Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Science Team

Today, in a conference taking place in the library of Alexandria in Egypt, chaos erupted in in the hall over a very simple issue: Will the Nile Delta in Egypt disappear due to climate change?

The Nile Delta is a very fertile lowland area at the end of the River Nile, just before it meets the Mediterranean Sea. This fertile triangle of land is responsible for 50 percent of all crops grown in Egypt, making it of enormous importance for the country’s food security. Most global climate models put the Nile Delta as one of the most endangered regions in the world due to sea level rise.

The conference gathered top scientists and researchers from the Middle East region for a dialogue on environmental issues that challenge development in the Arab world, including food security, water poverty and climate change. This was part of a series of planned dialogues to review the latest Arab Human Development Report (AHDR), released in late 2009.

Chaos erupted, however, when one of the presenters said that the Nile Delta, which is documented as one of the most threatened areas in the world due to climate change, was in no danger whatsoever. No flooding was going to take place, land salinity was not going to increase, and millions of people were not threatened with becoming environmental refugees.

Confusion abounded as some scientists agreed while others disagreed, with each of them arguing passionately, and sometimes angrily, for their point of view. Some said they’ve worked on research that proved one point or the other, while others took it as a chance to attack the results of the IPCC as “inaccurate, misleading, and politicized.”

The problem is that all arguments were weak and not a single one cited a peer-reviewed paper. Many of the scientists arguing that the Delta region was not sinking said that the global models were wrong and inaccurate. However, we have very few, if any, reliable regional climate models..

Mahendra Shah, director of the Qatar National Food Security Programme, commented to me recently that the Middle East region “has not really assessed what will be the impacts of climate change, and the first thing to do to assess this is by looking at the global climate change models.”

That makes perfect sense, and it is definitely high time we started to do serious, international-quality research into climate change impacts on the region, because no one else is going to do it for us.

But until we do, I believe that the advice given by Dr. Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, director of the Environmental Management Programme in the Arab Gulf University, during the discussion, to “take the path of precaution until we have substantial data,” is definitely very, very sound advice.

Two weeks of heated arguments at the CITES COP15 meeting held in Doha, Qatar, concluded last Thursday, with mostly bad news for marine species. Proposals to put blue-fin tuna and some shark and coral species on the Appendix I list (which bans all trade) were rejected.

“CITES wasn’t initially designed to manage commercial marine species,” Simon Stuart, chair of IUCN’s Species Survival Commission, said in a statement. “However, on a regional level the pressure to list commercially valuable marine species on CITES is growing."

But Arab states performed particularly well in this international meeting, raising interest in what role this bloc might be able to play in the future. On very, very rare occasions in the past have Arab countries worked together to present a unified voice to tilt negotiations in their favour. But unified positions during CITES brought real change. The end result might not have always been in nature’s best interest, but it was still an impressive stance.

This was first seen regarding Egypt’s proposal to move its population of Nile Crocodiles from the Appendix I list, which bans any trade in the species, to the Appendix II list, which allows regulated trading of the species. After being nearly wiped out in Egypt, the native crocodile population has since the 80’s soured. Accurate population records are missing, but local authorities put the number as high as 30,000 individuals. The surge in the population has often raised concern from the local fisheries communities.

A unified position for all Arab states behind this proposal brought it very close to passing, with only five votes stopping it. However, the EU reviewed its position due to the popularity of the proposal and after an Egyptian revision, voted in favour of it as well, passing the proposal through.

The other example of a unified position was not as positive. Because Blue-fin tuna play an important economic role for Morocco, Tunisia and Libya, the Arab states, as a whole, supported not banning trade of this marine delicacy. This played an important role in blocking a proposal from Monaco to list Blue-fin tuna in Appendix I.

It will be interesting to see if Arab states can continue to cultivate that unity and act as a unified bloc, pretty much as the EU does, during such international meetings, to bring about agreements in their best interests.

“This is the first time that Arab countries coordinate their positions together. This is good, and desirable. What is needed is to increase scientific research, so that the Arab block can base their coordinated position on science,” said Wael Hmaidan, executive director of the League of Independent Activists (IndyACT).

The hottest topic in corridors, during lunches, and behind-the-scenes at the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) meeting taking place in Doha, Qatar, was the blue-fin tuna. But one week into the meeting, which brings together 175 countries, the conservationists have suffered a stunning defeat.

The US and the EU had formed a coalition asking to list the blue-fin tuna in appendix I (which totally bans trading in the species) or appendix II (giving strict quotas for a regulated ban). However, Japan, which controls 80 percent of the blue-fin market, strongly refused these new regulations.

Japan created its own coalition of fishing countries that oppose the ban. This quickly grew to include Tunisia, UAE, Canada, Indonesia, and several other poorer countries. Finally, a Libyan diplomat called for a vote which saw a crashing defeat for the proponents of a ban on fishing of blue-fin tuna.

