Corals around the world are in trouble and could fare much worse in the future, according to a report released today by The World Resources Institute. The report, Reefs at Risk Revisited updates a 1998 analysis that looks at the health of coral reefs worldwide. It incorporates new data and technology to bring climate change and human needs into the overall picture. While the results are grim, the report offers some hope about ways to save coral habitats.
“Make no mistake – this is a critical time for ocean ecosystems, especially for coral reefs,” said Jane Lubchenco, Administrator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), at a press briefing on the report, held today in Washington, DC. “Mounting pressures on land, along the coast and in the water, converge in a perfect storm of threats to reefs.”
About 75% of the world’s coral reefs are threatened by local and global human activities, according to the report. The percent of threatened reefs increased by almost *one-third from 1997 to 2007, likely because of increased pressure from growing coastal populations. Southeast Asia’s reefs are among the most threatened (map, yellow and red dots) as overfishing, including fishing with illegal poison and explosives, have put 95% of its reefs at risk. In contrast, Australia’s reefs are among those at low risk (blue dots) thanks to the designation of reefs as Marine Protected Areas and comparatively smaller human coastal populations.
The report highlights a new facet of the problem – the socioeconomic impacts of failing reefs. Coral reefs provide food, tourist attractions, and coastline protection for more than 275 million people worldwide. Some countries will have a hard time adapting to failing reefs, including poorer countries and those that have had recent conflict. Tundi Agardy, director of the Marine Ecosystem Services Program at Forest Trends, a non-profit conservation organization based in Washington, DC, who was not involved in the project, thinks the issue will resonate beyond the environmental community.
“You can talk until you’re blue in the face about increasing coral bleaching events or the prospects for ocean acidification undermining coral health all over the world,” says Agardy. “But until you translate that into potential economic losses, a lot of people aren’t really interested.”
Over two-and-a-half years, 12 institutions and 60 scientists collaborated to combine data about coastal development, pollution, fishing, ocean temperatures and ocean acidification for the report. The resulting updatable map is 64 times more detailed than in the 1998 report. Incorporating climate projections, the model predicts 90% of reefs will be threatened by 2030 and almost 100% by 2050 if current trends continue.
While these predictions are dire, the report suggests hope remains. According to the authors, reefs can rebound if communities work to remove local threats. Interactive maps provided through Google Earth are a new feature of the updated report that can help foster public awareness about threatened areas and aid the gathering of data from researchers in the field. Efforts to decrease unsustainable fishing, manage coastal development, reduce pollution and reduce emissions are also needed, however, and the authors say they hope the report will inspire policy makers and communities to make these changes.
“We have the chance to reverse the decline of coral reefs and bring them back to health,” Lubchenco said. “The window of opportunity for this option though is finite. Now is the time to act.”
* The 2011 study, with different modeling assumptions, is not directly comparable to the 1998 report. But a separate analysis was conducted that enables direct comparison and shows a 30% increase.