North Korea is gearing up to launch its first satellite atop its brand new Unha-2, a three-stage rocket based on earlier technology. Nobody knows exactly when the launch will happen, but it will likely be soon: satellite images released by the always useful Institute for Science and International Security show that there’s something big on the pad at the North Korean’s launch site in Musudan-ri.

What, exactly, that something might be has proved a really fun guessing game for the folks over at Arms Control Wonk. They’ve been speculating about the blurry stick, but so far, about all they’ve figured out is that it is definitely a three-stage vehicle. A nice analysis by David Wright over at the Union of Concerned Scientists, sums up what little else can be said about the Unha-2: It’s probably capable of carrying 100kg into orbit, and it is based on the North Korean’s earlier missile, the TaepoDong-2. The TD-2 was only flight tested once before in July of 2006, and on that occasion it failed spectacularly and wound up in the Pacific Ocean.

That is unlikely to happen this time around in part because the US and Japan are vowing to shoot down any debris using their own missile defence technology. Aegis destroyers are moving into positions where they could intercept the launch with a Standard Missile 3 (see right), and the Japanese have even deployed Patriot missile batteries around Tokyo. All this has really ticked off the Norks, who, with characteristic hyperbolae have warned that shooting down their rocket “<a href=https://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2009/200903/news12/20090312-05ee.html >precisely means a war.” Stay tuned, the next few weeks promise to be interesting to say the least.

Image: U.S. Navy