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Large buildup of strain in the San Andreas fault makes quake imminent.
Southern California could be in line for a serious quake along the infamous San Andreas fault, seismologists have found. New measurements suggest that the region close to Los Angeles, the traditional earthquake location in Hollywood disaster movies, could feel the effects of a real-life tremor within the next few years.
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Posted by on June 21, 2006
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Comments
I have a feeling that, this super-earthquake is going to happen within months rather then years. Mr. Fialko's observations are very critical at present time.
Posted by: Andrew Migut | June 21, 2006 07:36 PM
How do you think this would affect the state of Nevada?
Posted by: sharon morneau | June 21, 2006 09:08 PM
Does local geology make any difference? I have heard that my town, Fontana, sits on something called the "Fontana Trend," which seems keep local earthquakes small and blunt the effect of larger, more distant quakes. Well, regardless, it is time to put up a serious survival kit, isn't it?
Posted by: Frances Wright-McCalmont | June 22, 2006 04:57 AM
well, for sure the earthquake will happen as it is predicted by bible prophecy . we are nearing the time of the end when everybody will have to make a decision between serving god on the right day or going along with the stream. this should be a wake up call for all. this«ngs are going to be happening more frequent as Jesus second coming is drawing closer.
Posted by: monica | June 22, 2006 02:16 PM
To which extent are the buildings protected from earthquakes of such scale?I'll spend this fall in San Fransisco and i'm a bit worried by the study..
Posted by: j.tsiakalos | June 22, 2006 03:31 PM
The Northern San Andreas Fault goes offshore in Humboldt County is also DUE FOR A BIG ONE, which historically has occured every 300 years. The last one caused a tsumani to hit Japan, enabling the time and location of the earthquake to established.
There is a connection, the fault!
Posted by: Lorna Nys | June 22, 2006 03:31 PM
The bible didn't predict any single earthquake. Additionally, there's no basis for any kind of destiny prognostication systems, either in the past or in the future. The words in a book cobbled together from the 'approved' list of prophets & historians, discarding the texts of other 'non-approved' historians, clearly cannot be taken as truth in any context, having been assembled in such a way as to present only a certain viewpoint to the target audience in an attempt to brainwash and rewrite history. This may be fine for blind faith followers such as yourself, monica, but has no relevance in a scientific discussion of geological phenomena such as earthquakes.
Posted by: Justin | June 22, 2006 03:33 PM
Good reply Justin. I'm a bit concerned that this "new" news will cause a lot of Chicken Littles. Firstly, the Earth is always in transition. Always has been, always will be. Weather patterns, water, and food availability will always be changing. Secondly, we should not not forget that we survive on a planet that is alive. Things that are alive, move; shift. Believe what you may Monica, just give it a thought. Andrew, feelings and science are at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Posted by: Melanie | June 22, 2006 04:08 PM
Is there better precision about the location of the 'southern San Andreas fault?'. Would that be east of Riverside, or west into the desert cities.
Posted by: Dave | June 22, 2006 06:16 PM
somtimes a greater magnitude eathquake can fool us in shakeing very slowly so we dont feel it barely shakeing i hope this super tipe of quake will take the gradual stress releaf than the violant shakeing predicted remmember how the san anderas has always been graduly north by south any one who want to contact me im at amtrk@netzero.net
Posted by: roylee | June 22, 2006 08:09 PM
There are some earthquake trackers who believe that variables such as the gravitational pull of a full/blue moon has direct bearing on "land tides" much like sea tides. When the pull is strongest, the land plates are in their weakest state and are much more apt to grind past eachother in the form of large earthquakes. In particular, I've been watching this website: http://www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=53&Itemid=2
How much truth does this hold?
Posted by: Jessica | June 22, 2006 08:31 PM
I live in Palm Desert, Ca. south of San Andreas fault, I expect it sooner then we all think. I feel that Mr. Fialko's observation are on the button.
Posted by: Jean | June 22, 2006 09:19 PM
Oooh, I live in Palm Springs and this is definitely not news I want to hear! Reality is that we will have more earthquakes to come. Don't we all wish we lived in "danger-free" zones!!?!?!
Posted by: Victoria | June 22, 2006 09:31 PM
Ok,so what would you recommend either get the hell out off LA or stay calm get well prepaired and dont panic because as long you be prepaired well you should'nt get in to much trouble ?
