WASHINGTON, DC — Aligning the priorities of all stakeholders involved in vaccine development can be a convoluted and thorny process. An international health organization might emphasize a candidate vaccine’s expected health benefits for disadvantaged populations, a government agency might be more focused on its own backyard, and a drug company could be driven by its monetary bottom line. With so many competing interests, what experimental product does it make the most sense for these partners to pursue?
Soon, a mathematical model that’s particularly good at weighing complex alternatives may be able to help. It’s at the heart of a new computer program, called the Strategic Multi-Attribute Ranking Tool (SMART) for Vaccines, that scores potential avenues for vaccine research and development according to the priorities fed into its algorithm. Members of the US Institute of Medicine (IOM) panel behind the new tool, who discussed the algorithm’s prototype at a meeting here on 2 November, hope it will establish a shared vocabulary that will allow everyone working on preventative vaccines for infectious agents to better understand and share their own perspective. “We’re creating a common language for people to talk with, instead of everyone having their own language,” says IOM committee member Charles Phelps, a health economist at the University of Rochester in New York.
In the past, the IOM simply released reports that encouraged vaccine developers to prioritize tackling certain diseases on the basis of the balance of expected health benefits, the costs of developing and administering the vaccine and the projected savings from the preventative medicine. For instance, in the most recent report, published in 2000, the IOM strongly favored targeting influenza, a virus that kills up to 49,000 people each year in the US at a cost of tens of billions of dollars annually to the country’s economy. In contrast, the bacteria responsible for Lyme disease, a far less prevalent pathogen with a smaller economic burden, fell much lower on the priority list.
The IOM had intended for vaccine developers to take its rankings into account when making decisions. However, according to Paul Offit, chief of infectious diseases at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine, such lists tended to justify choices that had already been made. “When the IOM puts a list out,” he says, “[vaccine manufacturers] feel that validates what they’ve done.”
With the SMART tool, any organization can generate its own priority rankings, custom-tailored from a list of 29 different vaccine attributes, including the number of premature deaths expected to be prevented from immunization, the availability of other medical interventions and whether the targeted disease has been stigmatized. A vaccine maker could give more weight to economic considerations such as the costs of clinical trials and licenses, say, whereas a defense-related agency could flag diseases that tend to afflict military personnel serving abroad. Out pops a numerical score for each candidate under consideration, thanks to a computational method also used to weigh complicated options for expanding Mexico City’s airport decades ago. Each score is broken down to reveal how much the chosen priorities contributed to the final number.