The IEA's take on carbon emissions - October 06, 2009
The International Energy Agency is urging us to remember that there's a good side to the global economic crisis - it's causing the sharpest plunge in carbon dioxide emissions for 40 years. In a teaser document extracted from its upcoming World Energy Outlook 2009 report, the IEA forecasts that emissions will drop by 3% worldwide this year. The excerpt was released today to coincide with United Nations climate talks in Bangkok, though the full report isn't out until next month.
The IEA will actually broadcast its silver-lining message three times - it made the same point when its headline statistics were partially leaked to the media last month, and it will do so again when the full World Energy Outlook report appears on 10 November.
Three-quarters of the drop was due to reduction in industrial activity (The Guardian). At first glance that would suggest that the only way to sustain this trend is to keep the world plunged in economic gloom. But the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, is taking a more positive spin on things: "Because of the financial crisis, many industries have the chance to move away from unsustainable power. If we get a good result at the Copenhagen climate talks, then they could be turned to sustainable energy," he told The Guardian.
The Wall Street Journal notes that the IEA urges investment of $10 trillion in renewable energy and other carbon-abatement technologies over the next 20 years. Thatis 37% more investment than the agency thought was necessary a year ago to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide-equivalents at 450 ppm. But, the IEA says, energy efficiency savings across industry, transport and buildings could total $8.6 trillion between today and 2030, similar to the additional investment it wants.
Reuters zooms into the figures a little more, noting that richer emerging economies including Russia, China and the Middle East (but not India) are supposed to stop growing their carbon emissions by 2020 under the IEA's scenario of climate action. Developing countries "appeared far from committing to that" at current UN talks in Bangkok, however, it notes.
Comments
I read the IEA press release and the special report. Whilst a reduction in the rate of CO2 emissions is great they seem to be sadly off the mark when they refer to CO2 levels of 450ppm. They use a couple of term, (a) 450 ppm and (b) 450 ppm equivalent. The reality is that when we quote ppm equivalent we are also adding in other greenhouse gasses which account for another approximate 20%. Therefore, with todays CO2 level being 390 ppm (according to Hawaiian Observatory) when we convert this to CO2 equivalent we get 469 ppm equavilent of CO2 in the atmosphere so we are beyond what they and some others consider an acceptable level.
Many other scientists, including James Hansen, believe that we need to get back below 350 ppm if we are to stand a fighting chance to mitigate climate change. I subscribe to this level but how we can get there is beyond me, especially now that the road to Coprnhagen is bogged down with uncertainty and lack of will.
Regards
Parick Jones
Posted by: Patrick jones | October 7, 2009 05:46 AM