My wife and me we lived for almost 4 years in Los Angeles we inted to go back next year but now i'm concerned.
What should we do ?
Wolfgang
Posted by: Wolfgang | June 22, 2006 10:13 PM
This website has good information on the fault's activity and location, as well as maps: http://www.data.scec.org/fault_index/sanandre.html
Although the San Andreas is one of the largest, pretty much anyone who lives in Southern California is on top of or very near a potentially active fault. The entire state has a high risk of earthquakes, and because quakes are unpredictable and seismologists are discovering new faults literally every day, there's no way to say that one area is much better to live in than another.
Incidentally, Lorna: the cascadia quake that caused tsunamis in Japan in 1700 was on a subduction fault between the Juan de Fuca plate and the North American plate - not the San Andreas (which is a strike-slip fault). It IS thought to have a recurrance interval of about 300-500 years, but we can't know enough about it to ever say that it's "due" for a quake. That said, it COULD happen tomorrow. But probably, it will be another couple hundred years until we see another megathrust quake in the Pacific Northwest.
Posted by: Katherine Thompson | June 23, 2006 04:06 PM
1.Why is the Katrina Method being applied to the oncoming LA earthquake? Why not have a comprehensive analysis of vulnerabilities by Berkeley earthquake engineers, who could also accept expertise from Japan or Germany, before the disaster? 2.Why not give absolute authority to a set of real experts to condemn any structure or practice and require that what they condemn be demolished or forbidden? 3.Why not spend as much in mitigation as is expected in damages? If you think there will be a $200 billion earthquake in L.A., spend at least that much to prepare, so as to maximize saved lives. Disaster preparations are often on a far different scale than the disasters, so they cannot be really effective. 4.Why have the obvious steps often not been taken? For example, to prepare for an earthquake in Vancouver, I think that it would be wise for everyone to know that they could go to the local Safeway or Shoppers Drug Mart for food, water, or medication at sites that would be protected against looters by police and military living near them. Automatically in a big quake governments would take over all inventory and later fully compensate Safeway. So far as I am aware, the obvious things either do not get done in Canada, or the communications about them are wretched. 5.Why are universities often so indifferent to their responsibilities in disaster preparedness leadership? Clearly, in this case fine analytical work was done, but in the main universities are often far too slow and lazy. Clayton Burns Ph.D. Vancouver claytonburns@gmail.com
Posted by: Clayton Burns | June 23, 2006 06:32 PM
Could someone please clarify or comment on the use of the word "strain" in this article. So far as I know, strain (a change in dimensions, a deformation) is a consequence of stress (a force) being applied to the elastic rock material. I would have thought that increasing strain is a good thing since it relieves the stress. It seems to me that a build up of stress is the danger we should be concerned about.
Posted by: Maxim Bohlmann | June 29, 2006 06:28 PM
When exactly is it going to happen?
Posted by: Areli | September 22, 2006 12:36 AM
Earthquake Prediction (Forecast of Time) A New Approach
Prabhakar Kumar Awasthi*
H.N.Singh**
Department of Geography*
Department of Physics**
R.S.S. (P.G.) College, Pilakhuwa,
Ghaziabad (U.P.), India.
(E-Mail- awasthi_pra@yahoo.com)
pawasthi@solar.Stanford.EDU
Abstract
In this paper an attempt has been made for the forecast of time of earthquakes measuring on Richter scale 6 and above, on the Globe. For this purpose data of USGS and IMD have been used for earthquakes and for the crossing time of the Sun on a particular place, respectively. To avoid global differences in time, calculations are made according to coordinated Universal Time (UTC) so the results may be useful for the globe. A successful earthquake prediction of an individual Earthquake includes Date (Time), Place and its Magnitude, so here the emphasis have been given on its Date (Time), Magnitude and Methodology, opening a new avenue in this field. So we can simply say that whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac at Ujjain (India) then after 12 to 36 hours or after 60 to 90 Hours Possibility of a major significant Earthquake on the Globe is Maximum.
Earthquake Prediction (Forecast of Time) A New Approach
Prabhakar Kumar Awasthi*
H.N.Singh**
We have observed so many Earthquakes in last years. It inspired me to think in a different way. So we have made some rules regarding the prediction of Dates of significant Earthquakes. On this basis one can predict the date of significant Earthquakes on the Globe. It should be remembered that these are only the rules, not the principles. Here we will talk about only one rule. This rule is related to the Sun.
