Sea level rise 'threatens millions' - April 16, 2008
The world’s seas could rise far faster than the UN is predicting, according to research presented to this week’s European Geosciences Union meeting. If this work is right, millions of people are living on what will soon be sea floor.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, from the UK’s Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, thinks we could see rises of 1 to 1.5 metres by 2100. By contrast the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted only a 28 to 43 cm rise by 2100.
Nature’s Quirin Schiermeier is blogging the conference at In the Field*:
Jevrejeva and her team reconstructed seal levels for the past 2,000 years, and then used a non- linear equation relating sea levels to temperature change to predict future sea level rise. Unlike the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), whose most recent prediction of sea level rise is three times smaller, the team incorporated into their prediction the rapid response to global warming of large ice sheets, such as Greenland’s.
...
The global sea level currently rises by 3.5 millimetres per year, as the combined result of thermal expansion of ocean water, glacier melting, and changes in the global hydrological cycle. Sea level rise by 1.5 meters would result in the loss of most of Bangladesh, and threaten low-lying regions around the world. In China alone, some 100 million people would need to be displaced if sea level were to rise by one meter or more.
The BBC notes that Jevrejeva’s results have been submitted for publication in PNAS. Both the BBC and Reuters quote Steve Nerem, from the University of Colorado, saying: “There’s a lot of evidence out there that we're going to see at least a metre of sea level rise by 2100,” says
Climate modeller/blogger William Connolley isn’t convinced. On his blog, under the headline Don't believe a word of it, guv, he says:
... it’s rather unclear where 0.8-1.5m comes from or how you can get that from monitoring past changes. Extrapolating past change into the future won't get you more than 0.3m for the 21st century.
...
Oh, and when I say I don't believe in 1.5m this century... I don't rule it out as impossible; but I can't see how you can get it from this stuff. ... Apparently "The rapid rise in the coming years is associated with the rapid melting of ice sheets." I think its entirely likely that *if* SLR is much larger than IPCC projections then the excess will come from ice sheets. But how you get that from past data is murky.
*Along with Oliver Heffernan of Nature Reports Climate Change.
Image: Getty
Comments
Between 18-8,000 years ago, sea levels rose 100m, or 10mm/year. How can Greenland's ice sheet, much further north, melt 10-15 times faster?
Global Warming has become a doomday cult, just like Peak Oil.
Posted by: Eric Gisin | April 16, 2008 04:01 PM
I like this news very much! I am only a p.6 students and now, we are studying about the global warming, this information helps me a lot.
Thanks very much.
P.S: I am Hong Kong students...
Posted by: edmond | May 15, 2008 09:32 AM
The study can be found here:
http://www.glaciology.net/Home/PDFs/Announcements/gslprojection
William Connolley's was not convinced because there was no paper available at the time.
Posted by: aslak grinsted | January 12, 2009 06:52 PM
Date 12/26/09
Combating Global Sea Rise
Not sure if anyone has considered this before, but there are a number of areas below sea level that isn’t too far from the ocean where a simple canal could be established to allow water to flow from the ocean to fill some deep areas on dry land and help offset global sea rise. Areas such as the Qattara Depression could be filled by ocean water. A simple cannel that would hardly support a boat could enlarge itself through erosion to allow for a larger flow of water to fill this natural depression.
Africa is in the process of breaking apart with low-lying areas that will be filled by the sea at some point in the future, and those who depend on water today are struggling because of these geographical changes and the lack of water. By establishing a canal to fill these low-lying areas with sea water, this will result in more rainfall in the region and help to establish better farmland.
Another example of a low-lying area is Israel, where the Dead Sea is shrinking. A canal from the sea with a dam could regulate the height of the Dead Sea to a desirable level.
Also, water from Lake Erie could be redirected to the southwest to refill aquifers.
http://geology.com/below-sea-level/
Mathew Sullivan
Boynton Beach, Florida
Posted by: Mathew Sullivan | December 26, 2009 06:52 AM