Nasa beats German teen (at maths) - April 17, 2008
Nasa has crushed the teenage dreams of a young German by rubbishing claims that he detected an error in its asteroid collision calculations.
A number of press sources ran with a story from the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten that Nico Marquardt calculated there is a 1 in 450 chance the Apophis asteroid will smash Earth, a chance Nasa puts at 1 in 45,000. These stories even claimed that Nasa had told the European Space Agency Marquardt was right.
But NASA says:
Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.
This student'’s conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.
Rumours that the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten journalist is to receive three million dollars for helping a Nigerian minister move some funds out of his country are also wide of the mark, apparently.
If something seems too good to be true...
Image: Apophis / Nasa