Rule-
Whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac then on the same day the date of the earthquake can be predicted if earthquake does not occur on the same day then add two day more. It means the earthquake will occur on the third day including the date of crossing the sign of zodiac by the Sun.
Example-
On January 14,1995 the Sun had crossed the 9th sign which was Sagittarius and it came to the 10th sign which was Capricorn. On this basis we have decided that the earthquake will occur on January 14,1995, the same day. If it will not occur on January 14, 1995 then I will add two days more. It means 14 +2 =16 or third day including the date of crossing the sign. It also means January 16, 1995. So we were sure that the earthquake will occur either on January 14,1995 or on January 16,1995.According to the rule, on January 16,1995 a strong Earthquake hit Japan near the south coast of western Honshu. It was located on 34.06-degree north and 135.00 degree east. About 5502 persons lost their lives. Magnitude of this earthquake was 6.9. On the basis of this rule we have predicted so many dates of significant earthquakes, which later on proved to be true. A few instances are given below-
15-06-1999 Mexico Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 15-06-1999. It crossed from 2nd sign (Taurus) to 3rd sign (Gemini). Earthquake hit the Mexico on the same day.
17-08-1999 Turkey Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 17-08-1999. It crossed from 4th sign (Cancer) to 5th sign (Leo). Earthquake hit the Turkey on the same day.
17-10-1999 California Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 17-10-1999. It crossed from 6th sign (Virgo) to 7th sign (Libra). Earthquake hit the California on the same day.
17-11-2000 New Britain Region Earthquake - The Sun crossed the sign on 15-11-2000. It crossed from 7th sign (Libra) to 8th sign (Scorpio). Earthquake hit the New Britain Region on the same day.
13-01-2001 El Salvador Earthquake - The Sun crossed the sign on 13-01-2001. It crossed from 9th sign (Sagittarius) to 10th sign (Capricorn). Earthquake hit the El Salvador on the same day.
Exception to the rule – Sometimes the dates of earthquake may vary. This variation may be of +- one day. We believe that this is due to influence of other planets.
18-06-2000 South Indian Ocean Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 14-06-2000. It crossed from 2nd sign (Taurus) to 3rd sign (Gemini). Earthquake hit south Indian Ocean on 18-06-2000. But according to the rule it should be either on the 14-06-2000 (same day) or on 16-06-2000 (third day). According to the exception it should be one day sooner or later but here the delay was of five days. So in this instance the rule of the Sun does not looks appropriate. It requires another rule and we did so but we are not discussing it here.
Keeping all the things in mind in this paper we have emphasized only on the date (Time) so selecting only one parameter according to the above rule, we have taken the data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the transition of the Sun in different Zodiac signs. This data is based on central place Ujjain. Same as IMD for the Earthquakes, data of United State Geological Survey (USGS) have been taken to avoid clashes in time. Our firm belief is that: “ The Space is the key of a successful Earthquake Prediction.” The Planets are embedded in space. We can use these planets in the two ways –
As a Source of its triggering and
As an Instrument.
Here we have used the Sun as an instrument. For the analysis, data of the earthquakes have been taken from April 1993 up to December 2005. Our Findings are as follows-
Number of Earthquakes on the Globe from the crossing of the Sun in Zodiac signs (From April 1993 up to December 2005) selecting only first one earthquake each day.
Before one day Same Day Second Day Third Day Fourth Day
Total
Magnitude -7
And above 7 9 10 2 10
Total
Magnitude –
6 to 7 45 41 47 45 50
Number of Earthquakes (From April 1993 up to December 2005) Magnitude 6 and above at the interval of 6 hours selecting only first one Earthquake each day.
One Day Before Same Day Second Day Third Day Fourth Day
A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D
15 18 07 12 15 09 16 10 19 16 04 17 13 08 15 11 17 14 21 08
------- * ----------- * ------------------- * --------- * ------------------------ *
-24-12 -6 + 6 +12 +36 +42 +54 +60 +90
When we make cluster It is found that between –24 to –12 hours, -6 to +6 hours, +42 to + 56 hours and between +60 to + 90 hours number of Earthquakes are Maximum.
