All eyes are now on tomorrow’s UN Summit on Climate Change in New York and the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh later this week, although it’s not yet clear whether either of these meetings is going to produce any meaningful breakthroughs.
Indeed, if last week’s US-sponsored Major Economies Forum is any indication, the outlook isn’t particularly good. The meeting ended as quietly as it began, leaving the United States’ top climate envoy, Todd Stern, with little to say except that there was a “narrowing of differences” among the globe’s top 17 greenhouse gas emitters. Combine that with increasing skepticism that the US Senate is going to be able to squeeze a climate bill out before the UN global warming talks in Copenhagen in December, and things begin to look positively gloomy.
Nonetheless, there are signs of movement at the highest levels, which is what people at the lower levels have been saying was needed for some time. Chinese President Hu Jintao will discuss his country’s climate policies during a much-anticipated address on Tuesday. US President Barack Obama plans to do the same, although it’s not clear how far he will be able to go given that his hands are tied by Congress.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has announced that he would be willing to personally attend the talks in Copenhagen if it comes down to that, and The Associated Press has reported that Obama might attend as well. This would certainly qualify as an important gesture of goodwill if the US delegation is unable to sign on to any significant commitments due to slow-moving domestic politics.
And just for kicks, Conservation International reports that out that Guyana President Bharrat Jagdeo and Harrison Ford (who does not lead a country but has appeared in some cool films) will attend an “extraordinary origami event” in New York, calling for the inclusion of tropical forest conservation an eventual climate change pact. Pictures aren’t yet available, but keep an eye out for “life-size origami trees and wildlife.”
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How all of this might play out this week is anybody’s guess, but many are banking on some kind of progress. UN climate chief Yvo de Boer put it rather bluntly in an interview on E&ETV: “This week will give us a sense on whether Copenhagen is going to be a success or not.”
The question will be how to define progress. Given that many experts are already lowering their expectations for Copenhagen, still 76 days out, the goal is largely to rebuild a sense of momentum from on high. In the meantime, many of the real negotiations will continue to take place behind closed doors.
Lastly, more news from the Silver-Lining Department: The International Energy Agency is preparing to release new numbers regarding global emissions and the impact of the economic crisis. The Financial Times quotes Fatih Birol, indicating that that decline in emissions is bigger than that experienced during 1981 recession.
This isn’t necessarily good news, given that nobody really wants to halt emissions by shutting down the global economy, nor was it entirely unexpected. More significantly, Birol also suggests that about a quarter of the drop could be due to energy and environmental policies in places like Europe, the United States and China. That creates a “unique window of opportunity,” he says, but nations must now follow up with progress in Copenhagen.