Leopard woes

Two every week – that’s the least number of leopards poached or illegally traded in India, according to a new study by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). And if one considers unreported incidents, this figure could go up to four every week, the report says. Like similar reports on other big cats, this one also rues that poaching and illegal trade are shamefully becoming the biggest threat to the survival of the ‘Prince of Cats’.

{credit}Samir Sinha{/credit}

Most of our conservation is tiger-centric. So, the very fact that a decadal study (2001-2010) has been dedicated to its poor but no less majestic cousin leopard,  is in itself something to sit up and take note. More often than not, the leopard is in the news in the Indian subcontinent for being on the ‘prowl’ in suburban human habitats (1, 2, 3) or if the animal is trapped by forest officials and released back into its habitat (1, 2). Like the elephant, the leopard has been at the centre of nasty human-animal conflicts that make for unhappy reading in newspapers.

WWF’s wildlife trade monitoring network TRAFFIC now says, the results in its new report are more than double of all reported leopard-related statistics on illegal trade. That is alarming.

No reliable population estimate of the leopard Panthera pardus exists in this country. This is primarily because of the animal’s elusive nature and its widespread geographical distribution. A vague estimate puts the number at less than 5 animals per 100 square km and so the total number of leopards in the country is anybody’s guess.

Entry from August 1933 issue of Nature{credit}NPG{/credit}

With that blind spot as a backdrop, the TRAFFIC report throws up some unnerving data: at least 1127 leopards were either poached or illegally traded during 2001-2010. The authors say if one adds the unreported incidents, this number could go up to 2294. The report is based on data from 420 incidents of reported seizures of leopard body parts from 35 territories in India.

The authors of the report – Rashid Raza, Devendar Chauhan, M. K. S. Pasha and Samir Sinha – say leopard skin seems to be the most lucrative body part in the illegal trade market. About 88 per cent of the seizures involved only skins and the rest were primarily claws, bones and skulls. The national capital Delhi was found to be the most important hub of illegal trade, according to the report, followed by four northern states – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana.

Among the usual suspects that they recommend – understanding leopard trade better and strengthening law enforcement – is something noteworthy: improving scientific knowledge on leopards. Though there have been sporadic studies recently on the snow leopard, knowledge of leopard ecology and biology is still scarce. Adding to the woes of the leopard is the fact that there are no reliable national population statistics.

This takes me back to a small entry I noticed in an archival issue of Nature from August 1933, while researching leopard science sometime back. The entry (picture right) was about a pair of leopards from Hyderabad being added to the London zoo. It suggested that the genus was not studied enough, scientifically speaking, and needed ‘intensive’ attention.

Nearly 80 years down the line, aren’t we still saying the very same things?

Physical sciences rule

A new Thomson Reuters analysis is another testimony to India’s traditional stronghold in chemistry, physics and material sciences research.

At an award ceremony this week (september 12, 2012) in New Delhi, Thomson Reuters honoured 10 of India’s leading researchers based on their citation impact analysis. The award recipients were from the fields of chemistry, physics, materials science and nanotechnology. Two of them were from the Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) in Pune. We featured another couple of them in a  blog in October, 2010 when the Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar award and the Infosys awards were announced in the same month.

The scientists honoured for their cutting edge work by Thomson Reuters are Anunay Samanta of the University of Hyderabad; Murali Sastry, DSM India Private Limited, Gurgaon; Rabin Banerjee, S N Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences, Kolkata;  Sandip P Trivedi, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai; Sarit Kumar Das, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras; Thanu Padmanabhan & Varun Sahni, both from IUCAA, Pune; Umesh Vasudeo Waghmare, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research (JNCASR), Bangalore; Velayutham Murugesan, Anna University, Chennai and Vinod Kumar Garg, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science and Technology, Hisar.

Our hearty congratulations to them!

According to the ‘Essential Science Indicators’ data of Thomson Reuters, India is ranked number 16 worldwide on the basis of total scientific paper citations in journals indexed by them between January 2001 and August 2011. And physical sciences clearly stand as winners for India.

In 2008, Thomson Reuters had chronicled the growth of papers in India from about 20,000 in 2003 to 27,000 in 2007.  Materials Science had the steepest growth from 432 papers in 1981 to 2,300 papers in 2007. India’s share of world papers (2003-2007) was also comparatively high in agricultural sciences (5.17% of the database), Chemistry (5.04%), and Physics (3.88%). Overall, all but three of the top ten research fronts with the highest representation of India institutions were in high-energy or theoretical physics.

Great times for physical sciences in this country!

