The magnitude 7.9 earthquake that shook China in May has significantly increased the chances of another major quake in the region.

Geologists have used computer models to assess the impact of the Wenchuan quake and say that stress in three other fault systems in the Sichuan region has shot up, doubling the risk of a quake (press release).

“We tend to think of earthquakes as relieving stress on a fault,” says Ross Stein of the US Geological Survey, one of the authors on a paper describing the findings in Geophysical Research Letters.

“That may be true for the one that ruptured, but not for the adjacent faults. … One great earthquake seems to make the next one more likely, not less.”

A Nature paper from July also tackled this issue, and featured on our podcast in that month (podcast, transcript).

News coverage

China’s big earthquake doubles chances of more – Reuters

Quake… Again? – Wall Street Journal Blogs