Seismic study loses air over wildlife concerns

Bruce Gibson argues for the use state-of-the-art seismic survey techniques.{credit}screenshot from California Coastal Commission live webcast{/credit}

A California regulatory board on 14 November denied a key permit for a proposed study of under-sea faults near the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in San Luis Obispo County. The plant’s owners, San Francisco–based Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), had designed the project to aid the state in re-evaluating earthquake risks to California’s two nuclear facilities following the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in March 2011.

The California Coastal Commission reached a unanimous decision after hearing hours of testimony from PG&E, interest groups and concerned citizens. Environmental groups such as the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), based in New York City, argued that marine wildlife would be harmed by the use of high-energy seismic reflection — a technique that maps geological structures in three dimensions by shooting intense sound waves into the ocean and measuring their echoes off of geological features beneath the sea floor. The sound blasts, which measure 230–252 decibels at the air gun source, can penetrate 10–15 kilometres into the Earth.

In its own staff report, the California Coastal Commission estimated that more than 7,000 marine mammals — including several whale species, harbour porpoises and sea otters — would be disrupted by the study. “There will be impacts,” acknowledged Mark Krause, director of state agency relations for PG&E. “We believe we’ve mitigated them to the degree feasible.” In recent months, the company had revised the proposal to reduce the survey area and included additional wildlife monitoring efforts.

PG&E has argued that high-energy testing could provide the most detailed maps yet of a complex network of offshore faults near the plant, including the Hosgri Fault, which lies about three miles to the west. But the commission remained unconvinced that the possible benefits of the project outweighed the costs.

“We know that there is potential for very significant marine resource impacts here,” said Charles Lester, the commission’s executive director. “We don’t feel the case has been made that this particular test at this time is needed.”

The commission urged the company to finish analysing other seismic data it has collected using onshore and low-energy offshore techniques in recent years — data that many opponents say could obviate the high-energy tests.

Still, other critics, such as Bruce Gibson, a former geophysicist and a current county supervisor in San Luis Obispo, want to see the high-energy studies carried out but using more sophisticated technology that might collect data faster and with less environmental disruption.

If the company decides to submit a revised plan, it may still need to convince commissioners that the information gleaned from high-energy seismic tests would have practical value.

In her closing comments, commissioner Jana Zimmer questioned whether more detailed maps of the surrounding faults could be used to  improve the safety of the plant, which is currently designed to withstand a 7.5-magnitude quake.

“If we assume that there is a possibility of a disastrous quake — an 8.5 or 9.0 quake — are there design fixes, are there technologies that we know about that are available… that it would be able to withstand such a quake?”  She said that she hasn’t received a satisfactory answer from the company.

Even if not for safety considerations, some scientists saw the project as an opportunity to collect crucial information about tectonic interactions between the Pacific and North American plates, which create lateral motion along several ‘strike-slip’ faults in the region.

“Strike-slip systems are not straight lines on a map and in 3D they’re not simple planes. To understand their complexity they need to be imaged, and this is an opportunity to image one in great detail,” Art Lerner-Lam, deputy director of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, New York, told Nature.

PG&E had hoped to enlist scientists from the observatory to conduct the seismic research using the National Science Foundation–owned research vessel Marcus G. Langseth. If chosen, the scientists would have made the project data publicly available.

New York research facilities feel Sandy’s wrath

Posted on behalf of Brendan Borrell and Helen Shen.

It was sometime around 8:00 pm on Monday night when the surging East River, driven by Hurricane Sandy, broke its banks and a deluge of brackish water came pouring into the basement of New York University’s Smilow Research Center at 30th Street. For neurobiologist Gordon Fishell, who was weathering the storm at his home in Larchmont, New York, it was the worst-case scenario for his research.

The flooded basement houses the building’s animal care facility and its emergency generators.  Fishell lost 40 strains of mice in all — about 2500 individuals — the sum total of what he had developed over a decade of research on forebrain development, including a paper published last year in Nature. Today, the building reeks of diesel fuel, and dozens of Fishell’s colleagues in fields that range from cancer research to cardiology have yet to take full account of the magnitude of the disaster.

