are expected to lose some of the dissolved gas as a consequence of climate change. This is already happening in certain tropical regions. Using a low-complexity model of the Earth system, Gary Shaffer of the University of Copenhagen and colleagues now find that the full effects of ocean warming and deoxygenation could lag thousands of years behind changes in the atmosphere - and that oxygen levels may not fully recover for the next 100,000 years.

Their projections are based on two IPCC emissions scenarios: A2, a high-emissions world, where carbon dioxide emissions climb through this century, and B1, a more moderate scenario, where emissions peak by around 2050. In both cases, Shaffer et al. assume emissions rapidly fall to zero after 2100. The researchers also try two levels of ‘climate sensitivity’ - the amount of global warming expected for a doubling of CO2 concentration.

Have a look at their figure to see just how long CO2 and its effects are found to linger under various combinations of these variables. The worst-case result is that mean ocean oxygen concentration falls to a low of about 68% of pre-industrial levels in the next few millennia, while low-oxygen ‘dead zones’ - which don't support fish or many other marine animals such as crabs and clams - spread nearly six-fold to cover 12.8% of the sea surface area. Their best case is a low that represents 89% of pre-industrial oxygen levels, with dead zones covering 5.2% of the sea surface.

"Such expansion would lead to increased frequency and severity of fish and shellfish mortality events, for example off the west coasts of the continents like off Oregon and Chile", says Shaffer. "The future of the ocean as a large food reserve would be more uncertain."

The number of these underwater deserts has reportedly been doubling each decade since the 1960s, fueled not just by warming but by agricultural runoff - which is expected to increase with flooding in some regions (see this 2008 review in Science; subscription). Other studies have suggested that rapid dead zone expansion this century will be driven by high levels of marine carbon. As Shaffer et al's models don't seem to include these effects, their estimates could run low.

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Prizewinning climate mini-documentaries focus on Bangladesh

Winners were announced Friday Thursday in a contest organized by the World Bank for short-short films - two to five minutes long - documenting the social dimensions of climate change. The 'Vulnerability Exposed' contest put out an open call last autumn for films to be posted on YouTube, with a special plea for documentation of developing-world impacts.

And the winner for vulnerability exposure is... Bangladesh! The judges' top pick and the runner-up focus on unpredictable floods in the country and its salinization by the rising sea - some of the same issues Mason Inman wrote about in NRCC recently.

The first-prize film, "Flood Children of Holdibari" by Mary Matheson, looks at children working out an adaptation plan for floods on their river-island home.

Second prize went to Rosa Rogers for "Climate Change in Bangladesh: Who Will Pay?", a film on how salinization and other effects are changing agricultural patterns in the southern delta.

Anna Barnett

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Q&A: Andrew Gouldson, director of the new Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy

gouldson.jpgThe UK will get an intriguing new climate research centre next week, with the launch of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and the University of Leeds. In a Q&A for Nature Reports Climate Change, I've interviewed Andrew Gouldson, who will co-direct the centre with Judith Rees under chairman Lord Nicholas Stern - and who envisions a strong focus on regional impacts of climate change.

CCCEP's experts will be closely in touch with policymakers and other local stakeholders, Gouldson says, in a way that "builds both their capacity and ours — ours to do good research, and theirs to use that research to take better decisions on climate change." One of the stakeholders, and a funder of one of the five research streams at the new centre, is the insurance company Munich Re. As I wrote last month, another new project that aims for the cutting edge of policy-relevant research is a hurricane model projection that Greg Holland is now wrapping up at NCAR - also partly insurance industry-funded. Could these academic-public-private three-ways be the way forward? Let us know in the comments.

I thought the most interesting part of the interview was what Gouldson had to say on the new UK Climate Change Act, which imposes a legally binding requirement to cut emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. Here's an extract:

AG: At the national level, I think Britain's been very proactive indeed. The government has been quite brave signing up to this medium- to long-term target which is really quite ambitious. But I don't think there's a public understanding, or possibly even a public acceptance, of what a low-carbon economy might look like — one which is 60, 70, 80 per cent decarbonized.

AB: Does that make it less likely that the policy will actually come through with results?

AG: In the next 10 to 15 years, not necessarily, because there are lots of mitigation options that are relatively affordable and technologically viable. I think the question is what happens in the phase after that. Is there a political appetite to do some really quite painful things which would involve some powerful people or parties losing out? I think there's a need now, in the next few years, to build some sort of broad consensus on the need to shift towards a low-carbon economy.

Read the full interview here.

Anna Barnett

Image: Andrew Gouldson, photographed by Stevie Kilgour at the University of Leeds.

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Ones that got away

“Obama’s goal of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 falls short of the response needed by world leaders to meet the challenge of reducing emissions to levels that will actually spare us the worst effects of climate change.”
IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri criticizes the new president’s policy at a Worldwatch event before Obama's inauguration.

U.S. carbon emissions during Bush era 20% greater than official estimates.
According to Brian Angliss over on Scholars and Rogues, US emissions are 20% above reported values owing to the failure of official estimates to account for greenhouse gas emissions generated by other nations as a result of the US outsourcing goods and services (h/t Climate Progress).

A dark cloud settles over a once sunny industry.
The solar-energy industry, which until recently had been booming, starts to feel the pinch of recession.

“No proposed or final regulation should be sent to the Office of Federal Register for publication unless and until it has been reviewed and approved by a department or agency head appointed or designated by the President."
On Barack Obama's first day as US president, a memo to federal agencies from White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel freezes all of the Bush administration's new and pending 'midnight regulations'.

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Biomass, biomass, burning black

indianfire.JPGA study published in Science today (subscription) uses carbon-14 measurements to figure out where the black carbon drifting in the haze above South Asia is coming from. That’s a prerequisite to cleaning it up - which, as we’ve reported here, could be a major boon to a very vulnerable region. The light-absorbing compound not only causes cancer (among other ill health effects), but reportedly warms some places as much as greenhouse gases do. Because its lifespan in the atmosphere is far shorter than carbon dioxide’s, these impacts could potentially be reduced quickly - if we knew where to clamp down.

Writing in Science, Örjan Gustaffson of Stockholm University and colleagues call black carbon the "dark horse" in the current climate debate, saying “substantial uncertainties exist about its atmospheric longevity, aerosol mixing state, measurement, and sources.” Black carbon is unusually concentrated in the ‘brown cloud’ over South Asia, they note. But estimates vary wildly on how much of this is from fossil fuel burning and how much from smoky fires of wood, dung and other biomass: the ratio ranges from about 1:10 to 10:1, depending on the technique and study area.

Radiocarbon measurements give a more reliable read on this question than other methods, according to Sönke Szidat of the University of Bern, who discusses the new paper in an accompanying Perspective. The principle is simple: fossil fuels are ancient enough that all their carbon-14 has decayed away, whereas freshly gathered biofuels have plenty of the isotope. And while other chemical clues about the brown cloud can change as it wafts around, carbon-14 stays stable.

The carbon-14 levels tell Gustaffson et al. that around half of the black carbon in the cloud, or more, is from biomass. They took samples at ground stations in the Maldives and atop a West Indian mountain, downwind of the rest of South Asia. The 50% figure, Gustaffson says, comes from a method of isolating black carbon that picks up airborne coal dust as well as combusted carbon in soot; in soot-only samples, about two-thirds was from biomass.

Says Szidat:

The study shows that the importance of biomass burning for local and global BC [black carbon] budgets has been underestimated. This was previously pointed out for urban, rural, and remote areas in Europe, but never were the consequences as severe as for the Asian haze.

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Fog clears, Europe warms [updated]

londonfog.jpgAh, January in London. It’s gray. It’s clammy and damp. As I write, it’s begun to bucket rain unreservedly and, in my view, rather un-Britishly. Where’s the fog?

Heading here from the US last winter, I vaguely expected Dickensian mists to greet me. It was only after expatriation that I learned the old 'pea-soupers' were laden with noxious coal smoke, dispelled by environmental laws after a particularly deadly fog in 1952. Now a new paper in Nature Geoscience (subscription) quantifies similar trends across Europe - and the warming that has resulted.

Averaging visibility data from 342 weather stations across Europe, Robert Vautard at the Atomic Energy Commission in France and colleagues found what they call a “massive decline” - of roughly 50% - in foggy, misty and hazy days when visibility fell below 8 kilometres, 5 kilometres or 2 kilometres. [Update: That decline was over the last 30 years.]

The trend is particularly pronounced in eastern Europe. Tellingly, three available long time series show that visibility in Potsdam, in the former East Germany, didn’t start improving until sulphur dioxide emissions dropped off with the decline of the communist economy - noticeably later than the turnaround in the Netherlands and Switzerland. When Vautard et al. compare their visibility records to an inventory of SO2 emissions, they find that places with greater reductions in the pollutant from 1990-2000 also had greater increases in visibility.

Fog forms around airborne particles, including pollutants, Dave Britton of the UK Met Office explains to the Guardian: "Go back to the 1950s and the big pea-soupers in London came from the amount of crap that people were putting out of their chimneys from coal fires." Since then measures like London's Clean Air Acts have played a role in clearing things up.

But they also may have inadvertently warmed the continent, the authors say. A standing problem in climate science is to account for the 0.5 C average temperature rise in Europe in the last three decades, which models don’t reproduce. Correlations between visibility and temperature suggest that lifting the fog could have contributed 10-20% of daytime temperature rises in Europe overall, and about half in central and eastern Europe.

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Ones that got away

We were referring to a Google search that may involve several attempts to find the object being sought and that may last for several minutes.
The Times clarifies their statement that a Google search produces 7 grams of carbon dioxide - after it turned out to be based on a study that made no mention of Google.

It's inconceivable you can hold those two things in your mind at the same time: [that] you're really going flat out for rapid decarbonisation and perfectly reconciled to expansion of aviation.
Jonathan Porritt comments on the UK government’s decision to give the go-ahead for a third runway at Heathrow. The verdict has caused some to speculate that the government was really just having a laugh when it comitted to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% of 1990 levels last autumn.

One tell-tale symptom of anti-science syndrome is that a website or a writer focuses their climate attacks on non-scientists. If that non-scientist is Al Gore, this symptom alone may be definitive.
Joe Romm gives his take on the climate skeptic blog ‘Watts Up With That?’, which the public voted as Best Science Blog of 2008, ahead of RealClimate, run by real climate scientists.

Finally, in response to popular demand, we comment on the likelihood of a near-term global temperature record.
NASA's annual summary of temperature trends says 2009 or 2010 will likely be the warmest recorded year, sticking by last year's assertion that an El Niño is on the way.


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US stakes claims in melting Arctic

398px-Northpole_polarstern_hg.jpgMonday was George W. Bush's last press conference as president, and the administration seized the day to release new security directives on US interests in the Arctic - where disappearing sea ice has the five bordering countries on edge about who will get their hands on assets set to be freed up.

Reuters reports that the new US policy contradicts Russian claims to seabed rich in oil and gas. Canadian press like the National Post are focused on the Northwest Passage: the US has asserted its right to sail the newly navigable waterway, which the White House calls an international strait but Canada says it owns.

The directives even look toward opportunities for terrorism in a warmer Arctic, says a press release reprinted at Dot Earth (alongside links and details on the new docs). The release is clear about the new reality up north:

Fourteen years have passed since the last review of federal Arctic policy. Our understanding of climate change in the Arctic has caused all Arctic nations to reassess their policies in the Arctic. In addition, with the increase in summer melting of Arctic sea ice, human activity is increasing. This raises new questions about the potential expansion of fisheries, pollution, energy exploration and development, and the nature of sustainable economic development in the region.

"When it comes to energy, the notion isn't a race to the Arctic to put our flags down," a National Security Council spokesman told Reuters - in a seeming jibe at Russia's flag-planting expedition at the underwater North Pole. "Our approach is going to be dealing with our fellow Arctic nations in finding ways to access and develop, when it comes to energy specifically, that takes into account conservation and the environment."

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IEA responds to attacks

Whose opening lines are these: "The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable ... but that can - and must - be altered.”

Sound like another renewables naysayer upholding the fossil-fuel status quo? That's what the International Energy Agency is being accused of in a report picked up by the Guardian on Friday and endorsed by Grist today.

