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The first week of the climate change negotiations in Cancun is quickly drawing to an end, but so far talk about achievements has been rather quiet.

Christiana Figueres, the UNFCCC executive secretary, continues to hold the position that all the partners are willing to work together to reach some concrete, albeit small, agreements.

The most exciting (and unfortunately negative) update so far from the negotiations was Japan’s statement that it refuses to take part in any new targets within a second commitment phase of the Kyoto Protocol. The first commitment phase of the Kyoto Protocol is set to expire in 2012 and the parties have been racing to come up with something to replace it with before its first lifespan is up. Copenhagen was supposed to deliver this agreement but it only left a mess of mistrust – taking everyone several steps back rather than forward.

Now, Russia and Canada have also joined Japan’s position, refusing new targets under a second phase of the Kyoto Protocol, and calling for an all-new agreement to replace it. This means there is a slowly growing bloc taking up that position. The main limitation with the current agreement is, of course, that the US never ratified it. This makes developed countries furious of course, since they have binding targets to achieve while the world’s second largest polluter can continue a business-as-usual scenario.

According to Kilaparti Ramakrishna, a policy advisor in the office of the executive director of the UNEP, it would be “a very devastating message” if the Kyoto Protocol expires and there is no agreement in place to take the negotiations forward.

“The stakes are so high that it is almost inconceivable that you would have a situation where there is nothing in place. This would be a serious blow to the market, since there are tens of billions of money in there,” he added.

Ramakrishna, a lawyer by profession, explains that there is nothing within the Kyoto Protocol that says that there must be a second commitment period. “But the fact that the first period is ending means there must be something else in place. It could be a commitment period two, or it could be a different protocol.”

So what happens if the parties fail to come up with a new agreement or a second phase of the Kyoto Protocol?

“If that happens then the world is not serious about the science, and it is not serious about keeping temperature below 2°C.”

Well let’s hope they are serious then.