An asteroid being tracked by NASA has a 1 in 75 chance of whacking into Mars in January 2008, according to work from the Near Earth Object Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The asteroid, called 2007 WD5, is similar in size to the one thought to have whacked into Tunguska, Siberia in 1908, says AP. NASA expects it could reasonably make a crater about a kilometre wide.

Scientists have previously watched bits of a comet whack into Jupiter, and asteroids hit the Moon, but this would be the first observed Martian asteroid impact (even the Beagle mission, which accidentally ‘impacted’ Mars, happened unobserved).

Though they can’t say for certain whether it will hit the planet, they do seem able to predict where it would hit, should it hit at all: fortunately that ‘impact zone’ wouldn’t see the asteroid wipe out any Martian rovers, like Opportunity.

Should an impact happen, scientists round the world will be keen to watch the dust kicked up by the collision. There’s some nice local colour in Express India on this.