Betelgeuse about to blow? - June 10, 2009

Betelgeuse is shrinking! Could it be about to go supernova? Reports from the American Astronomical Society meeting in Pasadena, California this week suggest that over the past 15 years the bright red star has shrunk by 15%. (Press release)
Wowsers.
These long-term observations were made by nearly-94-year old Nobel laureate Charles Townes and his colleagues, at UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Laboratory.
The star is no dimmer than it has been over the time they’ve been looking at it, and the reasons for the shrinkage have so far eluded the team. "We do not know why the star is shrinking," says team member Edward Wishnow. "Considering all that we know about galaxies and the distant universe, there are still lots of things we don't know about stars, including what happens as red giants near the ends of their lives."
So far, so confusing. Few reports offer much explanation. The Register says the shrinking, seen by some including Townes as possible first signs of the star collapsing into a supernova, will be of most concern to fans of Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: the red star was home to Zaphod Beeblebrox. “Fans will be hoping that the recent shrinkage of Zaphod's sun doesn't mean that, in fact, his homeworld was destroyed hundreds of years before Earth's abrupt demolition to allow construction of a hyperspace bypass,” says the Register’s Lewis Page.
Over at New Scientist, we can find more in way of clarification. Townes tells them: “Maybe there's some instability in the star and it's going to collapse or at least go way down in size or blow off some material, but who knows.” Other astronomers polled for their opinions offer pulsations as a cause of the diminishment, or perhaps that the wonky star was just being looked at from a funny angle. "Often if you look at the simulations, the star is not spherical. It looks like a bad potato," Graham Harper from the University of Colorado in Boulder told New Scientist.
Image: NASA

Comments
If it physically shrinks but does not dim then it must become hotter to have the same total emittance. Take an optical spectrum to confirm blackbody peak temperature shift.
20 solar mass (borderline between core collapse to a neutron star or a black hole) Betelgeuse goes Type II supernova on 21 December 2012 local time. Unlike string theory, this can be validated or falsified. Super-Kamionkande gets a 10 second neutrino pulse. LIGO Washington and Louisiana detect gravitational waves, sending Kip Thorne to Sweden. The Earth and satellites get fried by annihalation radiation and later relativistic positrons as Co-56 in the fireball decays. Too much fun!
Posted by: Uncle Al | June 10, 2009 10:01 PM
dec 21 .,2012 ????
Posted by: stew | June 11, 2009 03:52 AM
has anyone considered that this star maybe coming to LIFE!!
Posted by: GH Stranger | June 11, 2009 06:20 AM
When will it Blow
Posted by: Bernard Finnegan | June 11, 2009 07:02 AM
Don't worry people if Betelgeuse does decide to go supernova, it's over 500 lightyears away and will not affect earth.
Posted by: Tia S. | June 11, 2009 07:36 AM
Betelgeuse, Betelgeuse, Betelgeuse!
Posted by: Barking Spider | June 11, 2009 08:23 AM
Wow. Wasn't expecting to see this. I was always under the impression that blues were the ones that went boom. I remember reading about this star when I was in school. I sat there at my desk for a good couple of minutes with my mouth open trying to grasp how large it was compared to our solar system and gave up. Should be an interesting light show if it pans out this way. Hope nothing was living nearby...what a way to go.
Posted by: Greg | June 11, 2009 08:37 AM
Folks, I hate to be the one to remind yew all, but...the Mayan calendar comes to an end at midnight, December 21st, 2012. As for me, I think I'll have two more tea martonies. Chow!
Posted by: JOHN PAUL JONES | June 11, 2009 10:34 AM
I always thought the blue's, those fast-burners, were the first to go, like someone else commented. Maybe we don't know enough about the life-cycle of the big reds.
Posted by: pete | June 11, 2009 01:16 PM
All stars "evolve" into another stage called Red Giants. In the case of "Super Blue Giants" evolve into "Super Red Giants", wich is Betelgeuse, at present. Check out an astronomy book and look for a color plate of the HR diagram.
Betelgeuse could become a Black Hole maybe, after going Supernova; depending on the Mass of it.
Generally a star that is 40-50 times the mass of our sun (one solar mass) would become a Black Hole, approx 4 miles across with a mass of 6 solar masses.
Posted by: John | June 11, 2009 03:47 PM
Whatever happens, mayan calendar, neutron star, or nothing, we will not see its final results for nearly 600 years.
Posted by: Tyrone Steele | June 11, 2009 05:01 PM
I didn't know Mayans lived in the Betelgeuse star system. Cool!
Posted by: Crow Magnumb | June 11, 2009 05:51 PM
The Zaphod & Ford thing isn't an issue. They were from "the vicinity of Belegeuse".
Posted by: Gus Michel | June 11, 2009 07:23 PM
We see the star as it was 600 years ago, if we see it go supernova then it happened 600 years ago. The contraction we observe today happened 600 years ago, not today. Seeing it explode today does not mean it won't affect us for 600 years. Besides, at 600 light years the affect should be purely visual. Right???
