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Global Warming and Forecasts of Climate Change

Posted by Olive Heffernan on behalf of Kevin Trenberth Given that human induced climate change is with us, a looming challenge is to predict just what the climate will be. To date, there are no such predictions although the projections given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are often treated as such. The distinction is important. A paper presented at the International Forecasting Symposium in New York City in late June 2007 by J. Scott Armstrong and K. C. Green is highly critical of IPCC procedures and “forecasts” for not being based on “evidence based” procedures as outlined 


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