In the runup to Copenhagen, policymakers have been addressing China as the reigning developing-world heavyweight. But economist Nicholas Stern argued in a lecture last night that the moment is ripe for India to seize a leadership role.

“India, in my view, too often waits to hear the proposals of others and then puts its very fine minds to batting them back and explaining the myriad of reasons why they are inadequate,” Stern said. “What I’m arguing for is… going out there and explaining to the rest of the world what needs to be done.” In addition to his work on climate change, Stern also directs the India Observatory at the London School of Economics; he delivered the talk, at Chatham House in London, as the 30th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Lecture.

In contrast to the ever-diplomatic Stern, Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh has recently been blunt about the country’s stance. Speaking after the G8 conference, when developing countries shied from signing on to a target of cutting global emissions 50% by 2050, Singh told the Economic Times of India, “There is a lot of pressure on India and China on the issue of climate change. We have to resist it.”

Singh went on to cite India’s ambitious domestic climate plan and said the country is “willing to do more” if the industrialized world will help. In other words, India will resist being pressured into commitments – unless, perhaps, they come with large enough shipments of cash and technology.

Stern sympathized with this attitude. Nevertheless, he argued, India should take the high ground by openly admitting a basic numbers problem: if Indian and Chinese emissions grow unchecked, it won’t be possible for the rest of the world to keep greenhouse gases to safe levels. (The arithmetic on this is laid out here in the text from which Stern was improvising his remarks.)

Once that’s said, the proactive followup is to offer a bargain with some big numbers in it. Stern says India should propose that the developing world conditionally commit – or at least make a “commitment to commit” within five to ten years – to cut its emissions 20% from a 1990 baseline by 2050. But to earn a follow-through on this promise, he adds, the developed world should have to demonstrate progress towards an 80% cut by 2050 – and, of course, provide a free flow of technology and aid for adaptation and mitigation, to the tune of $200 billion a year by the 2020s.

Anna Barnett