March is the month in which the Arctic sea ice heals as much as it ever will. Even so, the outlook remains grim, scientists reported today.

The floating skin of ice atop the Arctic Ocean expands and shrinks seasonally, with its minimum occurring at the end of the summer in September and the maximum at the end of the winter in March – i.e., now. Currently the sea ice extent isn’t the smallest it’s ever been at this point in the year — that dubious distinction goes to the winter of 2005-2006. But at a NASA-sponsored teleconference today, researchers cautioned that even though the extent of the ice isn’t at a record low, the amount of perennial ice — the ice that sticks around from year to year — is. As of February, only about 30 percent of the sea ice was old stuff that had been around for more than a year.

It may sound like a technicality, but researchers say the age of ice is a good indicator of how robust the ice cover is. The thinner and younger the ice, the more likely it is to melt the following summer. A decade ago, roughly 50 percent of sea ice was the old stuff, and the amount has been dropping steadily ever since (see graphic).

Starting in April, you can watch the progression of this summer’s sea ice melt at the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s website here. Bookmark it now.