The IEA is slammed by an international group of legislators and scientists called Energy Watch, best known previously for their oil-has-peaked stance. The group’s new report, on wind-power prospects, is one of a handful it has to its name. In the wind report, the Guardian’s David Adam writes,

The experts … say the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes misleading data on renewables, and that it has consistently underestimated the amount of electricity generated by wind power in its advice to governments. They say the IEA shows "ignorance and contempt" towards wind energy, while promoting oil, coal and nuclear as "irreplaceable" technologies.

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Geoengineering: Plan B or not plan B?

With serious talk about geoengineering options now on a serious roll (“Not so sotto voce any more” is how RealClimate put it back in August) 80 climate researchers have been polled by the Independent about whether we should prepare techno-fixes such as ocean fertilization or aerosol clouds as an emergency lever on the Earth system.

The paper reports today that 54% - i.e. 43 of them - think we should draw up such plans. Here's the actual poll question - not reprinted by the Independent, but reproduced by a recipient (via the geoengineering Google Group):

Do you agree that we now need a “Plan B” whereby a geoengineering strategy – research, development and possible implementation – is drawn up in parallel to a treaty to reduce carbon emissions (subject to international agreements and a scientific assessment of risk)?

35% disagreed and 11% were undecided.

This survey of scientists is hardly a scientific survey, as climatologist Myles Allen of Oxford points out in a Tyndall Centre newslist post. But it does give some kind of temperature reading - especially in the scientists’ direct comments, which the Independent has published for about half the respondents (listed roughly in order of famousness).

There’s a lot more nuance in those comments than ‘Plan B or not plan B?’ But the overall temperature? Lukewarm.

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Roundup of roundups, 2008

While we wait for Stoat’s response to our 2008 climate science year-in-review, here are some of the annual roundups popping up elsewhere.

First, the science: the most thorough state-of-the-Earth report is on Earthbeat Radio, where Andrew Revkin and Joe Romm sum up trends in temperatures (more on RealClimate), receding sea ice (one of Nature's top science stories this year), and other climate impacts.

“Change” was the word of the year, says Chris Tobias at Celsias, and we’re not just talking climate. It was the inescapable mantra behind Barack Obama’s victory in the US election - 2008’s number-one ‘green story’, according to both Time and Grist. (Link-clickers will note that Time’s list is almost absolutely America-centric. For the UK equivalent, check the Telegraph, which posits that “The whole year has been building up to the Climate Change Bill”.)

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Forecasting the future of hurricanes

The world's most advanced simulation of extreme weather on a warming Earth completed its first run last Friday - though the data won't be fully digested into human-readable format until spring. Yesterday I talked to meteorologist Greg Holland, co-leader of the study, at the Willis insurance company's London office - whose cycle racks, I can report, are tucked away discreetly across the street from its intimidatingly curved and purple-lit lobby.

Willis's research arm funded the work, along with the offshore oil industry, the US Department of Energy and the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), where Holland is based. They all want to know how climate change will alter hurricane patterns in the Atlantic. At the request of several US state governors, the project is also looking at rainfall over the Rockies and winds in the Great Plains. Says Holland:

I'm not going to forecast a squall line through New York in 2050. But what we want to do is be able to say: "What are the statistics of squall lines going through New York in 2050?" or "What are the statistics of hurricanes coming into Miami in 2050?"

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The latest on the Southern Ocean sink

At a conference this week, marine scientist Andrew Lenton of the Université Pierre et Marie Curie presented a new model that sketches out a beautiful causal chain: from the ozone hole over Antarctica, to rising southern winds, to stronger Southern Ocean currents, to more deep-sea stored carbon arriving at the sea surface.

The simulation, which Lenton reported at a meeting of the CARBOOCEAN research consortium in Dourdan, France, is the first coupled carbon-climate model to account for what biogeochemists have recently seen in the Antarctic waters. As I noted last month, observations (Science, subscription required) suggest the Southern Ocean's considerable carbon dioxide sink isn't soaking up as much of the gas as climate modellers expected, perhaps because there's already too much dissolved in surface waters. That means more climate-warming carbon accumulates in the atmosphere.

By bringing in stratospheric ozone damage, which earlier studies had excluded, the model of Lenton and his colleagues manages to reproduce the recent disappointing sink - a step toward resetting future projections.

I reported this story for Nature News this week, and it posed two problems. One, I didn't get to go to France - I heard it all here at my desk. Two, an issue flagged up in my earlier post also dogs Lenton's research. One of the links in the chain - between speedy winds and more powerful Southern Ocean circulation - isn't supported by oceanographic data (Nature Geoscience, subscription required).

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Frozen tundra bursting with gas

Tundra 2 ISTOCKPHOTO _ RYERSON CLARK.jpgThe Arctic tundra is letting loose a large and unexpected burst of methane in the autumn, finds a new study out in Nature today. Unlike the oceanic methane bubbles that made headlines a few months ago, this isn’t suggested to be an effect of climate change – it’s the formerly overlooked (or rather, never-looked-for) tail of a natural seasonal cycle. But it’s important for understanding natural methane-emitting processes that may be affected by future warming. I’ve got the full story over on Nature News.

The newly discovered surge of greenhouse gas is brought to you by International Polar Year. Thanks to that research push, a team led by biogeochemist Torben Christensen of Lund University, Sweden, got a two-month extension on the usual field season at a monitoring station in northeast Greenland. Scientists have been measuring methane emissions from far-northern tundra during the growing season for decades, but it had been assumed that once methane levels taper off in late summer, they stay at next to nil over the freezing fall and winter.

Far from it. Emissions actually spike as the ground starts to frost over, the researchers found, and cumulative emissions during the freeze-in are about equal to those in summer. If all wet meadow tundras release a similar methane burst, they calculate, about 4 million tonnes may be emitted each winter. That’s not enough to affect estimates of the total annual methane emissions from tundra (30 to 100 million tonnes), but it’s just right to account for an observed autumn surge in atmospheric methane over the frozen north that had previously gone unexplained.

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Attn Obama: Earth science agency merger

There’s a line around the block to give advice to Barack Obama, the latest offering being a 400-page environmental policy paper backed by 29 NGOs (hat tip to Climate Progress). Amid the many recommendations, a proposed bureaucratic shake-up of US Earth science has also resurfaced.

The idea is to combine research programs at NOAA and the USGS into a new, streamlined Earth Systems Science Agency, or ESSA. Published as a Policy Forum in Science this past July (subscription required; also see NRCC story and blog), it is now very much dwarfed by buzz about a possible National Energy Council complete with a czar to be crowned. But ESSA hasn’t fallen entirely off the radar of influential democrats - more on this below. And there’s just been an interesting dialogue over at Prometheus on whether the NOAA-USGS merger makes sense.

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Antarctic currents aren't a-changing

The Southern Ocean’s carbon-sponging capacity has been getting a scientific rethink lately, and a paper in Nature Geoscience this week (subscription required) offers new info on what assistance we can expect from these frigid waters. Unfortunately, the wire report on the paper garbles its bottom line.

According to one long-term prediction, the Earth’s oceans - our greatest natural ally in any war on climate change - will soak up 70 to 80% of the entire industrial era's anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the next several centuries . The Southern Ocean accounts for some 15% of that storage. Last year, however, a widely reported study (Science, subscription required) led by the University of East Anglia’s Corinne Le Quéré concluded that the Southern Ocean’s ability to absorb the gas was weakening.

The new paper, by Claus Boening of IFM-GEOMAR and colleagues, has garnered a Reuters article that unsurprisingly doesn't go into detail about past studies. But the summary from Reuters wrongly implies an about-face on worries over a weakening ocean sink. The story leads with:

The Southern Ocean has proved more resilient to global warming than previously thought and remains a major store of mankind's planet-warming carbon dioxide, a study has found.

and it later continues:

The analysis shows the Southern Ocean has maintained its ability to soak up excess carbon despite changes to currents and wind speeds.

Actually, though, the Boening et al. paper doesn’t evaluate carbon-soaking ability - current and wind speeds are what it's all about. In contrast, storage capacity is the primary concern of Le Quéré et al. So the direct contradiction between today's story, Southern Ocean changing but still major CO2 sink, and the 2007 Reuters report on Le Quéré et al., Southern Ocean saturated with carbon dioxide, looks like an oversimplification.

I called Boening to clarify. “We don’t have anything to directly challenge that conclusion [of Le Quéré et al.],” he says. “We are just challenging the scenario behind that conclusion, namely changing circulation patterns.”

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Bonanza of carbon cases at the EPA

Obama's Environmental Protection Agency may not have a director yet, but it already has its hands full. In the final year of the Bush administration, the EPA has simply procrastinated on greenhouse gas control: the Supreme Court in 2007 ordered the agency to assess the dangerous impacts of emissions under the Clean Air Act, or else justify its lack of action, but the result was a hopelessly conflicted report with a comment period that outlasts the presidential turnover. Now adding pressure to sort this out, pronto, are an EPA decision on coal plants last week and the threat of a new lawsuit over ocean acidification.

On Thursday the EPA's Environmental Appeals Board rejected the permit for Utah’s new Bonanza Coal Power Plant - a ruling that could halt as many as 100 other coal plants on the EPA docket until the agency can decide how to regulate their carbon dioxide output. For details, see the thorough coverage on Wired Science and Climate Progress. AP summarizes:

The panel said the EPA's Denver office failed to adequately support its decision to issue a permit for the Bonanza plant without requiring controls on carbon dioxide, the leading pollutant linked to global warming.

The matter was sent back to that office, which must better explain why it failed to order limits on carbon dioxide. This is "an issue of national scope that has implications far beyond this individual permitting process," the panel said.

The Sierra Club conservation group filed the Bonanza appeal and argued it on the basis of the Supreme Court ruling. Their victory wasn't absolute, explains Alexis Madrigal on Wired Science:

The Board did not actually side with the Sierra Club's interpretation of the Clean Air Act, but in deciding to send the decision back to the EPA with the instruction to come up with a nationwide plan for regulating greenhouse gases, the Sierra Club effectively stopped new coal plants in their tracks.

"It's going to stop everything while EPA mulls over what to do next," Sierra Club lawyer David Bookbinder told the AP. "And that will be decided by the next administration."

Meanwhile, the Center for Biological Diversity has appeared to the EPA as the Ghost of Lawsuits Yet to Come. Skipping the Clean Air Act (and other federal laws cited in past cases against carbon, as noted by Dot Earth), the CBD say they will invoke the Clean Water Act in defense of acidifying oceans. The group petitioned last year for an update in the EPA's pH standards, which haven't been revised since 1976 - a problem flagged in a July 2007 Science commentary (subscription required).

Their followup is a notice of intent to sue. A win in court could open yet another door to EPA regulation of carbon dioxide emissions - something the CBD is going after explicitly in separate, state-level petitions.

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Pre-Poznan: China makes the first move

Wangfujing_street,_Beijing.JPGThough experts have pegged China as the world’s biggest carbon dioxide emitter for well over a year, it was only two weeks ago that the government first openly admitted China's emissions have caught up with the US (just barely, they insist).

This acknowledgment came the day after a senior Chinese climate policy official said rich nations should earmark a wopping 1% of their GDP to help the developing world tackle climate change. Swift to follow was an international climate conference in Beijing, run jointly by China's government and the UN, which ambitiously proposed a new international agency to push technology transfer. Jane Qiu reports the meeting’s outcome in Nature this week (subscription required).

In short, it’s not just the rather ghastly Christmas tree in my hairdresser’s window that’s signaling December is around the corner. Next month ushers in the UN climate conference in Poznan, Poland, a major stop on the road between Bali and the Son of Kyoto treaty to be hammered out next year in Copenhagen. The formerly reticent China seems to be after a louder voice at the table.

Reuters reports:

"There's growing external pressure on China and also its own problems with energy and the environment, and these factors are coming together to make it more active and focused on climate change," said Goerild Heggelund, an expert on Chinese climate change policy at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Norway.

President-elect Barack Obama's entry into the White House early next year, vowing greater action on climate change, will also lift expectations of China, said Guan Qingyou, a climate policy researcher at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

"With U.S. policy changes, there will also be more pressure on China to show initiative," he said. "Eyes will be on us."

The 1% of GDP demanded last month, Qiu says, would cash out at US$284 billion - more than twice what the eight largest economies pledged to the climate-challenged developing world at July’s G8 summit. Even if the North agreed to such a sum - or the 0.5% or 0.7% the Chinese have previously suggested - countries heading toward a global recession seem unlikely to improve on their poor records of delivering foreign aid.