While between – 12 to –6 hours, +6 to +12 hours, + 54 to +60 hours and +90 to + 96 hours number of Earthquakes are Minimum.
On the Same Day number of Earthquake is Maximum between 12 to18 hours.
On the Second Day number of earthquake is Maximum between 0 to 6 hours.
On the Third Day number of earthquake is Maximum between 12 to 18 hours.
On the fourth day number of earthquake is Maximum between 12 to 18 hours.
Special feature is that on the second day number of earthquake is Minimum between 12 to 18 hours. A nice gap that need a further study of planetary influence why it is so?
The most important thing is that our observations (without proper Data) through which we have made our rules are similar with the observation (with proper Data) because here we clearly find a gap of 12 hours.
When the Next Earthquake (According to the Sun) -
Whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac at Ujjain (India) then after 12 to 36 hours or
after 60 to 90 Hours Possibility of a major significant Earthquake on the Globe is
Maximum.
Conclusion-
On the basis of this method any person can take a view that this date is very sensitive for an earthquake but for the perfection more work is required in this direction. Same as the Sun we can calculate other planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Rahu, Ketu, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto and Moon where the dates (Time) are similar there we can say that we are closer towards perfection.
Posted by: Prabhakar Awasthi | October 28, 2006 12:39 PM
I live in Vancouver, Canada and i heard it will hit us pretty hard where lions gate bridge can collapse.
Posted by: Tiffany | February 9, 2007 07:29 AM
I think that March 7, 2007 could be the Big Quake of Los Angeles.
It's seven days after February 28 which was a significant DAY back in 1963.
It's caught up with us again.
As it was in the days of Noah...seven days after that CLOUD SIGN in the SKY, the Rain fell...destruction and Tribulation.
Posted by: Ann C. | March 1, 2007 09:21 PM
March 27 is the Big Quake Day. But I'll be gone by then.
Posted by: ZULU | March 13, 2007 07:20 AM
Tomorrow on April the 15th Los Angeles will slide into the ocean.
But who would believe me anyway?
Nobody.
So I can't warn anyone.
Posted by: GZO | April 15, 2007 03:15 AM
I think the earthquake will come but hope not to come. I am from Nepal and it is very dangerous there. I think i'll die but no matters if i die after i purpose a girl who i love from many years.BUDDHA and JESUS anr my comments
Posted by: Anamol Rajbhandari | June 12, 2007 12:45 AM
Quit 'lying' and 'patronizing' yourself people(fools) of L.A. I was here during the quake of 94' - YOU WERE BROUGHT-TO-YOUR-KNEES. So where will you stand when the 'real' one hits? Quit acting like your 'special' and its NOT SUPPOSE TO HAPPEN TO YOU. These people here in L.A. are so stupid, the REALLY DO beleive its not going to happen. The LAST place in the WORLD you would want to be in is L.A. Because the sheer ignorance of these people, will cause even more death(s)
Posted by: Marvin Klein | July 24, 2007 10:12 PM
I heard the san andreas fault is about to callaspe and drown all of california.including where i live RIVERSIDE> many pple say there is an angle of God going around and warning his pple that the end is near. we all need to turn to christ he'll be here soon!!!!!!pple say in september to beginning of oct.
Posted by: daiana | August 9, 2007 06:31 AM
I think that there will be a world wide earthquake and i believe that the end is near,but i just hate reading people's theorys. It's annoying to see all these dates that the earthquake "will come". No one knows for sure,so why waste time guessing? I mean,we've got March 1st, march 27th and april 15th 2007. It's November 2007 and there's no BIG quake. I'm just happy i don't live in california. where i live,we don't get earthquakes.My state hasn't had an earthquake since 1994.
Posted by: Katty A. | November 24, 2007 02:36 AM
Does anyone else have guess as to when the BIG earthquake will come?
I changed my mind about the whole why waste time guessing thing.I guess that if you would take the time to do reaserch then go ahead and share your ideas. I thought about what I wrote before and realized that everyone is posting comments becasue they find in interest to this, so we should encourage eachother. What I really mean to say, is if you have something to tell us then have some evidence to show people why they should read what you wrote down and why they can see it in a different perspective.I'm very interested in Earth Science and reading what others think and know is a great way to expand your mind.
Posted by: Katty A. | November 26, 2007 11:07 PM