Posted on behalf of Jeff Tollefson:

As far back as 2005, there were a few lonely calls within the US electric utility industry to strike a deal on global warming legislation — quickly, while Republicans had a solid grasp on both chambers of Congress and the White House. Now Democrats command both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but the door to compromise has just been slammed shut again.

Senator Barbara Boxer of California, a leading Democrat on environmental issues, offered an unusually candid confirmation Wednesday of what has become the conventional wisdom in Washington — and it seems that Democrats and environmentalists are in no mood to bargain.

Senate Democrats plan to take up the leading climate bill, authored by Republican John Warner of Virginia and Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, in June. Supporters say the bill would reduce emissions by almost 19 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and roughly 70 percent below 2005 levels by mid-century. Many think Democrats are likely to come up short by a few votes, unless the bill is revised to make it a little more palatable to industry. But Boxer balked at the idea. If the bill is weakened in any way, she said, the leadership will simply pull it off the floor and wait until next year.

“We think, looking ahead, we are going to have a stronger House, a stronger Senate, and a stronger president,” she said. “We have the leverage right now.”

Indeed, Democrats are facing an unhappy electorate and a downtrodden Republican party in November, and they fully expect to gain seats in both chambers. The Democratic case is less clear for the presidency, but the presumed Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, has bucked his own party for years in pushing for action on global warming. Boxer said she is perfectly willing to wait until next year and work with “a president who gets it.”

This hard-line stance is, in the end, unlikely to matter too much. Things are stalled in the House, where leading Democrats have yet to even release a bill. Given that Congress only has a few months to go before the campaign season kicks off in earnest, the window for action is small and closing quickly.

So the Senate discussions in June will be little more than a dry run, but it will give everybody an idea of where everybody else stands – and provide plenty of fodder for campaign advertising come fall.