What is being billed as the first comprehensive review of the science of the Antarctic climate is again focusing attention on both the impact our actions will have on this continent and the vastly complicated nature of the Earth’s atmosphere.
Produced by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, the headline figure from the report is that sea levels could rise by 1.4 metres due to loss of ice from the West Antarctic ice sheet, with annual ice loss contributing tens of centimetres a year up to 2100. (See also: the recent Nature Geoscience paper on the eastern ice sheet.)
Another finding which is getting play in the press is that the hole in the ozone layer has shielded Antarctica from much of the impact of global warming. This is because the loss of stratospheric ozone has strengthened a ring of winds around the South Pole, altering weather patterns. (For more on the complex interplay of ozone and climate see the recent Nature feature: Fixing the sky).
The top ten findings of the report are:
1. The hole in the ozone layer has shielded most of Antarctica from global warming.
2. Warming of the Southern Ocean will cause changes in the Antarctic ecosystem.
3. There has been a rapid increase in plant communities across the Antarctic Peninsula due to warming along the western part and introduction of alien organisms.
4. Ice loss in parts of the Antarctic has been rapid, particularly around the Amundsen Sea Embayment, but the bulk of the Antarctic ice sheet has shown little change.
5. There has been a 10% increase in sea ice around the Antarctic, likely due to stronger winds around the continent. Regional sea ice has decreased west of the Antarctic Peninsula.
6. Carbon dioxide levels are increasing at the fastest pace in 800,000 years.
7. Sea ice loss is directly impacting krill levels and penguin colonisation.
8. Antarctica is likely to warm by around 3 degrees C over this century.
9. West Antarctic ice loss could contribute to 1.4 metres of sea level rise.
10. Improved modelling of polar processes is required for accurate predictions.