Since it was coined by Gordon Moore in 1965 the doctrine that holds that the number of transistors that can be put on a computer chip will double every two years has been one of the most oft quoted scientific laws in existence. Now it seems, the end is in sight – Moore himself said this week he thinks the rule will only hold for another few years (Reuters, Wired, The Inquirer). “Another decade, a decade and a half, I think we’ll hit something fairly fundamental,” Moore, co-founder of chip-maker Intel, said at a conference on Tuesday.
This ‘something fairly fundamental’ is the laws of physics. IT companies are simply running out of space on chips to put more transistors, according to Reuters. As Nature noted in its coverage of the law’s 40 birthday (subscription required):
If his law is extrapolated to the middle of the twenty-first century, it says that a transistor will be as small as a single atom. … Even before then, chips will get so small that the insulating films will be too thin to prevent short circuits. And the heat generated by electrical currents in dense circuitry threatens it with meltdown.
Strangely, just days ago another Intel man – chief technology officer Justin Rattner – explained at great length to IT Business why the law was going to be live and kicking for some time yet. Moore has actually predicted the end of his law before (Wired). Even this time Ars Technica thinks it doesn’t really matter anyway – a decade is a loooooong time in technology terms. “My point here is that in 10 to 15 years, Ray Kurzweil may descend bodily from heaven with an all-star cast of futurists to lead us into the Great Beyond …,” it says in a quote that I’ve included mainly because it contains my blog’s name.
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