The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration increased its Atlantic storm forecast on Thursday, predicting the formation of as many as 5 major hurricanes through November (Reuters).

In all, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a total of 14-18 named storms during the 2008 season, which runs from June through November. Seven to 10 of those are likely to become hurricanes, three to six of which qualify as “major.” That is slightly higher than the original forecast in May and comes with a confidence level of 67 percent.

So far this season two major storms have hit the US Coast: Dolly landed on South Padre Island in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane on July 25, and Tropical Storm Edouard struck the Texas coast further north on August 5.

In all, there have been five named storms and two hurricanes, one of which was major. Just do the math to figure out the rest of the season: That leaves an additional 9-13 named storms and five to eight hurricanes; two to five of those are likely to be major.

As it happens, the new forecast aligns well with a recent update by noted hurricane forecaster William Gray, a former Colorado State University climatologist. The Associated Press reports that Gray is calling for nine hurricanes, five of which will qualify as major.