Perhaps more UN-friendly is the new plan for stepping up the transfer of technologies that would allow the South to produce clean energy and adapt to unavoidable climate change. Writes Qiu:

Under the framework proposed in brainstorming sessions at the Beijing conference, the new inter-government agency would be an independent body able to make and implement decisions and monitor compliance. It would oversee and verify mitigation targets of developing countries, identify barriers to technology transfer, and propose countermeasures. Developed countries would commit to providing it with a steady stream of income for its primary operating budget, possibly supplemented with money from the private sector and other sources.

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Hurricanes and sea surface temperature: all relative?

Ike.jpgWith a month to go until its official finish, the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season has seen more damage, as measured in dollars, than any other year except the monster 2005 season. Scientists have yet to agree whether human-induced climate change has caused spiking Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1990s - and while the season has raged on, researchers have continued to go back and forth on whether worse is in store as the ocean keeps warming. Science this week has the latest salvo in the longtime debate: a Perspective (subscription) by Gabriel Vecchi of NOAA, Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Brian Soden of the University of Miami.

Warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic, thought to fuel hurricanes, are correlated with the recent surge in storm activity. The trend is roughly linear, note Vecchi et al., and extending it along with predicted temperature rises implies that by 2100, a hurricane season like 2005’s might be considered mild.

But that’s only true, they caution, when you look at absolute temperatures. Relative warming - the Atlantic heating up even more than other tropical seas - is equally well-correlated. Citing their recent papers in Nature and Geochemistry, Geophysics and Geosystems, and Knutson et al. in Nature Geoscience, the authors make an argument that relative warming is more likely to be the true cause of increasing activity. And relative warming of the Atlantic sea surface, in contrast to absolute warming, doesn’t keep trending upwards in 21st-century climate predictions.

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Human prints on the poles

Gillett.JPGHumans are at fault for warming at both the Earth’s poles: so say unique findings published in Nature Geoscience today.

With stories of dwindling sea ice and collapsing ice shelves already saturating the media, this at first may hardly sound like news. But in fact, researchers had never formally pinned the Arctic’s rapid warming on humans, because limited data were swamped by great natural variability. Down south, where warming on the Antarctic Peninsula contrasts with cooling in some other regions of the continent, the IPCC’s 2007 assessment report concluded: “Anthropogenic influence has been detected in every continent except Antarctica (which has insufficient observational coverage to make an assessment)”.

In the new study, Nathan Gillett of the University of East Anglia and colleagues found a way to squeeze clear results from those sparse data. Their method was based on state-of-the-art models of the polar climates that either incorporated anthropogenic as well as natural influences on variability, or included natural factors only. (Human influences include greenhouse gases that cause warming and a cooling effect from depletion of stratospheric ozone; natural ones are solar variation and volcanic eruptions.) This type of study, pioneered by Peter Stott and co-authors in 2000, has greatly boosted the IPCC’s confidence that humans are causing climate change globally. The new Gillett et al. study - co-authored by Stott - gave the technique an important tweak, say Andrew Monaghan and David Bromwich in an accompanying News and Views article, by focusing on model results for only those places with observational temperature records:

By this restriction, the group is able to perform an ‘apples with apples’ comparison of model simulations and polar near-surface temperature records during the twentieth century. Their analysis implies that the models can simulate trends better than previous studies had suggested.

In the records since 1900 put together by Gillett et al., the average temperature across monitoring stations has risen at both poles. And the models match these trends only when they factor in all influences, including human hands (producing the line labelled ALL in the above figure).

“We detected the human fingerprint in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions,” says Gillett. The familiar litany of impacts - balding Arctic summer sea ice, ecological and human displacements, sea level rise - are likely down to us too, the authors say. Stott adds that the results make the poles’ future all the bleaker, since “the human component isn’t going to let up anytime soon.”

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Royal Society launches geoengineering review

Last month I wrote that geoengineering proposals had practically made the scientific mainstream, gracing a special issue of one of the Royal Society’s journals. With global emissions steadily rising and policy responses slow to take hold, scientists have begun to call more loudly for research into the last-ditch technological fixes that might - or might not - be able to reset a rapidly changing climate.

The journal’s special issue turns out to have been just a preliminary move for the UK scientific academy. Today the Society announced it is launching a project to review and compare, on paper, the merits of different geoengineering schemes.

Mentioned in the press release are some of the classics: reflecting sunlight with space-based mirrors, pumping cooling aerosols into the atmosphere, and fertilizing the ocean with iron to create carbon-sucking plankton blooms. (Trials of that last one by startup company Climos, who hope to make carbon-credit money off it, are up for consideration by international regulators this week, Reuters reports.) A working group will assess such ideas’ feasibility - “separate the science from the science fiction”, in the words of chair John Shepherd - as well as the huge side effects we could incur by trying to manually turn the thermostat on an incompletely understood planet. A report will be out in mid-2009.

Philip Boyd of New Zealand’s University of Otago demanded an assessment much like this only a few days ago in a Nature Geoscience Commentary (subscription), as The Great Beyond reported. It’s been 15 years, says Boyd, since geoengineering ideas were comprehensively scrutinized and ranked according to their promise (by Keith and Dowlatabadi in Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 1992, if you're wondering). Here is Boyd's example of what he's looking for (more color denotes a higher ranking - this is one for the imaginative graphics file).

geo eng.bmp

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The missing climate science message

In Science this week, a commentary (subscription required) from John Sterman, who studies systems thinking at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, argues that the public may shy off of action against climate change because their basic mental model of the problem is wrong. People don't intuitively understand how changing rates of carbon dioxide emissions affect the overall concentration of the gas in the atmosphere, Sterman says. In fact, they often make mistakes when thinking about how 'inputs' and 'outputs' sum up to form a total 'stock' - "even in simple, familiar contexts such as bank accounts and bathtubs".

Time’s Bryan Walsh covers the piece today, tutting over the “tremendous gap” between knowledgeable scientists who favour aggressive steps and confused laypeople who don’t. Walsh wants experts to “better explain in clear English the dynamics of the climate system, and how to affect it”. Matt Nisbet at Framing Science goes a little further: “What’s needed is not simply getting more scientific information out there, but rather new methods for communicating about the problem that are adapted to the background of targeted publics, journalists, and decision-makers.”

But I’m not convinced that the apparent crisis of understanding Sterman points to is really a crucial barrier. Here's the background: research Sterman published last year with co-author Linda Booth Sweeney of Harvard found that even MIT grad students make rudimentary mistakes when asked how to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Nisbet sums up:

In the experiment, MIT students with advanced training in either the sciences or economics were asked to read descriptions from the IPCC summary for policymakers that depicted the long term accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. When asked then to sketch what they estimated to be the emissions path needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2, nearly 2/3 of the elite MIT students erroneously reasoned that greenhouse gas emissions can stabilize even though emissions would continue to exceed the rate of removal from the atmosphere.

The students typically thought that stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions at current levels would likewise stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations at current levels. The right answer is that emissions need to be cut drastically - by over 50%, given the numbers in Sterman's example. This is an instance of the more general problem where “people have difficulty relating the flows into and out of a stock to the level of the stock”, says Sterman.

Sterman takes something of a logical leap, though, in connecting this mistake with poll results showing that majorities in the US, Russia, China and India - all important emitters - favor a ‘wait and see’ or ‘go slow’ approach to lowering emissions. (More on recent climate poll results in this post, by the way.) He writes:


For most people, uncertainty about the risks of climate change means costly actions to reduce emissions should be deferred.

But that’s an answer to the question of when to take major measures against the risks foreseen by climate experts. It’s not about what those measures would look like, in terms of emissions trajectories.

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Pre-empting climate change extinctions

IUCN.JPGOne of the world's largest conservation organizations is getting into the business of predicting which species could suffer most from future climate change - even before the damage begins to show.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is known for its annual Red List, which tracks species populations worldwide over time and nominates those most in danger of extinction. But in a chapter of this year's Red List report, it released early work on a new roster: species susceptible to a climate-induced snuffout in the years ahead.

The new project may facilitate what is being dubbed 'pre-emptive conservation'. Emma Marris reports today on Nature Reports Climate Change:

The data [on climate susceptibility] may someday be integrated into the Red List itself, so that researchers who map hotspots of threatened species or otherwise model biodiversity can include future climate-change-related threats, even if species appear to be in the pink of health. Parks can be planned, corridors built, and more aggressive measures, such as so-called 'assisted migration', can be considered before population numbers begin to decline — a pre-emptive strike against extinction.

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In search of the best climate graphics

Flipping through Dire Predictions, the terrific new illustrated summary of the 2007 IPCC report (reviewed here), has me wondering about the best climate graphics out there. Page after page of beautiful, clear charts and illustrations add up to a lot of power, making the whole book a visual standout, but it would be hard to pick out any individual pieces that really pop with imaginative information design. Meanwhile, even after another banner year for climate science in the media, none of the most recent finalists in Science's annual image contest concern themselves with the warming globe.

So last week when I stopped by the conference 'Representing Climate Change: Ecology, Media and the Arts' at Cambridge University's Centre for Research in the Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities, I grilled their speaker on graphic design, Louise Moana Kolff, on other examples of great climate science visuals. (Click each image below to see the full-size original.)

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Watching peat dry

Peat_Lewis.jpgIt's a buried time bomb of greenhouse emissions - and it's even less photogenic than melting permafrost. A team of researchers led by Takeshi Ise of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology has been watching peat dry.

Peat - "an accumulation of partially decayed vegetation matter", in Wikipedia's appetizing phrase - forms in bogs and swamps where the acidic, waterlogged, oxygen-poor soil smothers the decomposition process, just as permafrost freezes it out. That makes it a big sink for carbon that would otherwise have joined the atmosphere as the plants composted. But peat's not just a sink, it's a sump - and a snowballing one. The large amount of water peat can hold lowers the oxygen available, which makes more peat accumulate, which sucks up more groundwater and blocks it from draining.

It's this feedback process, as it occurs in the northern bogs of Manitoba, Canada, that Ise et al. succeeded in accurately modeling for the first time in a paper published this week in Nature Geoscience (subscription required). Their bad news is that warming air temperatures reverse the loop: the peat dries and decays, then can't hold as much water and dries and decays some more.

As Joseph Romm points out on Grist and Climate Progress, that potentially makes the peat loop a link in a bigger, and climatically more important, vicious circle - the one where temperatures raised by human emissions start an uncontrollable release of methane and carbon dioxide from natural stores like peat and permafrost.

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Has Arctic summer sea ice tipped?

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For the long view on the 2008 Arctic sea ice melt, see today’s commentary on Nature Reports Climate Change by two National Snow and Ice Data Center researchers. Mark Serreze and Julienne Stroeve recap the results:


The seasonal minimum for 2008, occurring on 14 September, entered the books as the second-lowest of the satellite era, probably the second-lowest of at least a century, and just behind the standing record set in 2007.

Barely second-lowest still came as a shock, given the cooler weather this year. Said Stroeve in an NISDC press release, “I find it incredible that we came so close to beating the 2007 record — without the especially warm and clear conditions we saw last summer. I hate to think what 2008 might have looked like if weather patterns had set up in a more extreme way. ”

August 2008 saw the fastest melt ever recorded, according to NASA. And ice volume, a bellwether for the future, probably was at its lowest this year - an observation that hasn’t reached the broadsheets (but see Climate Progress and Stoat).

NSIDC scientist Walt Meier explains, “Warm ocean waters helped contribute to ice losses this year, pushing the already thin ice pack over the edge. In fact, preliminary data indicates that 2008 probably represents the lowest volume of Arctic sea ice on record, partly because less multiyear ice is surviving now, and the remaining ice is so thin.”

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Super Tuesday for the EU

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Tomorrow’s been dubbed Super Tuesday for EU climate policy, with the EU Parliament set to vote on proposals that follow up the climate change legislation proposed at the start of the year.

But what was once touted as a cutting-edge vision has turned into a tough sell. By the end of last week, Polish leaders announced they’d added a sixth country, Greece, to the coalition they’ve been building against parts of the plan - creating a large enough minority to block a decision.