Posted by: guy | June 11, 2009 07:56 PM
So, there are at least a couple of you that were taken by Uncle Al's nonsense. The decrease was stated 15% in aprox. 15 years, according to the article. Let's say the collaps were to increase in speed by a rate of... 5x(give or take) during this "end of life" event... that would still put super nova well within the 2020 decade folks. At least TRY AND THINK A LITTLE!!! And please STOP VOTING. Dolts
Posted by: NotAFool | June 11, 2009 08:51 PM
Oh yay another end-of-the-world-of-the-month club seeder. Using big words fails to hide your moonbattery.
Posted by: Uncle Al is a dumbass | June 11, 2009 11:39 PM
Considering its distance from earth, hasn't it already gone supernova and the light of the event is just reaching us now?
Posted by: Rik Guido | June 12, 2009 12:17 AM
No information can travel faster than the speed of light. What we see and know of Betelgeuse now is all we can know about its progress. Because it is 600 light years away, to suggest (by extrapolation), that it has already gone nova simply has no validity. It is a non-statement. What we see NOW of Betelgeuse IS, FOR US, the state of Betelgeuse. We cannot see or know anything of B's "future" beyond that. For all we can know, it may turn into a giant pumpkin. Blame it on Einstein and Relativity.
Posted by: Chris White | June 12, 2009 04:41 PM
wow this is exciting....a supernova in my lifetime!!
Posted by: sabya | June 13, 2009 05:01 AM
>>Whatever happens, mayan calendar, neutron star, or nothing, we will not see its final results for nearly 600 years.
UNLESS, of course, it blew 596years 6months ago...
Posted by: sol | June 15, 2009 04:37 AM
I remember reading once that an ancient text, maybe Babylonian, described Betelgeuse as a yellow star.
Posted by: Mox | June 16, 2009 07:48 PM
The Mayan Calendar thing reminds me of a road trip with friends in college. Driving through the hills of West Virginia, where we had never before been, I as navigator announced that we would shortly be driving past the edge of our only map.
As we approached the End Of The Map, we saw a bright, wide line extending across the pavement ahead, its color and design exactly matching the decorative patterning of the border of the map. As we crossed this line, our everyday reality began to recede, and ...
Actually, no. The road went on just as before. The Map Is Not The Territory. The Mayan Calendar does not control time. It merely represents a portion of it.
Posted by: Bill L | June 19, 2009 08:16 AM
No information can travel faster than the speed of light.
Well, in fact it can, scientists experimenting with bubble chambers discovered a phenomenon not yet explained to my awareness. During a target impact, particles appeared at the far end of the chamber and decayed at the same time as the particles began to emerge from the target plate. This was repeated several times, then experimentally, a portion of a score of music was transmitted using the faster than light particles, which were invisible until their speed decayed below that of our perception of the speed of light. Once these particles, (ID unknown to me) had re-entered our perception, they quickly decayed into other particles. This is from memory and a google dig will produce much more sound information.
Posted by: Kevin | June 22, 2009 06:03 AM
DId you now that you are destroying the ozone layer by using motor.So don't use motor for short distance
My age : 8 yrs
Posted by: earth carer | June 26, 2009 05:21 PM
No effect on Earth? Well, 640 light-years fairly close for a supernova.
If the star were oriented differently, Earth would be hurting... let's just hope it goes supernova neatly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse#Fate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_ray_burst#Rates_and_impacts_on_life
Posted by: kevin | July 4, 2009 03:45 PM
At 650 light years, we're safe. The star would have to be within 50 to 100 light years before it could pose a danger to Earth. Fascinating post further up about particles traveling faster than light.
Posted by: TheFireNation | August 5, 2009 05:50 AM
If Betelgeuse were to explode, by the time we saw the light we will also be hit by the emitted radiation at the same time. They arrive together. And by that time, its too late to do anything about it. According to some recent comments (Thank the Lord for Discovery Channel!!) from astrophysicists like Dr. Neil Tyson and others, the radiation from such an explosion would indeed affect Earth and every living thing affected by very high doses of radiation. I heard Dr. Tyson say on a recent TV special that even humans could actually get 'sun-burned' by the intense gamma (?) rays the star would emit in such a massive explosion so 'close' to Earth.
Posted by: Aja | August 8, 2009 08:02 PM
9/11/09 BOOM supernova I saw something did anyone else see it?
Posted by: David | September 12, 2009 09:58 PM
I doubt we would be affected by the nova. Any dangerous particles would not be traveling at light speed, so there would be a significant time gap between the observation and any of the nasty stuff. Just think of the northern lights and how we see the CME then a week later it hits the VA belts.
Spacecraft on the other hand might need better shielding from any particles that make it our way. People smarter than me will decide that.
Posted by: FB | October 26, 2009 08:09 PM
It will go super nova 11 September 2011. Will start effecting earths weather and metor strikes.
Posted by: bob | November 19, 2009 11:23 AM