Timeline: Ice memory

Some of scientists’ gravest concerns about future climate change are rooted in the past. Records studied by paleoclimatologists reveal that the more extreme possibilities for this century and beyond — temperatures soaring, ice sheets vanishing, fertile lands withering into deserts — were realized previously on Earth when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels surged. At this summer’s AGU Chapman Conference on Abrupt Climate Change, researchers described this turbulent history through all manner of proxies – ice, tree rings, corals, marine and lake sediments, among others. But few talks went without a slide showing the wiggly line of a deep ice core.

Each proxy has its own merits, but ice cores offer records of climatic history whose detail and completeness are unmatched. Their data stretch back 800,000 years and are conveniently located in some of the world’s most climatically sensitive regions. Two new features on Nature Reports Climate Change pay homage to the work of scientists who, over the last few decades, have been tireless in their efforts to extract clues about the Earth’s past climate from air bubbles, isotopes and dust particles trapped in ice.

First, a timeline of deep polar cores documents in fine detail the discoveries of scientific pioneers, from the first efforts to read ice records through to today’s hunt for ice a million years old or more. Complementing this chronology of scientific discovery is an interactive map layer for Google Earth. This virtual tour takes you to the sites where polar researchers have holed up year after year, drilling thousands of metres of Greenland or Antarctic ice before hitting bedrock. In the window below, spin the globe to the pole of your choice, zoom in and click on the map points to see the drilling stations. For a full-size view and more navigation controls – plus a built-in web browser window where you can check out the timeline – download the map layer here and run it in Google Earth, which you can download here.

As I highlighted earlier on the blog, this month’s issue of NRCC also features an exclusive interview with world-renowned glaciologist Lonnie Thompson. On his quest to understand how ice is changing atop the world’s mountains, Thompson has spent more spent more time above 20,000 feet than any other human being; he’s currently with a team at the Quelccaya glacier in Peru, racing to bring back ice that is rapidly being lost to climate change. The American Museum of Natural History has put together a great video on his work.

Such endeavours come with scientific challenges as well as personal ones. As understanding abrupt climate change becomes increasingly crucial, ambitious plans for studying these icy environs will be ever more important.

Anna Barnett

Unknown climate culprit for Palaeocene-Eocene warming

wetlandsA reconstruction of the Earth’s climatic history during a key hot period 55 million years ago has highlighted a yawning gap in our understanding: this period’s rise in carbon dioxide accounts for just half of its warming. Some as-yet-unidentified climate feedbacks could be at work, the scientists behind the research conclude.

The era under scrutiny is the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Paleoclimatologists believe that the PETM could mimic our own future climate, because it’s thought to have kicked off with a pulse of carbon dioxide roughly equivalent to what humans are currently pumping out by burning fossil fuels. In a study published in Nature Geoscience (subscription), Richard Zeeb of the Universtiy of Hawaii and colleagues make a new, more precise estimate of the PETM’s carbon dioxide release based on ocean sediment records.

The increasing carbon levels caused ocean acidification that dissolved deep-sea carbonate compounds. By using measurements of this process along with a carbon-cycle model, the team inferred that during the period’s initial CO2 spike, no more than 3 billion tonnes of the gas was released over 5,000 years. Even before then, the planet looked like a greenhouse – it had a much warmer climate than today and about 1,000 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere. Over the main phase of the PETM, the group estimates the CO2 level rose to 1,700 parts per million.

But according to the IPCC’s best guess at climate sensitivity, that 70% rise should have pushed up global temperatures 3.5 degrees Celsius at most. Other proxy records indicate, though, that temperatures soared by 5 to 9 degrees. In other words, the consensus climate sensitivity – the value, devilishly hard to pin down, for how much warming will result from a given greenhouse gas increase – doesn’t seem to be holding.

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Interview: Lonnie Thompson

Q&A_AB

At the AGU Chapman Conference last month I met up with Lonnie Thompson, the alpine glaciologist who has spent more time above 20,000 feet than any other human. Despite being interrupted by last-minute demands from Peruvian customs officials – he was squeezing me in before taking off for a new expedition in the Andes – an unphased Thompson carefully laid out the past and present-day climate change that his work has uncovered. Here’s an extract:

What information can you garner from glaciers?

