Two gorillas walk into a UN climate meeting... - June 05, 2009
Do they wind up in a standoff, beating their chests as the other primates stand by angry and embarrassed? Or might they initiate an inspiring public display of mutual respect and cooperation, if not affection?
The United States' lead climate negotiator, Todd Stern, is hoping for the latter and will depart for China on Saturday in search of ways to make it happen. "We're the two gorillas in the room," Stern told a crowd gathered at the Center for American Progress in Washington this week. "If we can join hands, it will truly change the world."
Among those accompanying Stern will be White House Science Adviser John Holdren and David Sandalow, assistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the Energy Department. It is only the latest in a string of delegations shuttling back and forth between the two countries, and it comes at a potentially revealing time.
The rest of the international climate community will be focusing on Bonn, where the United Nations is currently holding the latest round of global warming talks. With 184 days before Copenhagen, where the talks are scheduled to come to a close, the two countries appear to be seeking a little quiet time together.
The US-China relationship has sparked a fair bit of speculation as of late, spurred in part by an article about "secret" bilateral talks in the Guardian last month. In truth, the talks weren't all that secret, and in any case it would have been surprising if such talks weren't under way. But the sense of optimism raised plenty of eyebrows.
The China question is critical in Washington, where many lawmakers are loath to commit to a new regulatory regime without assurances that China will follow. Things are a little harder to gauge in Beijing, where the government's primary mandate remains economic development for its 1.3 billion people, most of whom remain locked in poverty. Many experts, however, believe China understands the problem, is already taking action and will do its part if the United States can get the ball rolling.
William Chandler, who handles energy and climate issues for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, only reinforced the idea in testimony before the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee this week. He says some kind of a US-China deal is attainable by fall.
California officials, meanwhile, have been working on agreements for projects at the provincial level that might help thaw relations at the top. Such a bottom up strategy gives negotiators the evidence they need that both sides are already moving forward in tandem, says Terry Tamminen, who is advising California Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger on the effort. "The goal is, prior to Copenhagen, to make it clear how much of this mosaic is in place."
