Swine flu goes global - April 28, 2009
Swine flu is spreading. The World Health Organisation has raised its pandemic status to level 4 (see Nature’s Briefing: Swine flu jumps continents, and the Swine Flu special).
The H1N1 virus has already appeared in North America and Europe. Now it appears to have reached Israel, where the BBC reports that Israel's deputy Health Minister Yakov Litzman “said the outbreak should be renamed "Mexican flu" in deference to Jewish and Muslim sensitivities over pork”.
Share prices have been sent haywire by the flu, with markets first dropping, then recovering, and probably dropping again by the time you read this. Oil prices are also down amid fears over the impact on the world’s already fragile economy and a likely drop in air travel.
Flights to Mexico are already being cancelled, with governments cautioning against “non-essential travel” to the country at the centre of the outbreak. Online pharmacies are already reporting a run on the flu drug Tamiflu.
Obama’s people have also been assailed with questions about his meeting with Felipe Solis, the Mexican archaeologist who died recently. The Mexican Ministry of Health has already denied initial reports that Solís had contracted swine flu (see: RIP Felipe Solís)
If this is all too depressing there is a slight silver line, not least if you make flu drugs or play the market. The Times business columnist Ian King writes:
Never mind drug stocks — there's nothing like a good health scare to give speculators a shot in the arm. Accordingly, shares of the antiviral makers GlaxoSmithKline and Roche rose on the Mexican swine flu outbreak. But the virus, which has caused more than 100 deaths, created trading opportunities everywhere.It was a day of swine and roses for anyone short of travel and tourism stocks...
And finally, Obama had the following to say: “If there was ever a day that reminded us of our shared stake in science and research, it's today.”
Image: Getty
Comments
In 1918:
In large U.S cities, more than 10,000 deaths per week were attributed to the virus. It is estimated that as many as 50% of the population was infected, and ~1% died. To compare, in "normal" (interpandemic) years, it is estimated that between 10-20% of the population is infected, with a .008% mortality.
The fact the current 'swine flu' has shown to be contagious is alarming. So far the virus has shown to have a 6% to 6.3% mortality rate. It may not seem like much, but please consider the following: The deadly influenza panic in 1918 had a mortality rate of under 1%.
This virus went on to kill tens of thousands of healthy people a day in large cities and up to 100 million people world wide.
Viruses, like this strain of swine flu, kill their host by over-stimulating active immune systems that are robust and healthy. That is why the victims in Mexico were between the ages of 20 and 45.
Some have said that no one in the United States have died from the virus, so we need not worry. Experts say it is only a matter of time. The virus is not prevalent enough to reach statistical significance in the United States, with only a handful of confirmed cases. 93.7% of all Mexicans with the virus recovered.
More cause for worry: The 1918 virus started off 'mild' before it mutated into a raging storm. It also does not mean we will see millions of deaths. It is too early to draw sweeping conclusions. Nevertheless, there is potential for a disastrous pandemic. If 50% of Americans catch this flu in the next two years, and the mortality rate stays at 6.3%, we would witness 20+ million deaths.
This strain of virus is more potent and more deadly than the virus that hammered the world in 1918 and 1919. Viruses come in waves. There are striking similarities to this virus and the virus that killed up to 100 million people in 1918. The first wave is historically more mild than the later waves.
In addition to this virus becoming more severe, it is mutating faster than previous virus that we have seen. In addition, this virus is nothing like we have ever seen before because it combines features from viruses natural in different parts of the globe. We are in uncharted territory.
If it follows the same path as the 1918 flu, we will see very damaging results. However, we must remember we are a global society now and the virus can spread quicker than we have ever witnessed in history. This is very concerning especially since the drugs we have now seem resistant.
While there have been no deaths in America, it is shadowed by the fact the common variable among the deaths seem to be age. While most American cases have involved the very young and very old (under 10 and over 50) the Mexican cases that ended fatally involved the robust and healthy (over 20 and under 45).
This virus kills the host by over-stimulating the immune system. The term that is used when the immune system over reacts is called a Cytokine Storm. It is usually fatal. During this “Storm” over 150 inflammatory mediators are released. This would account for the high mortality rate in 1918-19.
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Posted by: Jordan T. | April 28, 2009 10:20 PM
What about Mexican sensitivities?!
Posted by: Ed | April 29, 2009 02:36 AM
Ironically, after all the hype about avian H5N1 influenza, it is an H1N1 swine influenza virus that has emerged as a pandemic risk. It has already spread beyond any possibility of containment and look like a true pandemic strain. Another irony is that despite everyone watching China and Hong Kong for the emergence of a new pandemic strain, it has emerged on the opposite side of the world from Mexico and the USA. Instead of chicken farms, it is now swine farms that are the suspected origin of this new virus. This virus is nothing like SARS in that it has a presymptomatic infectious period of up to one day and is much more transmissible (just look at the epidemic curve of this outbreak in Mexico) than SARS or H5N1 avian influenza. This only goes to show that viruses are unpredictable and that human activities can not only generate such new viruses (e.g. farming), but also distribute such viruses in a very efficient manner (e.g air travel).
Posted by: Julian W Tang | April 29, 2009 04:06 AM