The problem is the increasing politicizing of CITES means this decision largely ignores science. A similar series of events took place only a few months ago during the climate change summit in Copenhagen, another COP meeting. Nations in the biggest gathering ever of state leaders failed to come to an agreement on climate change, in spite of overwhelming evidence of the severity of the danger it poses to life on earth.

There is overwhelming science that shows the blue-fin tuna is indeed endangered and could possibly be over-harvested into extinction soon. The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) recently produced a report arguing that blue-fin tuna levels were at 15 percent of their value before commercial fishing started.

This was enough to make the blue-fin tuna eligible for listing in appendix I.

Like the climate change summit, this latest development at CITES shows a disregard for the science in these large international meetings, where political alliances dominate first place.

The climate change COP15 meeting was the first wake-up call, and now CITES is an exact repeat. How should these international meetings be handled? How can science and scientists be given their due place, rather than have them decided by internal, short-sighted interests?

Wikipedia

The biggest meeting for environmentalists since the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen takes place next week, and it is coming to Doha, Qatar.

The 15th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) takes place among great expectations. The UN has declared 2010 to be the International Year of Biodiversity. But while there are good news in the bag to offer to governments during the meeting, there are some quite foul apples mixed in as well.

On the good side, there are proposals to lift CITES regulations from some species that are not in danger of extinction anymore, easing their trade regulations. This is probably due to successes of conservation projects, but it also poises the danger of reversing these species to endangered status again due to unregulated trade.

But there will be a lot of discussion on rhinos and ivory trade, with a lot of finger-pointing at China, who reportedly has imported 141 white rhinos from Africa since 2000. Most countries are not convinced this large number of a rare species is for zoos and tourism, however.

Marine issues will also play a central role. Simon Stuart, chair of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Species Survivial Commission commented that the illegal, unmanaged, and unreported fishing is threatening many species such as sharks, bluefin tuna and other commercial fish.

Middle East

The Middle East is home to several vulnerable and endangered species, such as the Arabian Oryx, the White Tailed Fish Eagle, and the Nubian ibex. Perhaps the most stressed, critically endangered is the Northern Bald Ibis. While it was once one of the most popular birds in the Middle East, today there are less than 300 remaining.

Lack of awareness and conflicts in the region have given conservation efforts more of a backseat in the Middle East. However, lately several countries are coming together to promote conservation. The average Arab today is much more aware of the need to conserve species and work together for that aim.

For example, Qatar has several successful breeding programs for the Arabian Oryx, and it has been reintroduced into three natural reserves – Al Shahania, Ushaijrij and Mazhabyah. The species may be downgraded from endangered to vulnerable on CITES during this meeting.

Stay tuned to the blog for updates over the coming two weeks on the meeting. After the rather interesting events that took place in Copenhagen during the climate change meeting, it is particularly interesting to see if the more than 175 nations coming together can reach concrete agreements.

Meanwhile, do you think the meeting will be a success? Will this year really bring a reverse in the loss of biodiversity we’ve seen over the past years?

With four fifths of its area covered in endless, barren deserts, sustainable use of natural resources becomes a necessity, rather than a luxury, for the Middle East. While the region is rich with fossil fuels, it is among the driest places in the world. The water scarcity and booming population growth mean that lifestyle changes are inevitable.

There are several projects springing up around the region that are trying to address some of these issue. Perhaps the best known is Masdar city, on the outskirts of Abu Dhabi in the UAE, which is planned to be the world’s first zero-carbon zero-waste city, housing 50,000 people in homes and businesses. The same minds behind Masdar announced they plan to have another ecological city on the outskirts of Amman, Jordan, that will house up to one million people (although it will not be zero-carbon like Masdar). And most recently, the Egyptian Minister of Electricity and Energy, speaking at the World Future Energy Summit, announced that 20 percent of Egypt’s energy will come from wind and solar energy by 2020. This ambitious target would make the country the region’s leader in renewable energy use.

However, the lifestyle changes are easier said than done. In households in the richer, oil-producing Gulf states, energy conservation is not an issue to bother about. Inefficient air conditioning systems, oil hungry SUV’s, and non-biodegradable plastic bags are widespread.

All these wonderful initiatives are little more than show if they are not accompanied by extensive education of citizens on how – and why – they need to conserve energy and aim for a more sustainable lifestyle.

The Middle East wants to become a model of sustainable development and that is doable. But you cannot miss the role of money in this development. When a project such as Masdar has a budget of USD22 billion, it is hard to be labelled as sustainable, let alone model fro others to emulate. Most developing countries around the world cannot develop in such an expensive manner.

These ambitious announcements and projects spell good fortune for the region. While the Middle East is rich in oil, it is much richer in sun. Tapping into this source of energy could well place the region as a major player in the new and booming market of green energy, while generating thousands of jobs for the increasing young population in the region.

However, until the people’s awareness catch up and sustainable lifestyles are promoted, these isolated projects will remain green oases among the barren deserts.