Their beef is with auctioning of emissions permits under a revamped European carbon-trading system, scheduled to start in 2013. The financial turmoil that’s muddied the political path in the US is also having an effect here, sharpening countries’ concerns about their high-emissions industries - whose lobbyists have protested all along that the cost of buying permits will push them out of Europe. “This crisis changes priorities,” said German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier last week. “One cannot rule out that interest in protecting the climate will change.”

So various cushions are on offer. Companies may be allowed to buy half their permits from carbon-offset projects in the developing world, which makes them cheaper; and there’s a leaked list of industries that could get their emissions rights spooned out for free, though such get-out clauses weren’t supposed to be inked until after the UN attempts a global climate change deal in Copenhagen in December 2009.

These solutions don’t work for Poland. Its problem is reportedly not manufacturers that have to compete with Chinese and Indian counterparts, but its electricity industry, overwhelmingly based on Polish coal. As The Economist explains thoroughly and sympathetically, making coal too expensive - which is the whole point of the policy - will push Poland toward natural gas supplied by the increasingly scary Russia.

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Breadbasket or dust bowl?

dustbowl_kansas293x227s.jpgThe Great Plains of the United States, late twenty-first century: breadbasket or dust bowl?

It may depend on groundwater storage, finds a study published in Nature Geoscience this week (subscription required). The results are based on an unusually sophisticated watershed model that connects the below-ground water sources, surface water and the land surface itself.

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Snakes on a wave

When Nature (subscription) looked over the whole portfolio of carbon-free electricity options last month, it left wave power for last. In contrast to mature technologies like hydropower and up-and-coming ones like solar, most ideas for capturing the energy of pounding surf “remain firmly in the testing phase”, they wrote.

One project moving out of that phase involves three ‘wave snakes’ that the company Pelamis has just installed off the coast of Portugal - long, cherry-red tubes that wiggle in the waves and use the motion to drive generators, whose electricity passes onto the Portuguese grid. This video hosted by the Guardian shows how they work (and couples soothing music to the animated undulation - I may save the link for next time I’m up at night worrying about the energy crisis).

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IPCC elections

cho-chairs.jpgCheck out my story today on NRCC for details on the IPCC elections held last week. News in brief: Rajendra Pachauri is chairman again - he had no contenstants for the chief job on the next assessment report, having overseen the UN climate panel's transformation to Nobel-winning semi-household name last year. But new co-chairs will lead the three working groups, and their elections had a novel feature: voting.

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Geoengineering: preparing for the worst

After decades on the fringe, geoengineering proposals have almost become mainstream in the last couple of years. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A now has a special issue on the topic (free access as of 5 Sept.).

There are plenty of ideas these days for purposefully messing with large-scale Earth systems in the hope of offsetting global warming. The Phil Trans A articles don't catalogue them, though Stephen Schneider of Stanford touches on many in a great review article. A pair of papers by the University of Edinburgh's Stephen Salter, NCAR's John Latham, and their colleagues discuss spraying micron-wide particles of sea water into the air to make clouds whiter so that they reflect more light. Ocean fertilization is defended against 20 years of outcry by Victor Smetacek of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research and Wajih Naqvi of the Indian National Institute of Oceanography. And one from Philip Rasch of NCAR and co-authors deals with sulphate aerosols.

But the journal also gives space to plans for power-plant carbon capture - which in fairness was only recently promoted (or de-promoted) out of the geoengineering category - and one of the lesser-known alternative fuels. And the overall focus is the same philosophical question discussed at a recent EGU meeting: how seriously should we pursue geoengineering, given the dangers of huge side effects?

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Graphing climate policy progress

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At the IPCC’s twentieth birthday party Sunday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon urged the diplomats present to get moving - now - on the post-Kyoto climate treaty. "We must fight the urge to postpone everything until Copenhagen,” where the treaty is to be finalized in 2009, he said. “Surely we can make concrete progress on some issues."

How much progress? The glass-half-full view is that the latest talks, wrapping up in Accra, Ghana, last week, already took some modest but visible steps forward - particularly on reducing emissions from deforestation and heavy industry. On the other hand, the major climate conference in Poznan, Poland, this December happens while President Bush is still in office, meaning that any change in the US stance is on hold until 2009.

And if this year’s meeting prepares the ground well enough to avoid bitter eleventh-hour struggles over crucial divisions in Copenhagen, it will be a historic first.

To mark the IPCC’s anniversary, NRCC debuted a timeline of the international policy debates that first gave birth to the IPCC, and then were shaped by its findings. In sifting through accounts of past climate negotiations while working on the timeline, I was struck by the invariable tales of gruesome battles into the wee hours. The classic was Kyoto in 1997, as reported by the Washington Post:

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Permafrost study breaks ground

Arctic permafrost has been the subject of much global warming worry, but not so much detailed research. A new survey of North American Arctic permafrost published in Nature Geoscience this week (subscription required) breaks new ground, literally.

News accounts have focused on the paper’s bottom-line estimate: there is 60% more carbon frozen up there than previously thought. That’s a total of 98.2 billion tonnes of carbon, one-sixth of the amount currently circulating through the atmosphere.

Existing estimates already show more permafrost carbon around the globe than atmospheric carbon. If warming - which is happening faster in the Arctic than anywhere else - releases even a small portion of that store into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane, the results won’t be pretty, especially if the amount frozen in the Asian north is also more than expected. Permafrost has been called a “slow-motion time bomb”, and the effects of its melting are not included in most global climate models.

The new research is by Chien-Lu Ping of the University of Alaska Fairbanks and colleagues. How did they do it?


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Undergraduates are rational, and other findings from Green Psychology

green brain.jpg USA Today has staked out the environmental-news angle on the annual American Psychological Association conference, ongoing this weekend. The behemoth meeting has some 16,000 attendees flocking to talks on everything from Pharmacotherapy to Peace Psychology. Those are actual topic headings in the programme, whereas Green Psychology is not. But the paper’s reporter Sharon Jayson cleverly rounds up a few 'green' presentations - new, unpublished research about how sustainability messages filter through the brain of the poor media-besieged layperson.

For example, scolding doesn’t work - and may lead the scolded to quietly give up on greening up. Though this study surveyed undergraduates, there is preliminary evidence that its findings also apply to presidential administrations.

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The year the climate changed

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An elegant Reuters headline from the paleoclimate world:

Climate chill came exactly 12,679 years ago: study

I got a kick out of this story, having read Gavin Schmidt and Elisabeth Moyer’s NRCC op-ed last week on the chilly gap between paleoclimatologists and climate modellers (and the perhaps-even-chillier one between climate scientists and economists). Schmidt and Moyer point out that while the paleo crowd may “assume that modellers have a myopic view of climate history”, modellers “may assume that palaeo-science is too anecdotal, qualitative and localized to be of use for quantitative modelling.”

Per that headline, however, paleo researchers occasionally make delightfully precise statements - when they get their hands on a sample that yields data at the right timescale. But even then, connecting snapshots of the past with future climate scenarios is not straightforward.

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Slap on the wrist for 'Swindle'

A ruling came in yesterday on complaints about the UK documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle. On The Great Beyond, Katharine Sanderson notes that despite very negative headlines about the ruling,

you might say that Channel 4 got off pretty lightly for their documentary that suggested that global warming wasn’t caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Ofcom [the complaint board] charged the programme with misrepresenting certain scientists, which leads to those critical headlines, but ultimately the regulators said that the programme didn’t mislead viewers.

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A precipitous rise in extreme rainfall

cloudburst.jpgGlobal warming has been expected to bring not only droughts, but also floods, because what rain you get comes hammering down harder. And the downpours of the future now look to be even more drenching than expected.

A new Nature Geoscience paper (subscription required) considers the intensity of precipitation measured hour by hour for a century in the Dutch town of De Bilt. Theoretically, it’s thought that the intensity of rainfall, including the biggest cloudbursts, should rise by 7% for each degree Celsius that the temperature goes up. That’s based on a thermodynamics equation called the Clausius-Clapeyron relation - and it’s what you see if you look at extreme rainfall on the scale of days.

But it's the rainiest hours, not the rainiest days, that interest the paper's authors, Geert Lenderink and Erik Van Meijgaard of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. That turns out to make a difference.

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How to tell a climate story

Stop the presses! The rising profile of global warming and "unprecedented media emphasis on weather" are inspiring too many bright-eyed young meteorologists-to-be.

Score one backhanded hit for climate writers against "the tyranny of the news peg" (in Andy Revkin’s much-quoted phrase) and other obstacles to effective coverage.

Or sheer brute-force coverage, as some say. The Guardian today spends a special supplement worrying that the oversaturated public has "climate fatigue" (self-fulfillingly, I’m sure - their harping on this story is making me wonder if it's time to adapt The Economist's recession index to environmental journalism).

So how to tell a climate story that does manage to cut through the haze? That seems, a bit surprisingly, to be the central concern of a new indie docu-comedy.

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EPA trashes its own report

In case anyone doubted the Bush administration’s resolve on climate policy during these last lame-duck months, they’ve just used the thump of a 500-page EPA report hitting the bin to hammer it home.

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Biodiversity vs. carbon sinks - an Oregon tale

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When I tell people I grew up in Oregon, they usually have one of two reactions. Some faces tense as they try to place the state on their mental US map somewhere around Nevada (actually it’s on the Pacific coast, above California). Others light up because they’re about to say, “Oh, it’s beautiful there!”

If you don’t mind drizzling rain or hay fever - so much grass seed is grown in my native Willamette Valley that in summer the local paper prints the pollen count next to the weather forecast - it really can be pretty nice. There's a new PNAS article straight out of that valley, balancing the benefits of conserving its various lovely natural landscapes - wetlands, prairie, oak savannah, and conifer forests.

Wetlands.jpgManaging land use to encourage these ecosystems can boost biodiversity and create carbon sinks that help mitigate climate change.

No, strike that: it can boost biodiversity or create sinks.

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The global warming signal minus the El Niño noise

Andrew Revkin of the New York Times has been wondering whether climatologists could help turn down the “rhetorical noise” on recent temperature trends:

Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short-term cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades-long graph of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short-term up-and-down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.

He queried Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate, who’s pondered how to reduce the noise (and beat the rhetoric) on climate trends before. Schmidt thought of the recent Nature paper in which David Thompson et al. removed ENSO fluctuations from the sea surface temperature record (and uncovered an abrupt 1945 temperature drop that they traced to buckets used to collect seawater after World War II).

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Parched Australia told to trade emissions

Muja_Power_Station.jpgRoss Garnaut, the down-under equivalent of Nicholas Stern, offered up a draft report Friday on the costs of climate change in Australia and an emissions trading scheme for dealing with it.

The reaction? Garnaut mania, says Daniel Cressey on The Great Beyond. The report's server was overloaded at the time of this blogging - despite the gauntlet of rewrites that still stands between this document and actual legislation, as Daniel points out.

If global warming goes unmitigated, Garnaut figures projected GDP will drop 4.8% and real wages 7.8% by 2100. Agriculture is one sector set to take a beating - and that's in the context of droughts that have already dug into Asia's rice supply (thanks to Grist for link; more on climate, energy and global food supply here).

The proposed emissions market has a broad scope, including transportation and petroleum products. It won't be a revenue-raiser though - households are supposed to get half the proceeds to offset rising prices, businesses another 30% against international competition, and the last 20% goes to developing and commercializing new technologies. For wonkier details, see Reuters' factbox.

Worth noting: At the national level, what Garnaut's recommending is a short-term band-aid plan. From the report summary:

Australia's mitigation effort is our contribution to keeping alive the possibility of an effective global agreement on mitigation.

(A bit bleak, no? Other countries have called their climate policies leadership, not life support.)
Any effort prior to effective, comprehensive global agreement should be short, transitional, and directed at achievement of global agreement.

Australian carbon trading won't make the difference between ruin and recovery, says the report - only a global emissions market will. For any hint of progress on that front, look to this week's G8 summit, where Olive Heffernan is blogging from Hokkaido for Climate Feedback.

Anna Barnett

Image: Coal-fired power plant in Western Australia. If carbon consumption goes unmitigated, says the Garnaut report, coal-addicted Oz can expect quadrupled emissions, mostly from power. Credit: Nachoman-au on Wikimedia.

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One earth, one US agency

240px-The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17.jpgThe next US president should merge two huge government research agencies to bring forth a new independent and comprehensive Earth science body - that’s the idea put forth in a commentary by former agency heads in Science yesterday (subscription required). They call for NOAA and the USGS become a single Earth Systems Science Agency, ESSA.