Glaciers are like sentinels, and they’re telling us that the system is changing. The first thing we look for in the ice is radioactivity from thermonuclear bomb tests in 1962–1963 and 1951–1952. Back in 2006, we drilled three cores in the southwestern Himalayas. At 6,050 metres, where those glaciers reach their highest elevation, we found that neither of these radioactive layers was preserved. The glaciers are being decapitated. Not only are they retreating up the mountain slopes, but they are thinning from the top down.

This same scenario is playing out on Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa. When we drilled there in 2000 we found the 1951 test preserved, but not the 1962 test. We’ve since continued to monitor those glaciers and we know that we’ve lost three metres of ice since 2000. If we had waited until this year to drill, we would not have found the 1951 bomb horizon, because that has now been lost.

What does that mean for climate science?

Once a glacier melts, the history it contained is gone forever, so there’s an urgency in trying to collect the records before they are lost.

The loss of tropical glaciers is very telling because they’re in such sensitive places. Half of the surface of the planet lies between 30° N and 30° S. That’s where the heat that drives the climate system is received. It’s also where 70 per cent of the 6.7 billion people on the planet live.

 

What’s the effect on people as these glaciers disappear?

After this meeting, we’re headed to Peru to drill new ice cores at two sites. That country contains 75 per cent of the world’s glaciers. Eighty per cent of its population is in the desert on the west coast, and 76 per cent of the electricity comes from hydropower, from streams that are fed by glaciers in the Andes, all of which are retreating. Those changes are impacting the ability to produce hydropower, to irrigate crops in the desert and to provide municipal water supplies.

Read the full interview here.

Anna Barnett

Image: © Thomas Nash 2000. All rights reserved.

Holy snakes!

Posted on behalf of Roberta Kwok

Scientists have found a new way to estimate past climate: snakes. news.2009.80.jpg

In case you haven’t seen the media flurry, researchers have uncovered the remains of a gigantic snake in northeastern Colombia (which news outlets have described as “” https://features.csmonitor.com/discoveries/2009/02/04/prehistoric-one-ton-super-snake-ate-alligators-for-lunch">Super-snake", “”https://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gvMX4MXQYzy22YM8gMEBTIUR6lFQ">Bus-sized boa", and “”https://www2.canada.com/technology/columnists/grandaddy+snake+world+unearthed+colombia/1252613/story.html?id=1252613">Granddaddy of the snake world", among other things). The newly named Titanoboa cerrejonensis would have measured 13 metres long and weighed about 1,135 kilograms, making it the biggest known snake, living or extinct.

Why does this matter for climate predictions? The snake lived 58 to 60 million years ago, around the Palaeocene when the Earth’s upper latitudes were much warmer than they are today. This was a time when ice at the poles had melted and crocodiles roamed the Arctic. But, as climate scientist Matthew Huber describes in a Nature News & Views article, researchers are less sure how hot the tropics were during that time.

Vertebrate paleontologist Jason Head of the University of Toronto in Canada and his colleagues, who reported the snake discovery in Nature, reasoned that such a large snake could only survive at a certain temperature. Snakes rely on external heat from their environment to help fuel their metabolism. The bigger the snake, the more heat it requires, which is why you don’t see pythons in Minnesota.

The researchers used a model relating animal body size and ambient temperature to determine how hot the tropics must have been to support the snake. Today’s tropics average 26-27 degrees Celsius, and the largest “verifiable” modern anaconda is 7.3 metres long, the study says. Assuming Titanoboa had a similar metabolic rate to today’s snakes, the team calculated, the Palaeocene tropics must have been 30-34 degrees Celsius.

“We’ve taken the snake and turned it into a giant thermometer,” says Head.

The finding suggests that as Earth’s higher latitudes warmed up during the Palaeocene, the tropics got hotter as well. This goes against the argument that the Earth has a ‘thermostat’ mechanism that keeps tropical temperatures steady. And while the comparison between the natural global warming of the Palaeocene and modern human-induced global warming is “very tenuous”, Head says, it might mean that today’s tropics will heat up just as fast as the rest of the world, potentially leading to more extinctions around the equator.

Lisa Sloan, a climate scientist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, calls the study “intriguing”. Although it would have been nice to get estimates from other large Palaeocene creatures as well, she says, the approach has “a lot of potential” for future research.

Image: Jason Bourque