Climate perceptions

OK, so who do you trust most when it comes to news about climate change? Scientists, media, environment organisations, the government, religious leaders or your own family and friends?

{credit}YPCCC{/credit}

Looks like Indians make a clear choice in the matter, and a very scientific one at that — 73% of the 4031 Indians surveyed in a Yale University project have reposed their trust on scientists. The study called the ‘Yale project on climate change communication’ investigated the state of awareness of Indians, their beliefs, attitudes, policy support, and behaviors vis-a-vis climate change. It also studied public observations of changes in local weather and climate patterns and people’s sense of vulnerability to extreme weather events. The survey has an urban bias though, with three quarters of the respondents from cities and the rest from villages.

Coming back to the trust factor — followed by scientists, the survey found that news media (69%), environmental organizations (68%), family and friends (67%); governments and religious leaders (about 50%) were the ones chosen by people to believe climate change related information.

There are strong messages for climate change communicators and policy makers in this representative survey — for instance, 80% of those surveyed watch or listen to serial dramas on radio or television. This was followed (nowhere closely) by hearing/watching news on sports, movie stars, world affairs, local politics, environmental issues, national politics, local weather forecast and business and financial news. So that, sort of, makes a case for where to plug your climate change messages.

Recently, a course correction evaluation of India’s national climate change policies found inconsistencies in what the government wants to do and what it can achieve through its various missions. About 41% of respondents in the Yale project felt the government of India should be doing more to address global warming. Some (38%) also thought India should reduce its own emissions of the gases that cause global warming immediately, without waiting for other countries.

A lot of interpretation is made by climate change policy makers based on local knowledge. Scientists are often pointed to incidents of regional climate change through local people. Local perceptions are considered an important link in the debate on ‘whether it is happening or not’. In the Yale survey, a whopping 80% people said that the amount of rainfall in their local area had changed in the past 10 years – it had either decreased (46%) or increased (34%). More than half the people said that hot days in their local areas were more in number, 21% said that severe storms and droughts had become more frequent and 15% said so had floods. 38% said the monsoon has become more unpredictable in their local area compared to the past. These are significant pointers, both for scientists studying the phenomena and mitigation and adaptation organisations.

What is triggering climate change? More than half the people surveyed thought it is caused mostly by human activities, while 31 percent said it is caused by natural changes in the environment. Again, half the respondents said they had already personally experienced the effects of global warming, while 43 percent said that global warming is already harming or will harm people in India within the next 10 years.

Along with the review of the National Action Plan on Climate Change, this survey make for some interesting background material for the powers that direct policy in this country.

Two degrees of concern

At a recent meet of climate change communicators in Kathmandu, a documentary film called ‘A Degree of Concern’ by Syed Fayaz got the attendees talking animatedly. The film made in the last decade, projected a scenario in a distant future when one degree rise in temperature would play havoc with the glaciers, make agriculture unsustainable and, in short, impact every aspect of our life. It ended with an ominous and alarming warning: “Just one degree”. Though cinema-wise sound, the foremost criticism for the film was its poor scientific assumption — it relied on a baseline data of just three years, in which the temperatures in the freeze zones of upper Himalayas was found to be fluctuating increasing by two degrees every year. That was the basic flaw — a poor baseline.

N H Ravindranath{credit}IISc{/credit}

Today, a media report quoting an upcoming paper in the Indian science journal Current Science says the temperature rise scenario isn’t far away. It is just around the corner — by 2030 — and the predicted rise in temperature, primarily due to green house gas emissions,  is not one degree but somewhere between 1.7 to 2 degrees! Now that comes as a real alarm. The scientists, including lead author R K Chaturvedi say they have arrived at the conclusion through an average of 18 climate models with a smaller margin of error. This kind of rise will actually be quite severe — N H Ravindranath, a professor at the Centre for Sustainable Technologies and Centre for Ecological Science at IISc and co-author is quoted as saying.

Such temperature rise will make Northern India unbearably hot — as of now the heat wave in peak summers kills many and pushes groundwater levels further down. In northeast India, Arunachal Pradesh will be the worst hit, according to the report.

S K Dash, head of the department of Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at IIT Delhi, quoted in the same report, has been studying regional temperature rises for a long time now. He said in a phone chat that there are a number of open source models predicting temperature rise scenarios across the world and it is possible to collate them and arrive at a figure. He is, however, willing to wait till the scientific paper is out to make a comment one way or the other on the veracity of these findings.

On its own, IIT Delhi is currently undertaking what it calls regional climate modelling (RegCM) to be able to project a future scenario till 2100. “We have studied the temperature rise scene up to the year 2003 and found that in the 100 years preceding it, the rise has been about 1.2 degrees,” he said.