That merger would ring a few nostalgic bells, since NOAA was once also called ESSA (for Environmental Science Services Administration). And it would bureaucratically marry the atmospheric and ocean research at NOAA to the terrestrial, freshwater and biological studies at the USGS. To face the daunting agenda of “climate change, sea-level rise, altered weather patterns, declines in freshwater availability and quality, and loss of biodiversity,” the authors say, the US needs massive scientific support from an integrated, streamlined institution - one as seamless as the Earth system itself.

But would ESSA really produce better science? The proposal’s authors have tempting suggestions for changes under a new agency, not least upping the amount of money that would leave the building: grants to outside researchers total a few percent of current NOAA and USGS budgets, they told me, but they want the sum to be at least 25% at ESSA. They also call for Big Science modelling and monitoring programs, and even for research into breakthrough green tech, a la DARPA.

Such plans would have to be hashed out over and above the decision to put ESSA together, however. Meanwhile, trying to mesh the USGS and NOAA missions could have interesting effects. What would happen, for example, to NOAA's marine fisheries programs? NOAA is housed in the Department of Commerce, where commercial fishing interests are sometimes seen to clash with conservation. Mark Schaefer, former USGS director and the ESSA proposal’s lead author, said creating the hoped-for independent, nonregulatory agency might mean moving fisheries regulation to the Fish and Wildlife Service in the Department of the Interior, where protecting natural resources is key.

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When warming met technology: a Romm Comm

Don't grieve the Boxer-Lieberman-Warner climate bill, urges Joseph Romm in a Nature Reports Climate Change Commentary this week. Romm, voice of the Climate Progress blog, writes:


Although hailed as landmark legislation, the proposal, which died after it failed to muster close to the required 60 votes [in the US Senate], would not have put the nation on the path required to help avert catastrophic climate change.

The bill, like most climate plans now up for serious debate around the world, relied heavily on imposing a financial penalty for carbon emissions. But Europe's up-and-running emissions market has done little to curb the continent's appetite for carbon, and that should make legislators and negotiators queasy, argues Romm.

"The United States simply cannot wait another decade to find out whether domestic cap-and-trade legislation will drive carbon dioxide to a high enough price to curb emissions growth sharply," he says. Nor is new technology the answer:

Such is the urgent need to reverse emissions trends by deploying a multitude of low-carbon technologies that we must rely on technologies that either are already commercial or will very shortly be so. Fortunately, venture capitalists and public companies have begun to inject many billions of dollars into the development and short-term commercialization of most plausible low-carbon technologies. Governments should now focus their R&D spending on a longer-term effort aimed at a new generation of technologies for the emissions reduction effort after 2040, but the notion that we need a Manhattan Project or Apollo programme for technology development is mistaken. Instead, what is urgently needed is an effort of that scale focused on the deployment of technology.

Romm said more about this Thursday in a cross-posted entry at Climate Progress and Grist, in the process resurrecting a set-to with Roger Pielke, Jr, on their respective blogs in April and May.

Romm at that time argued for the importance of carbon costs - though only as one prong on the pitchfork he was wielding against a Nature Commentary by Pielke and co-authors.

Meanwhile, the most recent opinion Pielke's offered on our site is that the need for R&D isn't up for debate anymore - it's all about how to price carbon.

Anna Barnett

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Climate change 'for a crowded planet'

Sachs.JPGDevelopment economist Jeffrey Sachs, famous for the economic turnarounds he's helped engineer as an advisor to Latin American and Eastern European governments, is also known for his optimism that the living standards of the world's poorest can be raised much higher without sacrificing either the wealth of the industrialized world or crucial natural resources. But among analysts of global change, optimism is relative. "I believe that there is most likely a path of sustainable development, but we can't quite be sure," Sachs told a sold-out lecture hall at the London Zoo last night. "It's a question mark."

Sachs spoke on big themes from his new book Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet, notably the need for expansion beyond market-based thinking to face problems not dreamt of in Adam Smith's philosophy. Before and after this rousing overview (if you'd bet ahead of time that Sachs would quote John F. Kennedy at length, you'd have won), I had the chance to get some nittier, grittier details on how Sachs wants to deal with climate change.

More and better government investment in foreign aid and green tech is the number-one key for Sachs - only the US presidential turnover seemed to run a close second, and cap-and-trading was off in the distance. So he didn't hesitate to offer a laundry list of projects that he thinks need much more political commitment - among them carbon capture and storage, passively heated and cooled green buildings, and super duper climate computers.

Technological solutions often raise ownership problems, though. If, for example, the agrobiotech industry produces new 'climate-proof' crop varieties that survive floods and droughts - an innovation Sachs welcomed at a recent climate modelling summit - can the developing world afford to buy the seeds?

"One of the things we’ve learned from the battle over access to anti-retroviral medicines," Sachs said - and this was a battle he himself fought - "is that it’s possible to create hybrid systems where you have intellectual property rights applied mainly in the high-income markets and you have access at the cost of production, or on a no-profit basis, in the poor countries."

In the case of African food shortages, he added, simple, readily available remedies like chemical fertilizers and high-yield non-GMO crops had been "sitting on the shelf" until the global food price crisis grabbed headlines. We shouldn't have to wait for disasters before we take the equivalent action on climate change, he said.

What about politics? Since Sachs's talk didn't go much beyond sighing relief at Bush's departure, I asked him afterward about his hopes for the upcoming G8 conference in July. More dubious optimism here: "There are a lot of things I'd hope for. That doesn't mean I'm expecting much to happen."

Honoring commitments to monetary aid and technology transfer is the first step, he told me. To get a global climate agreement out of the UN process, he also thinks we need to start by welcoming the economic growth of rapidly developing nations like China and India. "That's the icebreaker on this first date," he said. From that viewpoint, country-specific emissions targets can be set that correspond to growth along the greenest possible paths.

By 2050, he explained, that might mean that the North cuts its greenhouse emissions by 80% while India's emissions are allowed to double - a contraction-and-convergence plan. Because China and India have even more to fear from climate change than does the wealthier world, he said, it's an ultimatum they'll have to accept: "You're going to develop. But you're going to do it with the best technology."

Anna Barnett

Photo: Sachs working in the Millennium Village of Mwandama, Malawi.

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Clean, green flying machines

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What happens to the planet if air traffic keeps multiplying too fast for new climate-friendly plane upgrades to keep pace with the rising greenhouse emissions? The IPCC mulled it over almost a decade ago, even before sounding its 2001 global warming alarm call. Lately the problem has been pressing ever harder on European consciences, so that EU parliament members recently vowed to fast-track plans for trading aviation emissions on a carbon market - while airlines yelped defensively that they'd gotten an unfair tarring in mediagenic protests.

Silent Aircraft 3.JPGLondon's Science Museum examines this race of energy efficiency against passenger numbers in a new exhibit, Does Flying Cost the Earth?, which I took a look at in Nature Reports Climate Change this week. Much of the show is reproduced online, including the museum's smart matrix of pros and cons for various technologies proposed to clean up jet fumes. (There are more details in a recent roundup of aviation innovation from Nature News; subscription required.) For a quick gut-level hit of the central dilemma, the museum has included a very simple video game where you're in charge of containing the damage from a booming aviation industry.

The exhibition doesn't manage to answer whether flying costs the earth, as I explained in my review, but it astutely reflects the general anxiety about how to take iconically modern airplanes into a greener future. "We all love to travel," Rough Guide travel writer Mark Ellingham told journalists and industry sponsors at the exhibit's opening, "and we don't want to feel a sense of shame about it."

Anna Barnett

Images: The 1935 Lockheed Electra (top), an early commercial airliner featuring a then-cutting-edge aluminium-alloy skin, overlooks the entrance to the Science Museum's exhibition of green aviation technology for the twenty-first century. Highly aerodynamic 'blended-wing' plane designs (bottom) may be seen on runways in 25 years.

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Food fears and biofuel blame at UN meeting

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From claims that obese Westerners are devouring the world's produce to pleas that panicked developing nations stop hoarding it, recriminations were flying at a two-day UN conference focused on soaring international food prices this week - and The Guardian reports that anger ran highest over US policies aggressively promoting biofuels farming. Small wonder: the International Monetary Fund has estimated that the trend toward farms producing fuel instead of food is responsible for 20-30% of recent price spikes, the International Food Policy Research Institute, a US think tank, came up with 30%, and the clean-energy research firm New Energy Research offered a more conservative 8%. But US agriculture secretary Ed Schafer would own up to only 3%.

And while the food riots resulting from price rises are easy to see, the environmental benefits of biofuels are not. Report after report this year has warned that flight from fossil fuels to biofuels could see forests cleared and cropland diverted while both food costs and greenhouse emissions rise.

Ethanol fuel made from corn - big business in the US - has taken particularly heavy blame for food prices, as it uses up grain that could feed people and livestock, and fields that could be planted with other edible crops. Last year's US energy bill included a full-steam-ahead target to quintuple ethanol production in 15 years - a commitment that John McCain and 23 other Senate Republicans last month urged the EPA to ignore because of the food crisis. Across the pond, the EU is still trying to figure out how to insert sustainability caveats into its controversial plan to make 10% of all transport fuel renewable (i.e. plant-based) by 2020.

Aside from the ethanol acrimony, the UN meeting heard another strident message: Ban Ki-moon's call for 50% more agricultural production by 2030 to support a rising global population. To make this much food, the world may not be able to spare many fields for ethanol.

For more on what's driving food prices - including the possibility that we've lost some arable land to global warming and are set to lose more - Grist's breakdown and this International Food Policy Research Institute report are good places to start. And this recent Nature News story (subscription required) has a look over the biofuel industry's horizon.

Anna Barnett

Photo: Harvey Leifert

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Meeting heads off Arctic oil disputes

398px-Northpole_polarstern_hg.jpgThe predicted effects of climate change can be counted on to shake up international relations, even far from the impoverished, politically wobbly regions where the most obvious conflicts loom. A case in point is the tranquil Arctic seabed, believed to hold a substantial fraction* of the world's undeveloped oil reserves - which, as the summer sea ice extent decreases year by year, is suddenly set to become accessible for extraction.

As such, the Arctic Ocean is a new source of friction among the five countries that claim portions of it as their sovereign territory: the US, Canada, Norway, Denmark, and Russia, the latter of which elicited clucking from some of the others in August when it sent a submersible to the sea bottom and planted a titanium national flag at the underwater North Pole. And more than the pole is up for grabs. In a great piece on the politics of Arctic climate change in Vanity Fair, Alex Shoumatoff writes:

Last summer, Canada’s Northwest Passage was nearly free of ice and completely navigable for a few weeks—for the first time since records have been kept. This fabled route to the Orient, which eluded Henry Hudson, Sir Francis Drake, and Martin Frobisher, and was finally navigated by the Norwegian Roald Amundsen in 1905, would reshape global trade, being thousands of miles shorter than most currently used shipping routes, though it won’t be clear long enough to be commercially viable for at least another 15 to 20 years. Canada has claimed the passage as its internal waterway since the early 1970s, but the U.S. maintains that it is an international strait, through which any vessel, including submerged submarines gathering intelligence, has the right of “transit passage.”

On Wednesday, the five Arctic-bordering nations met in the tiny town of Ilulissat, Greenland, with the intention of staving off inconvenient squabbles over the newly unfrozen oil and gas sources. The high-level delegates sent to handle the promise of a new oil rush agreed to proceed in an orderly fashion and allow the UN to decide who owns what (Reuters, New York Times, FT).

When the UN rules on territorial rights, it will be ruling on geoscience. At issue is how far the continental shelf under each nation extends into the ocean - the criterion for sovereignty under the 1982 UN Law of the Sea Convention (still not ratified by the US Senate, which will apparently have to overcome past reluctance in order to achieve the country's Arctic aims). Wednesday's declaration gives the claimants time to gather scientific evidence to present to a commission on continental shelves.

The agreement also avoids aiming for a treaty like the one concocted to settle wrangling over Antarctica in the 1950s. A 1991 addition to the Antarctic treaty forbids exploitation of mineral resources until 2048, which may be why the delegates in Ilulissat hastened to hand their disagreements over to the UN and emphasize that no special laws would be necessary up north. Environmental groups, excluded from the meeting, would naturally prefer a treaty that could offer strong protection for Arctic ecosystems already stressed by warming.