Although New York University (NYU) was clearly the research facility hardest hit by this week’s storm, others were also affected. Leslie Vosshall, who studies the olfactory system of mosquitoes at Rockefeller University, located about 35 blocks further up river from NYU, shut down a computer server in the basement on Sunday, but fears it could have been damaged from flooding. She has had to wait for the university to pump out the water, before she can check on it. “We do have some of the data backed up elsewhere, but it would set us back significantly.”

Brookhaven National Laboratory on Long Island was largely spared, but the evening was not without drama. Lanny Bates, assistant laboratory director for facilities and operations, says that the lab decided to keep one supercomputer online for international collaborations and power outages knocked out their cooling system for several hours. “We ran out of chilled water and the temperature rose from 43 degrees to 47,” he says.

Fishell says the one bright spot is that he has received calls and emails of support from colleagues at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and Weill Cornell Medical College, who are offering to help him replenish his mouse colony. They can do that because he has always believed in sharing reagents and mice strains as quickly as possible after publication. “I don’t think there is a single allele that we had produced or transferred that is not in someone else’s hands,” he says. “If there’s a lesson in this, it’s why sharing in the community is so valuable.”

Prosecution asks for four-year sentence in Italian seismology trial

Posted on behalf of Nicola Nosengo.

Public prosecutors in L’Aquila, Italy, have requested a four-year prison term for the six scientists and one government official charged with manslaughter after a magnitude-6.3 earthquake hit the city and its surroundings on 6 April 2009, killing 309 people (for more background on the case, read the Nature feature article ‘Scientists on trial: At fault?‘).

All those indicted took part in a meeting held in L’Aquila on 30 March, 2009, during which they were asked to assess the risk of a major earthquake in view of many shocks that had hit the city in the previous months. At the end of the meeting the Department of Civil Protection held a press conference where it downplayed the risk of a major quake and urged the population to stay calm. In particular Bernardo De Bernardinis, then deputy head of the department and among those indicted, said in a TV interview: “The scientific community tells me there is no danger because there is an ongoing discharge of energy”, a statement that most seismologists consider to be scientifically incorrect. According to the relatives of some victims and to the prosecutors, those reassurances prompted many people not to evacuate, hence the manslaughter charge (See ‘Italy puts seismology in the dock‘).

The trial began a year ago, on 20 September 2011 (See ‘Scientists on trial over L’Aquila deaths‘), and has proceeded at an unusually fast pace (by the standards of the Italian judicial system), with an average of one hearing per week. The prosecution’s closing arguments lasted from Monday morning until Tuesday afternoon, and were shared between two prosecutors, Fabio Picuti and his assistant Roberta D’Avolio. Picuti made it clear that the scientists are not accused of failing to predict the earthquake. “Even six-year old kids know that earthquakes can not be predicted,” he said. “The goal of the meeting was very different: the scientists were supposed to evaluate whether the seismic sequence could be considered a precursor event, to assess what damages had already happened at that point, to discuss how to mitigate risks.” Picuti said the panel members did not fulfill these commitments, and that their risk analysis was “flawed, inadequate, negligent and deceptive”, resulting in wrong information being given to citizens.

Picuti also rejected the point – made by the scientists’ lawyers – that De Bernardinis alone should be held responsible for what he told the press. He said that the seismologists failed to give De Bernardinis essential information about earthquake risk. For example, he noted that in 1995 one of the indicted scientists – Franco Boschi, former president of the National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV) – had published a study that suggetsed a magnitude-5.9 earthquake in the L’Aquila area was considered highly probable within 20 years. Similarly, said that in 2009 INGV’s maps of seismic risk estimated the probability of a magnitude 5.5 shock in the following decade to be as high as 15%. Such data were not discussed at the meeting, as the minutes show.

“Had Civil Protection officials known this, they would probably have acted differently,” said Picuti. “They were victims of the seismologists”.

Claudio Eva – a professor of physics at the University of Genoa who is among the indicted – said after the hearing that he had been expecting the request for a four-year sentence. He declined to comment further, as did the others.

The defence will present its closing arguments on 9 and 10 October, and the court’s decision is expected on 23 October.

Japan’s nuclear sun to set?

A week can be a long time in politics, so today’s announcement by the Japanese government that it intends to phase out its 50 remaining nuclear reactors by around the 2030s is perhaps much less of a certainty than it might at first appear. Under the plan, existing reactors would be phased out when they reach 40 years of age so causing a gradual fall in nuclear’s share of electricity generation in Japan, as no new reactors are built to replace them.

