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Climate predictions vs. observations

In a Science paper last year (subscription required), Rahmstorf et al. pointed to 2001-2006 measurements of global temperature at the top end of the IPCC’s 2001 projections – and global sea level rise well beyond the range predicted in 2001 – as evidence that “the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.” Today in a letter to Nature Geoscience (subscription required), Roger Pielke, Jr, questions whether models from that 2001 generation improve on the predictive power of their forbears. 

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