Whether climate change will increase the number of hurricanes is fiercely debated in the research community. There is also strong disagreement between researchers over the accuracy of claims that hurricane activity has peaked over the past ten years.

But a new study in Nature this week (subscription) throws more weight behind arguments that hurricane numbers are on the rise and could continue to surge as a result of global warming. The paper’s covered here on Nature News.

The study looked at historical hurricane activity across the entire tropical Atlantic basin to see if the current peak in storm numbers is anomalous. It found that it was not. The results show high hurricane activity also occurred at around 1000 AD, where levels approached that seen today.

Previous research has shown that warm sea surface temperatures could encourage hurricanes to form. Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University and the study’s lead author, says the historical peak in hurricane activity coincided with periods of high sea surface temperatures. This suggests that the annual number of hurricanes will continue to increase as a result of global warming, says Mann.

“This tells us that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and cyclone activity seems to be robust and gives support to the debate that we are likely to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in response to global warming,” he says.

But given the passion with which the scientific community is divided on this issue, it’s unlikely we’ve heard the last of this.

Natasha Gilbert

Image: NASA