IEA: something for everybody in the 2009 outlook

Following up on some initial results released last month, the International Energy Agency released 700 pages of statistical goodness on global energy markets and greenhouse gas emissions on Tuesday.

Perhaps the most significant numbers in the World Energy Outlook, at least in terms of the current policy and the international climate negotiations, pertain to China. Indeed, the IEA suggests that if China actually follows through on all of the goals and targets it has announced (for renewables, nuclear power, energy efficiency and the like), it alone could account for 25 percent of the reductions that the world needs to make by 2020 in order to remain on track for limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Put another way, China would be doing more to address global than either the United States or Europe.

These are remarkable statistics, and they should get some attention when climate negotiators meet in Copenhagen next month. China represents the fastest growing source of emissions, and everybody wants to see them put some kind of numbers on the table, along with existing commitments. Those who look at the issue tend to come up with big numbers (see here and here). That said, the IEA’s analysis would be the most significant to date, and will likely serve as a baseline for assessments of what China is doing from here on out. Who knows, perhaps China will be inspired to come up with its own numbers.


The Financial Times picked up on this issue (as well as a bit of a spat regarding a story in the Guardian today claiming that IEA is hiding the truth about peak oil), but these were just a couple of the issues covered by IEA officials in London. Press reports were predictably scattered as a result. MarketWatch went with the line that oil prices were predicted to recover, while Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal went with the idea that oil demand is poised to fall. Both are accurate, depending on time frame (next few years versus 2030) and international energy policy (“business as usual” versus aggressive on global warming).

Renewable Energy Focus, not surprisingly, focused on renewable energy. Meanwhile, The Associated Press talked about the dangerous lack of energy investments due to the economic crisis, and Reuters covered the future costs of failing to make those investments now.

It’s tough to sum up a document like this, and reporters legitimately use it to shine a little light on many specific issues. Perhaps the central message, however, is that the international community can overhaul the energy in order to address global warming but must get started right away. IEA’s chief economist, Fatih Birol, said countries must move forward in Copenhagen. “A signal needs to be sent to the energy sector,” he said. “Without that signal, nothing will happen.”

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