Hundreds of California’s endemic plants could be driven out of the state by climate change, according to a new study.

Researchers calculated that two-thirds of the plants could have their range reduced by 80% by 2100. Changes in rainfall and higher temperatures will drive redwoods north and send oaks packing for the Oregon border, say the authors of a new paper in PLOS One.

“Part of me can’t believe that California’s flora will collapse over a period of 100 years," says study author David Ackerly. “It’s hard to comprehend the potential impacts of climate change. We haven’t seen such drastic changes in the last 200 years of human history, since we have been cataloguing species.”

The researchers looked at data from 16 state plant collections and used two climate models to see where Californian species would have to move to survive. They say we should prepare for the change by establishing corridors between several potential “refuges” for species, such as mountain foothills.

“It is a timely analysis of the likely fate of the plants of California in the face of climate change,” Peter Raven, president of the Missouri Botanical Garden, told the LA Times.

And Philip Rundel, plant expert at UCLA, told the paper the effects shown in this study “will surely be paralleled by what we can expect to occur with animal species”.

The San Francisco Chronicle has a zombie tree theme: older redwoods might continue, alone and hopeless in a world that has changed around them. “They may become the living dead,” says Ackerly. “The old ones will remain but the seedlings won’t grow.”

More coverage

Native California plants in peril because of changing climate – The Mercury News

Californian Plants Threatened by Warming, Study Shows – Bloomberg

Climate change to create “plant refugees” – Reuters

Image: Redwood National Park / US National Park Service