Money talks, and so do bloggers. Unable to resist the correlation, a number of climate scientists and analysts have adapted their online podiums into betting tables. The RealClimate team are the latest to roll up to the climate casino, staking €5,000 against the predictions of a recent Nature paper (subscription required) that in the next decade, falling temperatures in some regions will cause a slight slowdown in global warming.
The paper’s authors, Keenlyside et al., have yet to accept or reject the bet, and it’s not available to any other cooling proponent who may be feeling lucky. But if your opinion on global warming is burning a hole in your pocket, you have some options. Brian Schmidt’s Backseat Driving, for example, lists several standing offers to all takers.
Those like Schmidt who back the scientific consensus that the Earth is warming, however, have had a hard time convincing anyone to gamble large sums on cooling. A few bookmaker’s highlights:
The bet: The global temperature average for 2000-2010, and that for 2005-2015, will be warmer than that for 1994-2004.
The bettors: Stefan Rahmstorf, Michael Mann, Ray Bradley, William Connolley, David Archer, and Caspar Ammann of RealClimate offer this one to Keenlyside et al.
The stakes: €2,500 for each bet
The odds: 1:1
Tip: The Keenlyside et al. paper has been criticized here and here. RealClimate don’t like it either, but they’re not saying why until they get a response to their offer.
The bet: “In 10 years, I expect the globe to be somewhat cooler than it is now.”
The bettors: Skeptical meteorologist Bill Gray said in a recent speech at the conservative Heartland Institute think tank that he was “willing to make a big financial bet” on this prediction. Schmidt pounced on it, and the two are now working out terms.
The stakes: Big
The odds: TBA
Tip: This would be only the second bet against substantial warming that Schmidt has managed to secure.
The bet: Global average temperatures in 20 years will not be lower than they are now.
The bettors: Modeller James Annan offered this in 2005 to the skeptical atmospheric physicist Richard Lindzen, who Annan says refused his odds.
The stakes: $10,000
The odds: 3:1
Tip: Annan explains: “3:1 would be a reasonable middle ground between an honest sceptic – Mr 50-50, who believes cooling is as likely as warming and would therefore expect to win $1 on average from a $3 v $1 bet – and a (mythical?) ‘true believer’ who believes that a rise in temperatures is certain and would therefore also expect the same bet to be worth $1 to him.” But the outwardly skeptical Lindzen quailed at the offer, instead proposing odds of 50:1. Rejecting this, Annan (and, following suit, George Monbiot) then tried to bet against cooling with other disappointingly shy skeptics. Two solar-variation backers finally took him up.
The bet: Modellers’ scenarios will predict future climate, on a 1-10 year timescale, no better than a null forecast where each year’s prediction matches observations in previous years.
The bettors: Skeptic and would-be forecasting reformer Scott Armstrong repeatedly offered this bet to Al Gore, but Armstrong’s March 26 deadline passed without a definite answer from the great PowerPointer.
The stakes: $10,000
The odds: 1:1
Tip: The methodology behind Armstrong’s bet – and his general challenges to climate forecasting – were drop-kicked by Annan, RealClimate, and Kevin Trenberth on Climate Feedback.
Anna Barnett
Photo: PocketAces