Quantifying the unquantifiable: global warming's elusive death toll - June 01, 2009
The Global Humanitarian Forum certainly attracted some publicity last week when it published a report suggesting that global warming kills 315,000 people each year and seriously harms another 300,000. Total price tag: $125 billion annually.
Such numbers are as appealing to journalists as they are to those who put them out, precisely because they are easy to understand and explain. They should also raise alarms, and for the very same reasons. It's not that anybody really doubts that global warming is impacting ecosystems and communities and thus affecting lives, but these are complex issues that resist quick attempts at quantification.
The New York Times published a quick story about the report while raising some basic questions about the estimations. The story quotes Roger Pielke Jr., who has been researching these issues for years, calling the report a "methodological embarrassment" that simply glosses over socioeconomic factors (like people moving into hurricane-prone coasts). For an in-depth discussion, check Pielke's blog.
Although the GHF didn't shy away from using the eye-catching estimates, the authors do explain their calculations in the report. Among other things, they cite data from Munich Re estimating that 40 percent of the increase in weather-related disasters from 1980 to present is due to climate change. As it happens, Pielke says Munich Re itself has come to the opposite conclusion when it comes to assessing the data and assigning blame.
Pielke's message appears to be getting out there. Reuters followed up its initial story with a second, more thematic piece raising various questions about this kind of research.
Comments
Return to the cold weather of the 1950s-1960s so the Green Revolution withers. How many now marginal Third Worlders die? Lots.
Posted by: Uncle Al | June 1, 2009 07:46 PM
global warming's ELUSIVE death toll - ELUSIVE is the operative word. Global warming hysteria is rising to a crescendo even as the hypothesis stands refuted and evidence against warming mounts.
Here is a report from the BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7240463.stm
"A seriously hot summer between now (Feb2008) and 2017 could claim more than 6,000 lives, the Department of Health report warns."
"But it also stresses that milder winters mean deaths during this time of year - WHICH FAR OUTSTRIP HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY - will continue to decline."
"While summers in the UK became warmer in the period 1971 - 2003, THERE WAS NO CHANGE IN HEAT-RELATED DEATHS, but annual cold-related mortality fell by 3% as winters became milder"
Now whats the story here?
1. Global warming has not increased heat-related deaths?
2. Global warming has caused cold related deaths that far outnumber heat related deaths to fall?
3. Global warming could claim more than 6,000 lives?
If you answered 1 or 2 give yourself an F but if you answered 3 give your self a A+
Posted by: Richard | June 5, 2009 01:24 AM