Anna Barnett

Photo: North Pole sign set up by the crew and scientists of the German research vessel Polarstern; Hannes Grobe

*Often said to be 25% - erroneously, according to Shoumatoff.

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Google Earth warms

google earth logos crop.bmpThe British Antarctic Survey and the UK's Met Office have released a pair of new layers for Google Earth that depict the effects of climate change across a 3D map of the globe. In one fell swoop, this about doubles the amount of climate content that's easily accessible from the Google Earth Gallery and Showcase pages.

To check out the maps, download and install Google Earth, then click here to download and open the map file (in KML format) from BAS and here for the Met Office map. (If Google Earth doesn't run when you click those links, you'll have to run it yourself and open the KML files from the File menu.) They will load into the 'Places' bar on the left - checking boxes there displays the content.

Both maps make good use of the program's time-series tool: as you watch an animation or drag a slider, BAS shows Antarctic ice shelves receding over recent decades, and then the Met Office steps in with a color-coded overlay of expected future warming under a medium-emissions scenario. There are also 'push-pins' in both layers that, when clicked, pop up photos, videos and text on climate impacts around the world.

Hours of fascinated clicking
may or may not ensue, but the animated 3D globe definitely works well for representing the big scope of global warming in space and time - at least to those interested laypeople who can jockey the occasionally perverse controls. (Word to newcomers: skip the play button in the left-hand panel, which just flies you around helplessly. To start the time series, you want the one that appears at the top of the screen after you click the left-hand checkbox 'Vanishing Ice Sheets' or 'Temperature Animation'. Note also that you must reach the 21st century before the Met Office push-pins will appear.)

What's missing from this particular Google Worldview is much sense of the rich complexity of climate data and the science that produces it. Outside the climate world, ecologists studying bristlecone pines at the University of California have posted a terrific KML file demonstrating how they use the program to collectively record their fieldwork. They include a tree-by-tree data set of coordinates and photos alongside notes such as "not a good site - dead cow here".

Are there any climate science or geoscience labs making maps that cool - and would they consider going public?

Anna Barnett

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Oil heirs mutiny at Exxon

2007_there_will_be_blood_013.jpgWith much of the corporate world competing to be ahead of the decarbonization curve, it's not uncommon to see investors actually begging governments for more regulations, as a prominent group in the US did this week. More remarkable is witnessing oil goliath Exxon Mobil torn by a climate-driven shareholder revolt and its backlash.

On fossil fuels and climate change, Exxon in the past has not so much failed to read the writing on the wall as actively attempted to efface it. That's changed, but not enough, say the heirs of John D. 'Standard Oil' Rockefeller, whose ancestral ex-monopoly forms Exxon's core. The Rockefellers are sponsoring four shareholder resolutions that will come to a vote at the company's annual shareholder meeting May 28. According to The Independent, they say Exxon needs to research how climate change will affect the developing world, fund alternative fuels, reduce its carbon footprint, and spur more managerial debate by splitting up the roles of chariman and CEO - both posts are currently held by Rex Tillerson. At last year's meeting, says The Guardian, a call to split up Tillerson's jobs got 40% yays, and addressing climate change got 30%. With a vast green tide and 19 institutional investors backing up the Rockefellers (who own only 0.006% of Exxon's stock, the company says), this year could see even greater support.

But the Wall Street Journal - ever the champion of the little guy - noted in an editorial yesterday (subscription required) that blue-collar investors have struck back. According to the Journal, US police union leader Chuck Canterbury wrote to Tillerson that the resolutions

would impose "rigid, ideologically-based conditions on the company's future," would nullify "the judgment of a highly successful management team," and would "undercut every project and business operation." This would "hamstring ExxonMobil's profitability and growth, thus directly harming the police officers, firefighters, teachers and public employees whose retirement savings are invested in the company."

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Population: elephant in the greenhouse?

climate.2008.44-i1 In debates over how to mitigate the effects of climate change, is the burgeoning human population an elephant in the room? A projected 9 billion people will have to share a warming planet by 2050, yet as Kerri Smith writes in Nature Reports Climate Change this week, the climatic effects of their rising numbers and shifting demographics has received surprisingly little study.

Population is a touchy subject, bringing to mind oppressive campaigns against growth - like China's one-child system, or forced sterilization programs - as well as false past predictions of an imminent catastrophe. But it’s becoming clear that the problem is more complex than a ticking ‘population bomb’. Numbers are exploding in the world’s poorest societies - a trend that CIA chief Michael V. Hayden recently chose above climate or energy issues as one of the key changes facing the 21st century. Because of the low emissions per head in these societies, Smith explains,


Reducing population growth in Niger, for example, where the population size is predicted to triple by mid-century, would not have a dramatic effect on emissions right now. And in many countries in Europe — where reducing emissions levels is more pressing — populations are declining, so a demography-based climate strategy would be ineffective. In a generation's time, however, when developing countries begin industrializing apace, a large population could be bad news.

An aging industrialized world could wrinkle the picture further, as could increasing urbanization. Meanwhile, Hayden fears that the population patterns themselves will precipitate political instability - which climate change is expected to exacerbate.

The solutions to this complex problem could be subtle, or at least subtler than enforcing a small average family size. Fred Meyerson, an ecologist, demographer and environmental policy researcher, told Smith that simply improving access to family planning in the last 50 years has very effectively reduced population growth, and the UN Population Division's Thomas Buettner pointed out the knock-on effect that this has had on greenhouse gas emissions. (A new book by the WorldWatch Institute’s Robert Engelman puts a finer point on it, arguing that in countries where empowerment of women gives them say over the matter, they invariably choose to have two children or fewer on average.)

And this month's headlines show how far-reaching the links are between slowing population growth and preventing climate-induced crises, Meyerson added in an email:

Each million/billion [people] we add puts more people in the path of natural disasters such as the recent Asian cyclone and drought/starvation, some of which are climate change-induced. Adaptation to those changing conditions (including migration, if needed) is obviously much more manageable with 8 rather 11 billion people. And emissions mitigation - for instance, a move from fossil fuels to biofuels - is also much more problematic if the lion's share of the solar energy budget of the terrestrial surface is needed to meet the food needs of a large population and not available for energy production. (That debate is already ongoing with the spike of food prices and the use of corn for ethanol production, but it will surely increase as we add ~75 million people each year to the population over the next few decades.)

Anna Barnett

Photo: Lusi, SXC

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RealClimate roll up to the climate casino

gambling.jpgMoney talks, and so do bloggers. Unable to resist the correlation, a number of climate scientists and analysts have adapted their online podiums into betting tables. The RealClimate team are the latest to roll up to the climate casino, staking €5,000 against the predictions of a recent Nature paper (subscription required) that in the next decade, falling temperatures in some regions will cause a slight slowdown in global warming.

The paper's authors, Keenlyside et al., have yet to accept or reject the bet, and it's not available to any other cooling proponent who may be feeling lucky. But if your opinion on global warming is burning a hole in your pocket, you have some options. Brian Schmidt's Backseat Driving, for example, lists several standing offers to all takers.

Those like Schmidt who back the scientific consensus that the Earth is warming, however, have had a hard time convincing anyone to gamble large sums on cooling. A few bookmaker's highlights:

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In the ozone

Aura.gifA paper in Nature Geoscience this week (subscription required) serves up an important figure for climate modellers: the size of the greenhouse effect caused by ozone near the Earth's surface, estimated from direct observations.

Whereas 20 years ago the discovery that the stratospheric ozone layer was thinning led to international prohibitions on ozone-eating chemicals, this new study reflects concerns about excess ozone produced nearer to the ground, in the troposphere, by reacting pollutants. Tropospheric ozone is a greenhouse gas - and although carbon dioxide still gets the most column inches, other greenhouse gases such as ozone (see also methane) are drawing more and more scientific attention.

Previously, the best estimates of the radiative forcing from ozone - its planet-warming power - came from simulations. The latest IPCC report used several such models to assess forcing from anthropogenic ozone alone, excluding ozone from natural sources, and came up with a range of values from 0.25 to 0.65 watts per square metre (in comparison, forcing by all anthropogenic greenhouse gases together was estimated at 1.6 watts per square metre). Now, NASA's Aura satellite has collected enough measurements of infrared radiation and ozone thickness in cloudless patches of sky to pin down the combined effects of natural and human-produced ozone. According to these data, the global average forcing in the year 2006 was 0.48 (+/- 0.14) watts per square metre. No surprises, but a palpable step forward in the hardworking and sometimes underappreciated field of Earth observation.

Anna Barnett

Image: Artist's rendering of Aura satellite, NASA

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Can we solve global warming by reshaping Web 2.0?

Sick of fractious climate blogging? MIT researcher Mark Klein and his colleagues are envisioning a souped-up new forum on global warming - described as "simultaneously a kind of Wikipedia for controversial topics, a Sims game for the future of the planet, and an electronic democracy on steroids" - that they say could reshape public discourse.

It's called the Climate Collaboratorium. Here's what it might look like, in part:
(click for larger version, or download the original PDF)

collaboratorium.JPG

What you see is the heart of the idea, a discussion structure known as an 'argument tree'. Mason Inman*, writing about the project for Nature Network recently, summarized it well:

The structure requires people to present their comments in one of four categories: issues to be addressed, options for resolving those issues, the pros in favor of various options, and the cons against them. In this way, the debate could become self-organized, making it easier for people to see what’s been said, and whether points have been supported or rebutted.

Succinct, logical debate threads instead of arguments spread over dozens of sites... ideas neatly aggregated rather than forgotten with the next news cycle... pardon my nerd-drool.

But will it work? Last December, Klein and two researchers at the University of Naples tried out a prototype on 220 Italian engineering students, asking them to create an argument tree on the question "What is the future of biofuels?" The students seemed to love the forum - their steady 24/7 stream of posts totaled over 5,000 after two weeks - but they weren't particularly good at keeping the discussion on track. The argument trees needed continuous pruning and rearranging by a dedicated group of moderators, who would have to make up 5-10% of the user population in a larger-scale Collaboratorium, the researchers estimated.

Klein is now starting more tests with Swiss and Italian students that will evaluate whether the Collaboratorium produces superior content and better-informed participants compared with ordinary wikis and forums. How to arrange for quality control in the project's next phase, however, is still something of an open question. Climate modeller and RealClimate blogger Gavin Schmidt (who's recently defended climate blogging in Nature Geoscience (subscription) and on RealClimate) told Inman* that generating respect for an open forum on climate "is by far the most challenging aspect of this proposal". Doubtless, many top climate scientists - who may at times volunteer half their workload toward the IPCC reports already - wouldn't get around to participating in the fledgling project. Fortunately, they do have grad students.

The fully realized Collaboratorium, as outlined in this paper by Klein and collaborator Thomas Malone, would be even more ambitious. Their vision relies heavily, for example, on users building their own climate models that are integrally linked to the speculation and debate going on in the argument tree. Above all, though, Malone and Klein stress the need for a more powerful tool to help us get our collective heads around climate change:

Today's on-line discussion forums, blogs, and chat rooms do a good job of encouraging lots of people to express their opinions and share them widely. But these systems are not very good at supporting evidence-based, logical deliberation: the quality of contributions can vary enormously.

Andrew Leonard at Salon has aptly compared this to "saying nuclear bombs do a good job when employed for purposes of mass destruction, but are not so great for handcrafting quality woodwork."

What do you think, climate debaters? Could a more sophisticated approach force out a high-quality product?

Anna Barnett

[UPDATE: Klein also pointed me to this 10-minute video summarizing the Collaboratorium structure and its differences from traditional forums]

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Don't know much about history, don't know much about the IPCC

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James Hansen and Michael McCracken - two extremely prominent and vocal climate scientists - have rallied behind a US high-school senior who questioned statements in his civics textbook that play up scientific uncertainty on global warming. Now the book's publisher, Houghton Mifflin, is promising to reassess its accuracy (AP, Dot Earth, Grist, Treehugger). From the AP:

Legal scholars and top scientists say the teen's criticism is well-founded. They say "American Government" by conservatives James Wilson and John Dilulio presents a skewed view of topics from global warming to separation of church and state. The publisher now says it will review the book, as will the College Board, which oversees college-level Advanced Placement courses used in high schools.

