Climate change could cause a mass extinction in the near future, UK scientists are warning. Their research found global biodiversity was relatively low during warm greenhouse periods and that in these periods extinctions have been relatively high. Of five previous mass extinctions, four correlated with increased temperatures.

“Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner,” says Peter Mayhew of the University of York. “If our results hold for current warming — the magnitude of which is comparable with the long-term fluctuations in Earth climate — they suggest that extinctions will increase.”

In fact, if temperatures predicted for the next few centuries do come to pass over 50% of animal and plant species could be put to the climate sword according to the press release, although at a quick glance I can’t find this figure in the paper (abstract, PDF). The story is getting wide coverage, mainly in the UK press (Guardian, BBC, Reuters, Times, Independent, Herald Sun, AP).

It’s worth noting that the mechanism for link is, as the paper notes, “still unclear, and only when they become clearer we will be in a position to comment confidently on the implications for future climate change”. Equally it’s not immediately clear how the relatively long periods of time detailed in the extinctions and warming in this paper relate to our current situation, which some people are already calling a sixth mass extinction, and Charles Petit is asking the question ‘what about the asteroids’.