AGU: The outlook for the Arctic
News from the Arctic just continues to get worse. A fair number of presentations here have been dealing with the dire 2007 conditions for sea ice and the Greenland ice sheet.
First up, Greenland. Last summer, more ice melted atop Greenland than ever before measured, adding to a consistent downward trend of some 135 gigatons of ice disappearing per year. Marco Tedesco, of the Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, told the meeting that surface temperatures in Greenland were four to six degrees Celsius warmer than usual this summer, which helped accelerate melting, particularly at high latitudes.
The situation is even more precarious for sea ice. A couple of researchers here have been tossing around dates like 2012 or 2014 for estimates of when the Arctic might be completely ice-free in summer. While these sorts of numbers are pretty arm-waving at the moment (numbers like 2040 were previously considered to be aggressive), there’s little reason to think the situation will get better in the next couple of years. Mark Serreze, of the University of Colorado, spent a keynote lecture on Tuesday showing images of Arctic ice shrinking like a snowman left out too long in the sun. In September of this year, sea ice covered just 4.2 million square kilometers - by far the lowest record ever.
And the ice isn’t only shrinking in extent – it’s also thinning. Don Perovich, of a US army cold regions and research laboratory in New Hampshire, reported on a single but extraordinary ice buoy in the Beaufort Sea. In June the buoy measured sea ice at that location as 3.3 metres thick – “really a healthy piece of ice,” as he put it. But by the end of the summer, 70 centimetres had melted off the top – and 2.2 metres (yes, metres) off the bottom.
When you see those dramatic maps of the Arctic ice extent shrinking over time, don’t forget that it’s also thinning – a complicating factor that may just make things worse in summers to come.
Comments
The figure of 2013 is coming out of a model by a team that apparently has the reputation for being cutting edge, but they hadn't actually incorporated 2007 into their calculations.
Please see:
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Given the various feedbacks, what would be realistic at this point? And given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice?
Posted by: Timothy Chase | December 15, 2007 04:17 PM
Will this effect fresh water for farming?
Posted by: Frank Bennett | January 2, 2008 10:43 AM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice?
Posted by: greg | January 2, 2008 09:36 PM
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski said:
"One impact is that if we remove the sea ice, which is a very reflective ice cover in the high northern latitudes, we'll be observing much more solar radiation into the ocean and the feedback from the warmer ocean," he said.
"The ocean will expand so we may see some associated increase of sea level due to the warmer ocean in the Arctic.
and
"The second important thing to keep in mind is that if we melt all this ice that is currently out there in the Arctic, every summer we will be exporting a lot of fresh water, much more than currently, into the North Atlantic.
"And this fresh water export from the Arctic may affect the ocean circulation, which in turn can effect regional or global climate."
i singing some song at last days:
sad but true (metallica)
Posted by: geographer | January 7, 2008 02:50 AM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice ?
Posted by: program indir | January 8, 2008 08:54 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Posted by: oyun | January 10, 2008 11:27 AM
When you see those dramatic maps of the Arctic ice extent shrinking over time, don’t forget that it’s also thinning – a complicating factor that may just make things worse in summers to come.
oyun
Posted by: david | March 12, 2008 03:21 PM
And the ice isn’t only shrinking in extent – it’s also thinning. Don Perovich, of a US army cold regions and research laboratory in New reported on a single but Hampshire, extraordinary ice buoy in the Beaufort Sea. In June the buoy measured sea ice at that location as 3.3 metres thick – “really a healthy piece of ice,” as he put it. But by the end of the summer
oyun
Posted by: david | March 12, 2008 03:23 PM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice ?
Posted by: sohbetim | April 11, 2008 11:45 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Oyun
Posted by: Oyun | July 26, 2008 07:29 AM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice ?
Posted by: oyun | August 7, 2008 04:38 AM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice ?
Posted by: dantel örnekleri | September 17, 2008 03:41 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below
Posted by: oyun | September 20, 2008 01:05 AM
When you see those dramatic maps of the Arctic ice extent shrinking over time, don’t forget that it’s also thinning – a complicating factor that may just make things worse in summers to come.
Posted by: Oyun | September 25, 2008 12:57 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Posted by: Oyunlar | September 30, 2008 03:00 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below
Posted by: dantel modelleri | November 4, 2008 03:02 PM
For those of you thinking that if they implement this it will eliminate some of the waiting and lines…
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice ?
Posted by: Estetik | November 23, 2008 01:38 AM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice ?...
dinle
dinle
Posted by: dinle | November 23, 2008 07:29 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Posted by: oyun | December 1, 2008 06:13 PM
In June the buoy measured sea ice at that location as 3.3 metres thick – “really a healthy piece of ice,” as he put it. But by the end of the summer
Posted by: araba oyunlar | December 14, 2008 01:15 PM
They argue that earlier analyses underestimate the strength of the feedbacks due to the granularity of their analyses, particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Posted by: oyun oyna | January 31, 2009 09:02 PM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice?
me too
Posted by: oyunlar | February 13, 2009 04:00 PM
given the interdependence of various processes within the climate system that is implied by those feedbacks, what will be the consequences for the climate system of an Arctic Sea without sea ice?
Posted by: oyunlar | February 17, 2009 10:57 AM
particularly with respect to ocean advection carrying warm water from the lower altitudes and melting the sea ice from below.
Posted by: kız oyunları | February 26, 2009 11:10 PM
Also, I too am getting the warning that yutaka is along with a few other similar ones about “Group”, “Link”, “Entry”, etc. It doesn’t seem to be breaking anything, just throwing a warning.
Posted by: burun estetiği | March 26, 2009 01:41 AM
When you see those dramatic maps of the Arctic ice extent shrinking over time, don’t forget that it’s also thinning – a complicating factor that may just make things worse in summers to come.
Posted by: Oyun | March 29, 2009 10:00 PM
a complicating factor that may just make things worse in summers to come.
Posted by: çocuk oyunları | April 3, 2009 03:05 PM
due to climate change and global warming will continue to melt sea ice case, the greatest hope we can prevent global warming.
Posted by: Estetik | April 8, 2009 10:35 AM