Posted on behalf of Sharon Weinberger

Despite repeated assurances by Iran’s top leaders that its nuclear programme is intended only for peaceful purposes, a report released on 8 November by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that the government in Tehran has in fact pursued work related to the development of a nuclear weapon.

The report marks a significant departure from previous IAEA reports, which have sharply criticized Iran for hiding nuclear facilities, but have found no credible evidence that the country was working on a secret weapons programme. It also contradicts the United States’ 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which said that Iran has not pursued a nuclear-weapons programme since 2003.

Now, the IAEA says there is indeed evidence that Iran has been involved in the “acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network”, as well as the “indigenous design of a nuclear weapon”.

Among the specific work cited by the IAEA is evidence that Iran conducted a “large scale experiment in 2003 to initiate a high explosive charge in the form of a hemispherical shell”. It also says that Iran in 2002 and 2003 studied how to place a nuclear weapon on the country’s Shahab-3 missile.

The report, key findings from which were leaked to major media outlets in the days before its public release, has already produced dramatic headlines asserting that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. But a close reading of the report provides a more nuanced conclusion: the IAEA says Iran conducted work in the 2002 and 2003 timeframe related to nuclear weapons, but is more vague about later work, saying only there are “also indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing”.

The report says that evidence for Iran’s work was brought to its attention by another member state of the IAEA.

Rather than proving whether or not Iran is currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, the report is likely to add to an already contentious debate about the country’s nuclear programme and the value of intelligence. Even estimates of Iran’s abilities to enrich uranium are in dispute, with experts sparring over exactly how quickly Iran could, if it so chooses, produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb.

The report may also provide more fodder for those who believe that the IAEA under director-general Yukiya Amano’s leadership is moving closer to the United States, which has accused Iran in recent years of meddling in Iraq and Afghanistan. A US Department of State cable released in 2010 by WikiLeaks, the anti-secrecy organization, reports on a meeting of US diplomats with Amano, which found a “very high degree of convergence between his priorities and our own agenda at the IAEA”.