The student, Matthew LaClair, was already an experienced secondary-ed whistleblower, having taped and exposed religious comments his history teacher made in class last year. He contacted the Center for Inquiry, a pro-science think tank, to point out passages like:

"Science doesn't know whether we are experiencing a dangerous level of global warming or how bad the greenhouse effect is, if it exists at all."

and:
"The earth has become warmer, but is this mostly the result of natural climate changes, or is it heavily influenced by humans putting greenhouse gases into the air?"

Some wording that LaClair highlighted from the 2005 textbook used in his class was toned down in a more recent edition. For example, "Science doesn't know whether we are experiencing a dangerous level of global warming or how bad the greenhouse effect is, if it exists at all," was changed to simply "Science doesn't know how bad the greenhouse effect is." Andrew Revkin at Dot Earth parses this:

As we’ve written many times, the climate system’s response to rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations remains laden with uncertainty. A doubling of concentrations from the long-term ceiling of 280 parts per million for carbon dioxide before the industrial revolution would most likely raise global temperatures 3.6 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit, by the latest I.P.C.C. analysis. So in that legalistic sense, it’s true that science hasn’t defined “how bad” climate change will be.

And that's about the best you can say of these passages, as Revkin, Hansen, McCracken and the Center for Inquiry all make clear in their point-by-point critiques. A response from Houghton Mifflin posted by Revkin falls well short of addressing the problem: the book's authors are describing a climate debate that sounds almost nothing like the IPCC's painstakingly agreed reports. Instead, as Hansen wrote, "these statements are aimed at giving students the mistaken impression that the scientific evidence of global warming is doubtful and uncertain" - a strategy that's familiar to Hansen.

Anna Barnett

Photo: dcJohn

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Post-Bali paradox at UN meeting in Bangkok

ENB_crop.JPGIn Bangkok last week, the first UN climate meeting since Bali wrapped up after struggling til after midnight Friday - not to hammer out emissions targets or controversial new approaches to climate change mitigation, but just to agree on how long to wait before restarting discussions of such matters.

Planned from the start as a meeting to decide what would be decided at future meetings, it was never expected to yield any big breakthroughs. But the hard slog required even to set the work schedule for the next two years worried NGO observers.

“The talks managed to keep the momentum going … but it’s hard to leave Bangkok confident that the deadline can be met,” said Elliot Diringer, director of international strategies at the Pew Center on Climate Change. Marcelo Furtado of Greenpeace Brazil agreed, "If we took all these hours to agree on a workplan, one can only imagine what will happen when the real negotiations take place."

Why so slow? For one thing, the G77 group of developing nations finally dug in their heels against Japan's week-long steady pressure to plan greenhouse gas limits for particular global industrial sectors, in addition to Kyoto-style national targets. Sectoral approaches - heralded recently in Nature Reports Climate Change via this commentary by Glen Peters and Edgar Hertwich and this book review by Gwyn Prins - have the advantage of directly pushing the dirtiest industries to clean up, without leaving less carbon-stringent havens overseas for them to be pushed into. They also distribute mitigation responsibilities to the developing as well as the developed world, something which the US has previously insisted on but which developing countries have warned they cannot afford without more help from the rich North.

An attempt Thursday to summarize the first few days of talks noted emerging views that sectoral approaches could be used to support national targets, though they should not replace them. Made sense to me: sectoral limits could make deep emissions cuts less painful, while national emissions targets maintain a bottom line necessary for keeping the temperature down. But according to ENB, the summary raised a concerned buzz among delegates. That's generally how things were going, though: the day before, ENB had reported that "Some delegates realized that they didn't have a shared vision on a workshop on shared vision."

By Friday, Japan met surprisingly fierce opposition to holding a workshop on sectoral approaches at the next climate conference, to be held in Bonn, Germany, in June. G77 countries, including China, had been pointing to promises from Bali that rich countries would set new national targets and provide mitigation and adaptation funds enabling the South to share the burden of industrial emissions cuts. After wrangling at length, they compromised on a sectoral workshop in August.

The difficulties raise a post-Bali paradox. With the the US back at the table and all eyes on a new deal to dwarf Kyoto, stakes are high. The greater the political will for change, the more there is for each party to gain or lose in the shakeup. We'll see in Bonn whether the cautious rehashing of familiar arguments - typical of first negotiation rounds, as Diringer points out - gives way to actual steps forward.

Anna Barnett

Image: The closing session, just after midnight on Friday; photo courtesy of IISD/Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

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Oz kicks off carbon storage

geosequestration.jpgToday Australia sees the opening of the world's largest trial carbon storage plant (Sydney Morning Herald, BBC, Reuters), the construction of which was covered by Hannah Hoag in Nature Reports Climate Change last year. Since then, soaring costs have prompted the US to junk plans for its FutureGen clean coal power plant, and the down-under demo project is the most massive noncommercial carbon burial site to make it off the drawing board (this Nature News feature rounds up the other contenders as of 2006; subscription required).

For background on how natural rock formations are being used to trap carbon dioxide - and why environmentalists have called the plant a waste of time and money - check out Hannah's report.

Anna Barnett

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Climate predictions vs. observations

In a Science paper last year (subscription required), Rahmstorf et al. pointed to 2001-2006 measurements of global temperature at the top end of the IPCC's 2001 projections - and global sea level rise well beyond the range predicted in 2001 - as evidence that "the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates." Today in a letter to Nature Geoscience (subscription required), Roger Pielke, Jr, questions whether models from that 2001 generation improve on the predictive power of their forbears.

Pielke checks predictions from all four IPCC reports, dating back to 1990, against reality. Each report made a series of 'if-then' statements about the likely results of various emissions scenarios; in hindsight, Pielke can pick out which of these possible greenhouse experiments has actually been running on Earth since 1990 and compare the results to the IPCC's shifting hypotheses.

Whereas the 2001 projections undershot the observed temperatures and sea levels, the 1990 projections overshot them, he concludes. Projections of temperature and sea level fell substantially between the 1990 and 1995 IPCC reports, when aerosols were added to models and carbon-cycle simulations were tweaked. But because they dropped too far, the adjusted post-1995 projections "are not obviously superior in capturing climate evolution", says Pielke.

That's not to say that 2001 models were no better than those a decade older. Including more information has made recent simulations more sophisticated - but so far it hasn't much improved their ability to sketch out future climates, probably because important factors are still missing. Predictions from the two most recent reports do, however, seem to have crept toward the actual climate evolution, and additional rounds of of refinements may help the models to home in further.

Anna Barnett

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Antarctic ice breakup caught on tape

The Guardian was far from alone in reporting this week that "A vast hunk of floating ice has broken away from the Antarctic peninsula, threatening the collapse of a much larger ice shelf behind it, in a development that has shocked climate scientists." On The Great Beyond, Quirin Schiermeier points out that the the most noteworthy thing about this delicately poised hunk of the Wilkins ice shelf may be its media visibility: the loss of a 400-square-kilometre piece of the same shelf earlier this year received no such fanfare.

Still, that visibility is pretty spectacular. Check out this mashup of the Twin Otter plane's flyover footage with the satellite images that tipped off British Antarctic Survey scientists:

"The ice shelf is hanging by a thread," said David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey. "We'll know in the next few days or weeks what its fate will be."

Anna Barnett

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Tax or trading for Canadian carbon?

Canadians are set to slap the first price tag on their greenhouse gas emissions, thanks to some very different initiatives in the works.

Reuters reported Friday that the long-awaited Montreal Climate Exchange will open on May 30, buying and selling voluntary emissions reductions in the same fashion as the Chicago Climate Exchange, its US partner.

Meanwhile, the Canadian government had a few days earlier put out the details of its plan for mandatory emissions reductions, which had likewise been in the works for over a year (a good summary is here; registration required). They're proposing to cut absolute emissions 20% from 2006 levels by 2020 (for those scoring at home, 20% down from 2005 levels would be 0% below 1990 levels, compared to the standard-bearing EU's 20% cut from 1990 levels).

But absolute emissions isn't what they'll limit - they're talking about regulating emissions intensity, or the amount of emissions per unit of production, from 2010. That could make it tough to integrate into a global climate deal, since the EU caps absolute emissions and all three US presidential candidates want to do the same. Interestingly, the plan also mandates carbon capture and storage for oil sands, a carbon-intensive economic lynchpin of the country.

Besides the voluntary market, local measures could already be in play when and if these limits come down. British Columbia is leading the way with what is to be the first carbon tax implemented outside of Europe. Although the tax hasn't been looking very popular and faces the same too-much-is-never-enough criticism that the EU climate bill came in for, liberal leader Stephane Dion now says he'd like the national strategy to be a carbon tax - or something. Anything. "We can talk about what the best model for putting a price on carbon across Canada might be –– but the fact is we need to JUST DO IT. That is what this provincial government has done, and that is what a Liberal government will do," Dion said in a speech in Vancouver.

Conservatives, who will be defending their control in the next election, countered with praise for the Montreal market. And while other provinces remain skeptical of the carbon tax, B.C. and Manitoba are considering joining western US states in a new cap-and-trade system - so a regulatory patchwork looks likely. As in the US recently, though, the question is no longer whether the Canadian government should intervene to raise fossil fuel costs, but how.

Anna Barnett

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Royal Society to fund carbon capture and renewables ventures

In the race to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, the Royal Society now plans to back promising new technology with venture capital as well as intellectual clout. The Society announced Thursday it will sink its first-ever investment fund into businesses developing carbon capture and renewable energy, along with water purification and other world-saving innovations (Financial Times).

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Upcoming: George Monbiot talks climate on Second Life

Cafe1.jpgThis Thursday, take-no-prisoners environmental writer George Monbiot of The Guardian steps up to the podium at Second Nature, Nature's archipelago in the virtual world of Second Life, to give a talk on climate change.

monbiot.jpgIn his 2006 book Heat: How We Can Stop the Planet Burning, Monbiot argued for 90% emissions cuts by 2030 to stop dangerous climate change. With the UK and other governments struggling toward a consensus that 80% cuts must be made by 2050, we'll see how he feels about the planet's current prospects.

Monbiot speaks at 17:00 GDT (12:00 EDT). Second Life avatars can attend here.

Anna Barnett

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Climate Podcast: episode three

headphones.JPGOur latest Climate Podcast is out today, with interviews exploring this month's hot climate stories. In episode three, we find out:

-How the US government tried to silence climate scientist James Hansen

-What’s behind the recent backlash against biofuels

-How the Antarctic is losing ice at an unprecedented rate

-And author Gabrielle Walker tells us why we're nearing the last chance saloon on an international climate change deal

You can tune in here, and suscribe to the podcast RSS feed to stay on top of future episodes.

Anna Barnett

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Weathering climate change

weathering.jpgA novel approach to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere based on the Earth's natural weathering process, which Olive Heffernan reported on in November, is getting more attention.

John Shepherd discusses the technique, developed by graduate student Kurt Zen House and colleagues, in a Journal Club column in Nature today, concluding:

The scheme House et al. outline looks promising if it were operated using a solar or geothermal electricity source near a supply of basic rocks. A mid-ocean volcanic island would be good. And the environmental consequences of the scheme's discharges should be less severe than those of the ocean acidification that humans are already causing.

A simple geoengineering solution to soak up carbon dioxide without catastrophic side effects should raise interest, and it has. But Shepherd says that what geoengineering ideas need now, and haven't got, is seed funding for pilot projects. "None of the research councils has so far felt that it's their patch," says Shepherd, but "DEFRA are beginning to take an interest, and both the Tyndall Centre and the Royal Society are now contemplating meetings or studies on geoengineering, so maybe things will hot up a bit sometime soon."

Anna Barnett

Photo: Getty

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"Largest teach-in ever" focuses US on climate change

we get it.jpgIn what was billed as the largest teach-in ever, over 1,500 universities, colleges, schools, and community organizations across the US held seminars and events on climate change yesterday.

Organized by student volunteers and driven by a project called Focus the Nation, professors of science, economics, engineering and anthropology - among other disciplines - spoke on panels and brought their classes to the discussions. Meanwhile, students staged information fairs and awareness-raising stunts: in Missouri, they stacked up 20 tons of coal to create a 3D graphic of campus energy use, and in Vermont, the fictional protagonist of a one-woman show promoted a boycott on sex as an effective focusing strategy (Focus the Nation, Christian Science Monitor).

