Hurricane seer sees more storms, and more criticism - April 10, 2008
Americans can expect more hurricanes than normal this year, according to predictions from William Gray, who has been forecasting tropical storms at Colorado State University for 25 years.
Gray’s team expect eight hurricanes and seven lesser ‘named storms’, mainly down to warm water temperatures. Of the hurricanes four will likely become serious category 3 to 5 beasts. A normal average year would see are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year (press release).
But some of the US papers point out that these numbers can be interpreted in lots of ways.
The Orlando Sentinel quotes “a vocal critic of the outlooks”, Western Carolina University coastal geologist Rob Young: “The primary problem I have with these forecasts is they contain no actionable information. If Gray’s team or NOAA predicts 15 storms instead of 12, what are you supposed to do different?”
He adds, “But the flip side is, the forecasts have been so bad over the past few years, they've actually done harm. When scientists are very publicly wrong over and over, it undermines the whole field.”
NOAA is downplaying its own predictions, due in May, with National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read saying recently, “Don’t hype the forecast” (Palm Beach Post).
Other coverage also takes a cautious approach, including the South Florida Sun-Sentinel which notes:
Some forecasters say predictions so far in advance contain too much margin for error, confuse the public and may lull people into not making adequate hurricane preparations. Those criticisms come after Gray and Klotzbach overestimated the 2006 and 2007 seasons and severely underestimated the chaotic 2005 season; in April of that year, they called for seven hurricanes to emerge — and 15 eventually formed.
The Sentinel also quotes James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center: “The forecasts tell you nothing about whether you’re going to get hit in any given year – even if they're dead-on accurate. As we’ve seen, they’re not dead-on accurate.”
The Houston Chronicle notes:
Forecasters, including Gray, suggest that people not obsess over the number of storms predicted. Instead, they urge, focus on whether a hurricane season is expected to see above- or below-normal activity, which can be more reliably forecast.
Gray’s team are also saying more storms will hit land.
“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline is 69% compared with the last-century average of 52%,” says Phil Klotzbach, one of Gray’s team.
Rage! Blow! You cataracts and hurricanes...
Image top: hurricane generated waves / NOAA
Image lower: artists impression of hurricane / NOAA