Many of Japan’s reactors are relatively young meaning that any phase-out will bite hardest quite a fair bit down the line – see the graph belo,w which gives a snapshot of the age of Japan’s power reactors – leaving potential scope for Japan’s nuclear policy to shift in the future under different administrations, and circumstances. (In passing, several of Japan’s reactors were built in the last decade, and two reactors are under construction, so under the 40-year rule would persist beyond 2040). In contrast, Germany which last year decided to phase out its then 17 nuclear reactors intends to do so by 2022 – see “The knock-on effects of Germany’s nuclear phase-out” (almost all of its reactors were built in the 1970’s and are nearing the end of their lifetimes).

{credit}IAEA{/credit}

Indeed, in the short-term, the pledge to phase-out nuclear energy may provide the Japanese government with political cover to begin restarting reactors, the last of which was shut down in May (see ‘Japan switches off its last nuclear reactor). The reactors, closed for routine maintenance, would usually be reopened immediately after this was completed, but all will need to meet new safety tests and rules to be implemented this autumn before being restarted.

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Japanese science ministry takes partial blame for tsunami and meltdown

Japan’s ministry of science and education was supposed to be celebrating the 50th anniversary of its first annual White Paper on Science and Technology with the 2011 edition. Instead of a long spread of great achievements by Japanese scientists over the past five decades, however, the document, which was approved by the government yesterday, became the latest mea culpa for the poor handling of last March’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident. The document puts the spotlight on the responsibility of the countries’ scientists and engineers.

Yasuhiro Yukimatsu, director of the ministry’s strategic-programmes division and head of the six-person team that put the 260-page document together, says it’s the first time that the ministry’s White Paper has become a work of atonement.

The list of failings is familiar by now: scientists lacked “fundamental knowledge about the mechanism of ocean trench earthquakes” and didn’t predict the possibility of a mega-earthquake. They underestimated the height of the tsunami and produced a hazard map with a large gap between estimated and actual inundation. Risk-communication efforts failed to prepare citizens for the unexpected.

The document also pointed to slow and inconsistent handling of various crucial endeavours after Fukushima nuclear reactors went haywire: establishing and lifting evacuation zones, implementing radiation monitoring, sizing up the effects on human health, decontaminating the environment and food, communicating risk, and the difficult process of decommissioning the reactors.

Headlines of most Japanese newspapers have introduced the document as expressing, on behalf of the Japanese scientific community, “deep regret”. Continue reading

Fukushima owner is nationalized

Fukushima

It was as inevitable as cherry blossoms blooming in springtime: sooner or later, Japan had to nationalize the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), the owner of the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Today the government announced a ¥1 trillion (US$12.5 billion) plan to bail out the country’s largest utility, and at least temporarily take control.

The need for the takeover stems directly from last March’s meltdowns. In the immediate aftermath of a massive earthquake and tsunami, TEPCO unexpectedly found itself struggling to contain three reactors on the site. The company could not stop the meltdowns and has spent months bringing the reactors under control. In the past year, it has made progress, creating a system to recycle radioactive cooling water from the core, but the long-term clean up will take decades (see the video below for more).

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Plutonium spotted far from Fukushima

Plutonium sample sites in JapanA paper out today in the journal Scientific Reports shows evidence that radioactive plutonium spread tens of kilometres from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The new work could lead people to believe that there is a health risk, but that is not the case.

Plutonium is a radioactive element that is made inside nuclear reactors. Unlike some of the other contaminants to come from Fukushima, it is not volatile, and it is much harder for plutonium to escape from a nuclear reactor during a meltdown. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen: when Chernobyl’s Unit 4 reactor exploded in 1984, it released a large quantity of plutonium into the surrounding environment.

Plutonium can be dangerous. When it decays, it usually releases heavy particles such as electrons and helium nuclei. These particles aren’t particularly dangerous outside the body, but if plutonium is ingested they can cause genetic damage.

The new paper shows that minute quantities of plutonium from Fukushima have spread far from the plant. In samples taken to the northwest and in the J-Village, where workers live, the authors found trace amounts of plutonium in the surface soil (see map). Looking at the ratio of plutonium-241 to plutonium-239, they were able to conclude that the plutonium came from Fukushima rather than other sources, such as old nuclear-weapon tests.