I talked to a few of the scientists involved about how the events went at their universities. Ecologist Tom Sherry of Tulane University in New Orleans was brimming with excitement about the sessions there, which were attended by a total of about 750 students and faculty and included a Q&A that carried on for a lively two hours.

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EU climate plan "hits the sweet spot"?

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The European Commission's draft blueprint for tackling climate change, announced January 23rd, is praised in today's Nature editorial for hitting "the sweet spot" between politically pragmatic but shortsighted proposals and implausably idealistic ones. Other groups - idealists and pragmatists alike - have reacted differently.

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Geoscience essays for International Year of Planet Earth

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Historian Will Durant ... is said to have cautioned: "Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice."

This warning, re-broadcast in an essay by eminent public scientist Frank Press, wraps up an excellent special supplement on Earth science in this week's Nature. In honor of the International Year of Planet Earth, the supplement features more than a dozen in-depth commentaries on current topics in geoscience, almost all looking warily toward past, present and future climate change (with or without notice).

As an overview of several leading-edge climate science issues, it's well worth a look - and the thoughtful opening article on historical drivers of geoscientific progress is also not to be missed. Act now, because the entire supplement is currently free to access.

Anna Barnett

Photo: NASA

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Making biofuels sustainable

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The Royal Society today released a report on the future of biofuels, which have recently been the subject of intense debate, as Kurt Kleiner reported in Nature Reports Climate Change last month. New UK rules to begin this April require transport fuel suppliers to include a small percentage of 'renewable fuel' in their fuel sales, working up to 5% by 2010. But according to the Royal Society report, this policy intiative (called the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation or RTFO) is not guaranteed to meet its climate-preserving goals. When it comes to lowering greenhouse gas emissions, the report points out, there are biofuels and biofuels. That is, while some plant fuel sources promise as much as 80% greenhouse gas savings over fossil fuels, it's also possible to keep trashing the planet by using unsustainable methods to produce and supply renewable fuels. Unless the UK sets emissions targets per se in its fuel policy, warns the report, the new UK rules and the EU Biofuels Directive that they reflect "will do more for economic development and energy security than combating climate change".


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Technology lessens Americans' power hunger

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Did you resolve to use less energy for your home appliances in 2008? In a study released yesterday, a lab within the the US Department of Energy found that lots of Americans (or at least lots of Pacific Northwesterners) want to do the same - and given more information, tools, and sophisticated market incentives, they'll actually do it. To the tune of 15% less peak power use and 10% lower household electric bills.

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BBC interview on Second Life climate talks

Cafe1.jpg From the BBC radio show Digital Planet:

Bali has not been the only island to host a climate change conference recently.

The science journal Nature has purchased a little archipelago of islands in Second Life called Second Nature.

While participants at the United Nations Climate Change conference in Bali have been agreeing on a roadmap to replace the Kyoto protocol, climate experts – or their representational avatars – have been hosting talks and discussions on one of the Second Nature islands.

Timo Hannay, publishing director at Nature, tells Digital Planet how they went about achieving this series of virtual talks.

The Digital Planet podcast episode with the interview is worth a listen, especially if you're wondering how a conference in Second Life's virtual world stacks up against one in the real word (or First Life, as it's known to enthusiasts) - or against a traditional webcast.

The Second Nature climate conference was announced on CF here; Second Life avatars can visit Second Nature here.

Anna Barnett

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International roaming of the UK carbon footprint

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According to the Times and the Guardian, a new study led by economist Deiter Helm of Oxford finds that the UK's greenhouse gas emissions have actually risen 19% above 1990 levels, not fallen 15% as officially reported to the UN. The discrepancy comes from the official figures' neglect of emissions from aviation, shipping, overseas trade and tourism, and undermines Britain's image as a world leader in greening its economy.

The study itself (PDF), though, doesn't so much expose hypocrisy as highlight a tough methodological question: should we measure greenhouse gas produced within each country, or should we look at fossil fuel consumption? The UNFCCC required the UK to report only greenhouse gasses emitted within its borders, which have decreased in part because domestic manufacturing in the UK has given way to more imports. The finding of a 19% emissions rise comes from flipping that viewpoint to count emissions associated with goods consumed in the UK, no matter where they are manufactured, as well as the impacts of international aviation and shipping and of UK citizens travelling abroad. Call it international roaming of the country's carbon footprint.

The fact that emissions from international aviation and shipping aren't being counted in anybody's carbon budget at the moment is clearly a problem, and one that may not go away anytime soon -- the aviation industry has vowed to fight against joining the EU carbon-trading scheme.

And if British consumers are effectively outsourcing their greenhouse gas production by buying iPods made in China, where 'production' emissions have been rising, it does the planet no good. Unfortunately, the study takes the tactic of thinking globally but blaming locally. To really understand what consumption-based emissions numbers imply about how to grow a low-carbon economy, don't we need to see the equivalent figures from China - and everywhere else?

Photo: Getty

Anna Barnett

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Sticker-shocked Rudd backpedals on emissions cuts

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Kevin Rudd, the Australian prime minister who won his recent election on a green platform (Nature News - subscription required) and signed Australia onto the Kyoto Protocol as his first act in office, now refuses to support a proposed 25-40% cut on 1990 emission levels by 2020. The worst part: he rejected the cut days after an Australian delegate to the UN climate conference in Bali promised support for it (Herald Sun).

What's holding up Rudd's vision of a greener Australia? A bad case of sticker shock -- specifically, fear of spiking electricity prices. According to the Herald Sun, the Energy Supply Association of Australia has reported that cutting 30% of 2000 emissions levels by 2030 would raise power costs by 30%, and energy industry representatives are telling Rudd that a faster cut would be much more expensive because of current technological obstacles. So it turns out that Rudd is happy to agree to deep long-term cuts whose price tag is harder to predict, but he won't ask Australians to get out their checkbooks in the next few years. For that, he says, he'll need more economic advice.

A BBC survey (PDF) this year found that worldwide, "most people say they are ready to make personal sacrifices – including paying more for their energy – to help address climate change". A whopping 81% of Australians agreed that prices needed to rise -- a majority second to none in the developed world. But like Rudd's long-term emissions pledge, the poll didn't mention any specific price.

How high an electric bill would you pay - and insist that neighbors and businesses pay - to meet the 2020 target?

Anna Barnett

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Earth monitoring: Cinderella science

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This year marks not only the release of a clarion IPCC report and the convening of an enormous UN climate conference, but also the 50th anniversary of the Keeling curve -- the longest continuous recording of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, revealing a gradually rising carbon dioxide profile that helped trigger early concern about global warming. As part of this week's Earth Observation special (subscription required), Nature has a commentary by Euan Nisbet, atmospheric scientist at Royal Holloway, on the Keeling curve -- which "ranks very high indeed among the achievements of twentieth-century science", he says -- and similar studies in the field of Earth monitoring. Nisbet writes:

Monitoring is science's Cinderella, unloved and poorly paid. Sustaining a long-term, ground-based programme that demands high analytical standards remains challenging. Funding agencies are seduced either by 'pure' notions of basic science as hypothesis-testing, or by the satanic mills of commercial reward. Neither motive fosters 'dull' monitoring because meeting severe analytical demands is not seen as a worthwhile investment. At one stage, Keeling was ordered to guarantee two discoveries per year and today, modern research has become a planned journey through set 'milestones' to deliverable destinations.

What do you think -- how important is this 'Cinderella science' to ongoing climate research and policy, and how could we secure reliable long-term support?

Image credit: Global Warming Art

Anna Barnett

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Second Life climate talks on Second Nature - no air travel required

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Starting today, Second Nature -- the Second Life space for all things Nature -- hosts a series of climate change talks to coincide with the UN conference in Bali. Avatars can attend with a carbon-clean conscience.

Continue reading "Second Life climate talks on Second Nature - no air travel required" »

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Tropics expanding fast

ngeo.2007.38-f1Signs of a very different 21st-century climate are already showing up, and not just in the melting arctic. A new review in Nature Geoscience highlights reports that the boundaries of the tropics, defined by temperature, rainfall, wind, and ozone patterns, have shifted poleward by at least 2 degrees latitude in the last 25 years. According to climate models, that's as far as the tropical belt was supposed to creep by the end of this century. Five different methods used to measure the tropics all show more or less breakneck rates of expansion -- one gives as much as 4.8 degrees in 25 years.

Continue reading "Tropics expanding fast " »

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Nature News special on Bali

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If you're looking for some background on the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, Nature News has a nice roundup (subscription required). They've put together their coverage of the IPCC reports released over the past year, plus related stories stretching back to 1990 and some recent commentaries. Any news stories they report from the meeting will go up on the same page. The Nature Reports Climate Change archive also has lots on the IPCC and the Bali conference.

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Climate podcast: episode 1

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Nature Reports Climate Change rolls out its podcast today, with editor Olive Heffernan interviewing the experts behind our key stories. In this first episode:

- Tim Lenton has more to say about his Commentary on tipping points for dangerous climate change

- IPCC scientists Stefan Rahmstorf, Michael Oppenheimer and Gavin Schmidt opine on where the IPCC should turn now, having released its Fourth Assessment synthesis report last week

- journalist Emma Marris explains how mountain-dwelling species are being killed off by the 'escalator effect'

- speculation on the 'son of Kyoto' to be conceived at next month's UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, from Eliot Morley of Globe International, Nick Mabey of e3g and Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Starting next week, Climate Feedback will have Olive Heffernan blogging from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, so tune in to find out whether the delegates are standing united against climate change threats or mired in debate over which policies are fair to whom -- or both. And keep an eye out (or an RSS feed subscribed) for next month's podcast, which will feature interviews and discussion direct from the floor of the UN conference.

Anna Barnett

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Stern, Lomborg and Yohe on the cost of climate change

How expensive is climate change, what's the cost of stopping it, and should we pay now or pay later? Scientific American gets a three-sided look at these questions in side-by-side interviews with Nicholas Stern, Bjorn Lomborg and Gary Yohe.

Stern and Yohe push raising the price of carbon emissions via caps and taxes, respectively, as insurance to ward off big future risks, with Lomborg taking the contrarian view that we shouldn't mitigate until renewable energy is cheaper -- and shrugging off the risks. (Lomborg thinks that other problems like HIV/AIDS and malaria need money more immediately, an argument Olive Heffernan took on in NRCC's editorial last month.) Interesting discussions of the values assigned to human lives in the present vs. future (Stern, Lomborg), and to lives threatened by asbestos vs. temperature rise, also ensue.

Anna Barnett

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Early summer starves polar bears

Today Nature News reports on new evidence that retreat of sea ice in the Hudson Bay is starving polar bears to death by shortening their hunting season.

The cubs and the oldest bears, specifically, are more likely to die in years with early ice breakup. Polar bears hunt seal pups in the early spring, and if the ice breaks early the youngest and oldest bears can't catch enough pups to last them through the summer.

The US Geological Survey already warned recently that at least two-thirds of polar bears could die from ice melt in the next 50 years, as Oliver Morton discussed in this post. But the direct evidence that ice breakup is killing young and old bears is the first available. Starving polar bear cubs will probably get a high profile in appeals to put the polar bear on the US Endangered Species List next year.

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Were salmon-killing jellyfish produced by global warming?

Pelagia_noctilucaEDIT.jpgThe appearance of a massive swarm of jellyfish, and their subsequent decimation of an Irish salmon farm, are this week being blamed on global warming.

Stock worth £1million were suffocated in their cages by the swarm, which is estimated to have covered 25 square kilometres of sea and been up to 10 metres thick. The fish farm's director said “It was unprecedented, absolutely amazing. The sea was red with these jelly fish and there was nothing we could do about, it, absolutely nothing.” says Northern Salmon Company managing director, John Russell (Telegraph). The full story is on The Great Beyond.

This isn't the first time climate change has been linked to jellyfish outbreaks. Last summer, the same jellyfish (Pelagia notiluca) was spotted in unusually high concentrations in the Mediterranean, again prompting speculation about impacts of sea temperature rise (New Scientist). Reuters reported that a volunteer campaign had removed eight tons of jellyfish from the Spanish coastline. Both reports mention temperature and decline in predators as causes.

A recent study linked increasing populations of jellyfish in the North Sea to climate change and predicted that more jellyfish would appear over the next 100 years.

If the two events are truly linked the UK's salmon industry may have to be added to the list of climate change victims.

Image via Wikipedia


Daniel Cressey and Anna Barnett

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