Dash is cautious in making any further remark — and he makes the right scientific query: what is the baseline for this new study? Since when has the data been measured?

Like him, we shall wait for the Current Science paper. It would be interesting to see the climate models used for this study.

Century launch

It will be the 100th space mission for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) tomorrow (September 9, 2012) as it launches another vehicle from  its workhorse series — PSLV-C21. The 49-year-old organisation has come a long way with  62 satellites and 37 launches in its repertoire. ISRO’s first mission — the Aryabhatta satellite launched using a Russian rocket — dates back to1975.

PSLV C-21{credit}ISRO{/credit}

As countdown begins for PSLV-C21, preparations are also underway to host VIPs such as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh — in charge of space and atomic energy — at Sriharikota, the launch venue. However, considering that it’s ISRO’s 100th mission, the event has not received as much publicity as one would expect of a landmark occasion like this. The ISRO press release announcing the countdown for the launch had no mention of its historic significance. ISRO might be playing it down, making room for some cautious and deferred celebrations until after a successful launch. Rightly so.

Coming back to ISRO’s century launch, it will carry two satellites — the French SPOT-6 and Japanese PROITERES. PSLV C-21 will be lifted off Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) SHAR, Sriharikota as most of India turns on their television sets on Sunday — around 9:51 a.m. The two satellites are  expected to be propelled into an orbit of 655 km altitude at an inclination of 98.23 degrees. In the 13 years since PSLV has been undertaking business launches,  this one will also be its biggest ever commercial lift. The French satellite weighs 720 kg and the Japanese 15 kg.

Just how does ISRO count its missions considering that it launches foreign satellites and also its own satellites on foreign rockets?  An ISRO official solves the number crunching thus:  each ISRO rocket flight is considered one mission; an ISRO satellite launched by a foreign rocket is marked as one mission and; an Indian rocket (such as PSLV) launching a number of satellites built and owned by ISRO is marked as several missions — 2 if there are two satellites, 3 if there are 3 satellites.

So PSLV C-21 will be one mission — the one that strikes the ton for ISRO.

 

Post updated on September 9, 2012:

PSLV C-21 lifts off.{credit}ISRO{/credit}

ISRO’s 100th space mission PSLV C-21 was successfully launched from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh at 9:53 a.m. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who witnessed the launch, described the mission as a ‘spectacular success’. Soon after launch, the vehicle put the two foreign satellites into orbit.

As is the norm, ISRO chief K Radhakrishnan had offered prayers at the Lord Venkateswara Temple in Tirupati yesterday for the success of the historic mission.

 

Boson debate

Rolf-Dieter Heuer{credit}Subhra Priyadarshini{/credit}

Why’s the ‘boson’ of Higg’s boson written in lower case? Why hasn’t the Indian physicist Satyendra Nath Bose, after whom the celebrated particle is half named, not been awarded the Nobel Prize yet [12, 34]? Why isn’t India, despite her traditional strength in particle physics, not an associate member of the mother of all particle physics labs CERN?

The boson debate, which reached its crescendo after the discovery of the Higgs boson (or something consistent with it) in CERN this July, has not died down in the land of Bose, whose Bose-Einstein statistics has become the basis of most quantum mechanics as we know it today.

This weekend (September 2-3, 2012) CERN Director general Rolf-Dieter Heuer was in Kolkata, where Bose spent most of his working life. He confronted the seething rage among Bengali scientists for having forgotten the contribution of one of India’s foremost physicists to the now famous particle. And obviously, he was bombarded by these uncomfortable questions.

The level-headed, media savvy CERN chief, however, fielded these queries with characteristic guile, dousing the curiosity of India’s scientific community once and for all.

“India is like the “historic father” of the Higgs boson project.”

“It’s a pity Bose did not get the Nobel. His contribution to science is immense and not getting a Nobel doesn’t in any way undermine his genius.”

“The new particle is a member of the boson family. The name Higgs signifies it as a definitive particle and boson signifies that it belongs to the boson family.”

Great sound bytes which will take the debate nowhere but, coming from Heuer, might certainly help pacify those who revere Bose.

The CERN membership question has also been bugging India for a long time now. Heuer, who had earlier said it’s a matter of money — a commitment of 10 miliion Swiss francs annually — clarified that he hasn’t yet got any written communication to support India’s claim that the country is interested in joining the league of CERN nations.

The boson debate and the associate membership discussions have gone nowhere but, as of now, Heuer and the Indian government would like us to believe otherwise. There are indications that by the year-end India might take a step ahead in this regard but going by the trend of all things official, it still looks like the elusive Higgs boson — is it or is it not?