The additional exposure from inhaling this loose plutonium at the S2 site is around 0.5 millisieverts (mSv) over 50 years.

This dose — 0.5 mSv over half a century — is five times higher than the government’s current estimate for plutonium exposure from the accident, but it doesn’t mean there’s a health risk. Over the same period, the average person on Earth would receive 120 mSv from natural sources of radiation. Even for those who worry about low-dose radiation, it’s safe to say that this additional plutonium exposure won’t have an impact.

Nevertheless, the measurements are interesting. The distances at which the team finds the material imply that plutonium was ejected during the hydrogen explosions in the first days of the crisis. And the relatively low levels (around 10,000 times lower than Chernobyl) suggest that the heavily shielded concrete casings around the reactors did offer some protection from the worst of the fallout.

There’s another reason this work is important. As we report this week, mistrust is running high among residents in Japan. Independent measurements such as these are extremely important in providing residents and evacuees with the information they need to get on with their lives. In this case, the measurements show little additional risk. But news of plutonium, no matter how small, will no doubt be dispiriting to the residents of Fukushima.

New twists in Italian seismology trial

Posted on behalf of Nicola Nosengo.

The courthouse in L’Aquila, Italy, yesterday hosted a highly anticipated hearing in the trial of six seismologists and one government official indicted for manslaughter over their reassurances to the public ahead of a deadly earthquake in 2009 (see ‘Scientists face trial over earthquake deaths‘ and ‘Scientists on trial: At fault?’). During the hearing, the former head of the Italian Department of Civil Protection turned from key witness into defendant, and a seismologist from California criticized Italy’s top earthquake experts.

All those indicted took part in a meeting held in L’Aquila on 30 March 2009, during which they were asked to assess the risk of a major earthquake in view of the many shocks that had hit the city in the previous months. After the meeting, Bernardo De Bernardinis, deputy head of the Department of Civil Protection, said to the press: “The scientific community tells me there is no danger because there is an ongoing discharge of energy,” a statement that most seismologists consider to be scientifically incorrect. On 6 April 2009, a magnitude-6.3 quake hit the city, killing 309 people. De Bernardinis and the six members of the scientific panel have been indicted for manslaughter because their false reassurances prompted many people not to evacuate.

Guido Bertolaso, former head of the Department of Civil Protection and De Bernardinis’s direct superior, had not been indicted and was originally expected to appear as a witness. But a few weeks ago a wiretap revealed that he had apparently set up the meeting to convey a reassuring message, regardless of the scientists’ opinion. He also seemed to be the source of the “discharge of energy” statement. He thus found himself under investigation and, at the beginning of the hearing, he was officially notified that he too may soon be formally indicted for manslaughter. Continue reading

Western Himalayan region faces big quake risk

jhelum.jpgThe Kashmir region in northwestern India could experience a magnitude 9 earthquake — several times larger than previously assumed. The revised risk estimate is worrying, says Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado, Boulder, who presented the results on 7 December at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. “There are many cities and megacities in the region. And there are a couple of nuclear power plants there too,” he says. “You have two nuclear powers facing each other, armed to the teeth, facing a huge amount of damage”. Bilham speculates that perhaps 300,000 people might die in such an earthquake, not counting subsequent problems from political turmoil between India and Kashmir, or flooding.

[image: the Jhelum River in Kashmir could flood from a quake-triggered landslide]

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Fracking caused British quakes

Blackpool.jpgA UK energy company has admitted that their hydraulic fracturing project (commonly known as ‘fracking’) probably caused a few surprisingly large earthquakes in Lancashire this spring. But, their report into the events concludes, it should be safe to continue operations in the area. Protesters disagree.

Fracking involves pumping millions of litres of water underground to fracture shale rock, allowing natural gas trapped inside to flow up the well. Concerns have been raised about whether this technique is safe (see Should fracking stop? and United States investigates fracking safety).

Two quakes of magnitude 2.3 and 1.4 in April and May, along with a cluster of 48 much smaller events, struck near the fracking project of Lichfield-based company Cuadrilla Resources. Cuadrilla stopped operations, and commissioned independent reports from a handful of consultants, including a Czech Republic seismic company and a British geomechanical services company, to investigate whether the drilling had triggered a nearby fault. Their synthesis report is now out.

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