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September 17, 2009

IAEA: License to ill(icitly traffic nuclear material)

Yesterday the press got a briefing from the the team running the International Atomic Energy Agency's Illicit Trafficking Database. The database was officially established in 1995 and is one of the few publicly available sources of information on nuclear smuggling. 108 countries voluntarily deposit information about lost, missing or stolen radiological material in the database. They do so on condition of anonymity, so the IAEA won't say too much about where any given incidents occur. However, they do give aggrigate numbers which are in and of themselves reasonably interesting.

The scariest of these numbers has to do with what they not-so-euphemistically call “unauthorized possessions” of nuclear materials—basically attempts by unsavory characters to sell nuclear material of one kind or another on the black market. Between 1993 and 2008 the agency recorded 333 incidents, 16 of which took place last year. Since the mid-1990s, the number of reported incidents has been relatively constant, says Viacheslav Turkin, a nuclear security officer with the agency.

Next on the list were incidents theft of lost materials. These were mainly smaller, portable sources used for commercial surveying or medical purposes. The agency has recorded a total of 463 cases in which these materials disappeared over the past decade-and-a-half. Worryingly only 65% of them have been reported as recovered (although Turkin notes that some countries may not have bothered to notify the IAEA about recovered sources).

Finally came the infamous “orphan sources”, radioactive materials that are lost and forgotten. The number of these sources has shot up in recent years to a grand total of 754, probably as a result of better reporting. Nevertheless, Turkin finds such incidents the most disturbing because they show a complete failure of a nation to keep track of its nuclear material.

I asked Turkin how the scientific community was doing at maintaining control of its radiological material, and he said overall that “not many cases show research reactor fuel.” But that doesn't mean incidents involving academic material weren't taking place. Medical isotopes have much shorter half lives and are therefor under fairly lax control, he noted, as were smaller research sources used in most laboratories. Turkin felt that it was a mistake for authorities to overlook cases in which research material might go missing. “Every theft whatever the [radio]activity of the source should be investigated,” he says.

September 15, 2009

IAEA: More than non-proliferation at the old VIC

el Baradei.jpgGreetings from the Vienna International Centre (VIC), the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as the location of this year's general conference AND scientific forum.

Most of you might be surprised to hear that there is such a thing as a scientific forum at the agency responsible for policing the world's nuclear power facilities. But the agency does more than just act as a nuclear watchdog. In fact, a big part of the IAEA's job is to actually spread nuclear power technology to the countries who need it most.

And thus we come to the theme of the scientific forum, which this year is all about the energy needs of developing nations. This morning we heard from outgoing IAEA chief Mohammed El Baradei who called for the creation of a whole new kind of energy agency, one that would facility technology transfer of all energy technologies to the neediest nations, provide resource assessments, and perform a certain amount of R&D. Such an agency was briefly considered during the energy crisis of the 1970s, he said, “It's time we revisit the idea.”

Subsequent speakers provided a lot of evidence for the need for more energy aid. Ashok Khosla, president of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature delivered an eloquent speech about the need for action. At present billions of people lack access to the energy they need. In one part of India, the millions without power have resorted to cutting down forests, creating massive desertification. “Three million people without energy is not a moral outrage,”he told the crowd, “it's an ecological disaster.”

Thomas Schelling, Nobel Prize winning economist at the University of Maryland said that the mechanisms for delivering aid simply weren't there. What is needed was a Marshall-plan scaled effort in energy aid for the developing world. That in turn would require dedicated bureaucracies and new financing instruments, none of which presently exist.

It was a worthy cause, but unfortunately few at the IAEA general convention were paying much attention. During these troubled times, Iran's nuclear programme and the ensuing diplomatic hooha has stirred up a lot more interest than the needs of the developing world. I have to confess that I myself was lured away from the scientific forum to learn more about how the IAEA analyzes satellite imagery from the sites it monitors.

I do plan to get back tomorrow to learn more about the energy shortages facing billions of people. Iran may be grabbing headlines today, but the forum is obviously grappling with a far greater crisis, which may come to pass in the not too distant future.

IAEA